Eric Froton is previewing every Big Ten squad by looking back at their 2022 season, breaking down any changes in 2023, analyzing their rosters and handicapping their win total for the season.
In this installment, we look at the Rutgers University Scarlet Knights under two-time HC Greg Schiano.
HC - Greg Schiano (4th year) (14th Overall at RU)
OC - Kirk Ciarrocca (1st year)
DC - Joe Harasymiak (2nd year)
2022 Record: 4-8
Second Order Win Total: 4.0 (0.0)
2022 Over/Under: 4 Wins
Points/Yards Per Game: 17.4 points | 282 yards (154 pass | 128 rush)
Points/Yards Allowed: 29.3 points | 350 yards (207 pass |143 rush)
2023 SP+ Overall: 73rd
2023 SP+ Offense: 95th
2023 SP+ Defense: 50th
2022 SP+ Special Teams: 107th
Offensive Returning Production: 63% (69th)
Defensive Returning Production: 71% (32nd)
247Sports Avg. Offensive Player Rating: .8504 (61st)
247Sports Avg. Defensive Player Rating: .8453 (64th)
Pace of Play: 27.5 seconds per play (99th) | 62.2 plays per game (119th)
2023 Schedule Strength: 31st
Looking back at 2021 & 2022
When HC Greg Schiano first took over Rutgers back in 2000, he led the Scarlet Knights on a run where they won seven games or more in six of his last seven seasons before he departed to become HC of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His successor, Kyle Flood, kept up Rutgers’ winning ways for a couple of years before the wheels came off in 2015 with RU failing to garner five victories for the previous six years until Schiano did so in 2021. He fortified the foundation of the program with Rutgers’ 2022 class that ranked a very respectable 33rd nationally in terms of strength with four, four-star recruits and three, four-star transfers entering the fold last offseason.
Coming off a five-win 2021 season when the Scarlet Knights returned a robust 21 starters, RU took a step back on the experience front with just 11 returning starters to lean on while tackling the 10th toughest schedule in the country last year. Their 17.4 PPG average ranked 124th nationally while their total offense dropped 30 yards from 2021 to 282 YPG (127th). Those uninspiring numbers get even worse if you take out the 66-points they put up on hapless FCS opponent Wagner, who went 1-10 in 2022. Pick an offensive metric and Rutgers underperformed at it, as they went 3-and-out on a staggering 42% of drives (127th) while breaking explosive plays just 9% of the time (125th). The passing game was marred by inexperience at the QB position, with 2021 starter Noah Vedral missing the first five games thrusting Evan Simon into a brief starting role before OC Sean Gleeson turned the page to the future and gave the job to four-star rFr QB Gavin Wimsatt for the last five games (44% completion rate/5.1 YPA/45.3 PFF pass grade).
The lack of a cohesive passing offense was evidenced by a 32% pass success rate (122nd), 3.5 yards per pass attempt (129th) and a team QB Rating of 27.3 (125th). Schematically, they tried to stretch defenses vertically with 17% of their throws going 20+ yards downfield, but still averaged just 3.5 adjusted net yards per attempt, the third-worst rate in the country. Rutgers’ complete inability to convert third-and-long (15% = 126th) and third-and-medium situations (37% = 122nd) forced OC Gleeson to run the ball 66% of the time on standard downs (18th-most in FBS) to subsist drives. If there was a bright spot, it was the offensive line’s ability to execute in short-yardage/goal line situations. RU posted a 57% success rate inside the 10-yard line (19th) with a 75% goal line success rate (25th) in addition to earning above average marks in pressure allowed (2%) and blown block rate (1.3%).
Defensively they’ve improved drastically since allowing 37 PPG in 2019 before HC Schiano’s return, allowing 26 points per game during Year 1 in 2020, finishing with a commendable 46th overall defensive ranking according to SP+. In 2021, Schiano was very aggressive at the line, sacrificing big plays in order to challenge underneath routes and stifle opponents’ run game while ranking in the bottom-10 nationally in IsoPPP, marginal explosiveness and big play rate (13.6%). The benefit of that daring strategy is the RU secondary suffocated opponents with an elite 56% completion rate allowed (11th). It also allowed their stout defensive front to post the seventh highest stuff rate in the country (23%), while holding opponents to just 2.4 line yards per rush attempt (27th). RU also blitzed a lot bringing extra rushers 40% of the time (8th) which was effective in generating a 33% pressure rate (32nd), but too frequently didn’t get home as their 6.3% sack rate ranked only 80th nationally.
Last year the defense didn’t have the luxury of returning 10 starters, dropping their 25.6 PPG to 29.3, but actually decreased the total yardage allowed from 396-to-250 YPG, a great sign for 2023. After being bombarded by chunk plays the previous season, HC Schiano had enough of the Scarlet Knights getting beat over the top and led an overhaul of their defensive priorities. Rutgers cut their explosive play rate to 11% (45th) while charting 29th in marginal explosiveness and a sensational 14th overall in IsoPPP. The defensive backfield was largely responsible, as four starters returned who helped cut the team’s TD rate to 3.9% (28th) with an adjusted net YPA of 6.3 (32nd). Despite the secondary growing by leaps and bounds, the departure of three defensive line starters and the injury to team sack leader Mohamed Toure setback their previously strapping front four. Throw in a brand new set of starting linebackers who ranked 105th in LB havoc rate and it’s easy to see why Rutgers struggled to get home in passing situations, posting an insufficient 4.8% sack rate (101st). RU also struggled with a short-field, with a 63% goal line success rate (116th) and a 72% red zone TD rate that ranked a bitter 123rd.
Looking Ahead to 2023
When OC Sean Gleeson took over the offense in 2020, RU managed a commendable 26.7 PPG against an exclusively B10 schedule. That production plummeted to just 17.4 PPG with 282 yards of total offense last year, making Gleeson’s continued employment untenable. Insert former Minnesota/Penn State OC Kirk Ciarrocca, who led a two-touchdown improvement of the Gophers’ offense from 2017 (22.1 PPG) to 2019 (34.1 PPG). No matter how QBs Wimsatt/Simon perform, the offense has nowhere to go up from Noah Vedral who ranks last nationally since 2021 with only 23% of his pass attempts resulting in first downs. The 25th rated QB from the 2021 prep cycle, Wimsatt earned a 247Sports player rating of 91 and clearly has the most upside in the current QB room, despite the growing pains he experienced last season.
The QBs will be throwing to a brand new set of wideouts, as their top-three WRs hit the road. That being said, a wholesale receiver changeover might not be a bad thing, as both Sean Ryan (51.5% catch rate) and Shameen Jones (49.5% catch rate) ranked in the bottom-five in catch rate for Power 5 receivers who received at least 90 targets over the last two seasons. An ignominious distinction if there ever was one. To bolster this depleted posse of receivers, HC Schiano ports in Western Illinois deep threat Nasiem Bradley (6’2/205) who accrued 893 receiving yards at a 16.9 YPC clip in 2022. He also managed to corral a commitment from highly sought after DII transfer JaQuae Jackson (6’3/180), who finished with 77 receptions for 1,178 yards and 13 touchdowns last year with RU beating out Colorado, Miami and Texas A&M for his services. Jackson specifically cited HC Schiano and OC Ciarrocca’s history developing NFL-caliber players as a major factor in his decision. Though lacking in proven D1 production, I cannot imagine the passing game will be less effective than it was last season.
The RB room is on the way up, with true freshman Samuel Brown (6’1/220) leading the backfield committee with an exceptional 83.1 PFF run grade and 4.3 YPC through seven games last year before succumbing to injury. In his final game against Indiana, Brown received 28 carries for 101 yards and a touchdown to go with six broken tackles and 3.2 YAC. He will assuredly lead the team in rushing if he can stay on the field. Brown will be running behind a veteran offensive line that returns three starters and versatile swing tackle Reggie Sutton, who started 12 games in 2021 between RT and RG. Their 32.7% pressure rate allowed (109th) and 4.1 penalties per game (99th) will almost assuredly improve with 101 career line starts returning along with the hiring of longtime NFL OL coach Pat Flaherty.
The Scarlet Knights were -6 in turnover margin last year and cannot afford to make costly mistakes, as they are 0-8 when losing at least one fumble over the last two seasons (Nat Avg: .392). HC Schiano has made a concerted effort to bolster the offense with the offseason hires and transfers he brought in. How much they improve will depend on how quickly the passing game can get in sync.
Defensively Rutgers should be closer to the 2021 unit that allowed just 25.5 PPG thanks to a fully stocked D-line that loses just one starter and has a slew of promising contributors to work through the rotation. Returning Michigan transfer DE Aaron Lewis (58 tackles/98.3% tackle rate/9.0 TFL/32 pressures) was the primary catalyst for Rutgers’ stellar 34.5% pressure rate last season that ranked 13th in the nation. They also bring in highly regarded former Ole Miss DT Isaiah Iton (6’2/290) to solidify what should be a legitimately staunch front four.
A neophyte linebacker group that took it’s lumps last year (3.3% havoc rate = 105th) brings back two impact starters who are now upperclassmen. Leading tackler WLB Deion Jennings (91 tackles/7.5 TFL/6 PBU/16% tackle rate per snap) and MLB Tyreem Powell (71 tackles/91.5% tackle rate/4.5 TFL) started every game and are now fully apprised of their defensive obligations. Their standout secondary that ranked 26th in passing marginal explosiveness has both cornerbacks back in the fold, with All-Big Ten honorable mention CB Max Melton (44% comp rate/3.7 adj. Yards per attempt/12 PBU) locked in as the CB1. SS Desmond Igbinosun (55 tackles/45% comp rate/.49 yards per cover snap) is dialed in to start alongside Minnesota transfer Flip Dixon, who started six games for the Gophers. With eight starters back, I have confidence that Rutgers will have a more balanced defense that can both stifle the run and limit big plays through the air.
Analyzing Rutgers’ Win Total
Following 2022’s hellscape schedule that ranked 10th overall in terms of difficulty, Rutgers gets dealt @Wisconsin and @Iowa out of the B10 West to go with a reeling Northwestern in Week 1. They host Temple Week 2 after narrowly escaping with a 16-14 victory over the Owls last year, then swap out BC-for-Virginia Tech at home in a game that is close to a toss up against a VT squad that is also grasping for an offensive identity. A pair of likely ill-fated trips to @Michigan in Week 4 and Wisconsin Week 6 loom, with FCS doormat Wagner sandwiched in between. Michigan State comes to New Brunswick, in a game I like the Knights to pull out, before another very palatable contest against @Indiana, then the Week 9 Bye for a recharge. RU is going to need the reset, since they run the gauntlet against Ohio State, @Penn State and @Iowa before hosting east-coast B10 East rival Maryland.
The continued development of the front seven is going to be key, as Rutgers is 2-12 ATS (.143) since 2021 when allowing 120+ rushing yards, 10th-worst in FBS (Avg: .349). RU will need to do damage in the first 8 games before the tumultuous stretch run against the upper crust of the Big Ten. Despite the challenging slate, there’s a very realistic path to 4-4 heading into the bye with a potential upset versus Maryland at home in Week 13 for the backdoor cover opportunity. I’m backing Rutgers to clear their 3.5 Wins Over/Under behind a rock solid defense and an improved offense led by promising QB Gavin Wimsatt.