Zachary Krueger previews the fantasy outlooks of Sam Howell, Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin, and the rest of the Washington Commanders.
2022 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 18.9 (24th)
Total yards per game: 330.3 (20th)
Plays per game: 67.1 (4th)
Pass attempts + sacks per game: 35.4 (18th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.05 (24th)
Rush attempts per game: 31.6 (4th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.09 (23rd)
Coaching Staff
Few coaches enter 2023 under more pressure than Ron Rivera. Since being hired by Washington in 2020, Rivera has led the Commanders to a 22-27-1 record that includes one playoff berth in a year the team went 7-9 and won the division in a down NFC East. Rivera’s struggles can almost exclusively be blamed on a quarterback carousel he can’t seem to get off. When Sam Howell suits up in Week 1 against the Cardinals, Howell will be the fourth different quarterback to open Week 1 for Rivera and the sixth different quarterback in six years to start Week 1 for the Washington football franchise.
In addition to Rivera’s underwhelming start, the Commanders are also under new ownership. The team’s sale from Dan Snyder to a group led by Josh Harris, who got off on the right foot with fans out of the gate, spells new hope for a franchise whose hopes were dashed by Snyder through 24 years of ineptitude and controversy.
If Rivera hopes to keep his job beyond this season, he’ll need to impress new ownership with a season far better than what he’s provided. To do that, he hired two-time Super Bowl champion Eric Bieniemy as his offensive coordinator. Despite his success in Kansas City, Bieniemy has been overlooked in head coaching searches for the last three offseasons.
Years of success alongside Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have seemingly worked against Bieniemy in his search for a head coaching role. His involvement with the offensive game plan before and during the game has been regularly questioned, and of course, having Mahomes at quarterback makes life easier for all involved. One of the most decorated offensive coordinators in the league, Bieniemy has now accepted the challenge of trying to win a competitive NFC East alongside Ron Rivera with a fifth-round quarterback to lead the way.
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Passing Game
QB: Sam Howell, Jacoby Brissett, Jake Fromm
WR: Terry McLaurin, Marcus Kemp
WR: Jahan Dotson, Dyami Brown
WR: Curtis Samuel, Dax Milne
TE: Logan Thomas, John Bates, Cole Turner
A year’s worth of practices and a one-game start against the Cowboys in Week 18 was all Sam Howell needed to earn the trust of Rivera and company heading into the season. The former North Carolina Tar Heel was once regarded as a potential first-round talent ahead of the 2021 NFL Draft, but a down 2021 season at UNC resulted in Howell slipping to the fifth round last season.
A true gamer in every sense of the word, Howell’s college resumé is chock full of college production. He was the first true freshman to win the starting quarterback job for the Tar Heels and went on to throw for 10,283 yards and 92 touchdowns in his three seasons as a starter. In his final season, he also unexpectedly rushed for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns after running for 181 yards and six touchdowns in his first two seasons combined.
In his lone start against the Cowboys, Howell rushed five times for 35 yards on a touchdown and connected with Terry McLaurin on a 52-yard pass. At worst, Howell has the tools to develop into a serviceable quarterback. However, Rivera and company hope to tap into the potential he displayed at UNC, which once had scouts viewing him as a first-round pick, to see how far he can take them.
Challenging Howell for the job is veteran Jacoby Brissett, who spent last season with the Cleveland Browns after previous stints with the Colts and Dolphins. During Deshaun Watson’s 11-game suspension, Brissett had an opportunity to start for the Browns and was on pace to throw for a career-high 4031-19-9. Playing with arguably the best roster of his seven-year career, Brissett proved to be a high-end game manager who can limit mistakes and sacks. When he gave way to Watson in Week 13, Brissett ranked 11th in EPA/play (0.116) and was tied for 12th in QB success rate (48.2 percent). A 4-7 record doesn’t fully reflect how the offense functioned under Brissett, as the Browns averaged 23.6 points per game during his starts but gave up 26 points per game. For some perspective, the Seahawks closed the year as the ninth-highest-scoring offense at 23.6 points per game, while the Vikings gave up the third-most points per game in 2022 at 25.1.
Under Brissett, the Browns were a top-10 offense in both points and yards per game, although his fantasy upside remained low at just 12.9 fantasy points per game. Both Howell and Brissett have mid-QB2 upside heading into this season. Whoever is under center should be a justifiable start in 2QB and Superflex leagues. However, if Bieniemy brings the aggressive style of passing we saw at Kansas City (64.8 percent early down pass rate), the ceiling for either quarterback could see a slight boost.
Few teams have a receiving corps as deep as the Commanders regarding offensive weapons. Terry McLaurin, the group leader, has ranked among the league’s best since entering the league as a third-round pick in 2019. McLaurin’s 4,281 yards are good for the 12th-most of any receiver through their first four years since 2000, and his 80.6 fantasy points over expected rank 23rd amongst receivers since 2019. His on-field efficiency is particularly interesting when you consider the quarterbacks he’s played with over that span combined for -134.3 fantasy points over expected.
Despite several marks of success to start his career, McLaurin’s fantasy upside has been capped by poor quarterback play. He’s finished as a WR3 or worse in 62 percent of the games he’s played in. Still, we can expect him to be prioritized as the offense’s focal point, and his ability to win in all areas of the field makes him an intriguing fantasy asset. He’s never finished higher than 20th in fantasy points per game, but an explosive No. 1 target in a Bieniemy-led offense always has a chance to be profitable for fantasy. He’s currently going as a low-end WR2 in early best ball leagues but is a favorite to outperform his ADP if his quarterback situation proves marginally better than what he’s had thus far.
Playing opposite McLaurin is Jahan Dotson. The second-year receiver turned in a solid 35-523-7 line in 12 games and could be in for a breakout season if the offense shows drastic improvement. As sure-handed a receiver as any in the league, Dotson hauled in 61.1 percent of his contested targets last season and was a heavily-utilized threat in the red zone. Dotson saw 33.9 percent of his targets come inside the 20-yard line — the fifth-highest total among qualified receivers (min. 50 targets). He converted six targets into touchdowns, which helped him finish second among those same receivers in fantasy points per touch (3.48) behind only Gabe Davis — weirdly.
High-end touchdown production will inevitably prop up any receiver’s fantasy totals, but Dotson’s overall red zone usage and ability to convert those targets into scores is encouraging. His overall workload should only increase in 2023, giving him a chance to produce as a high-end WR3 or better for fantasy.
Veteran receiver Curtis Samuel remains in the fold and could be a wild card in Bieniemy’s offense. In his most successful season as a pro (2020), Samuel saw 71.4 percent of his snaps come from the slot. It’s no coincidence that his second-most successful season (2022) also featured heavy slot usage (71.2 percent). In addition to lining up as a receiver, Samuel’s ability to play out of the backfield and take end-arounds for chunk yards makes him an interesting but hard-to-rely-on fantasy asset in seasonal leagues. After opening last season with two-straight top-12 finishes, Samuel never finished higher than WR19 in any of his remaining 15 games. Samuel is a fine late-round stash in half and full-PPR formats but could be difficult to trust as anything more than an occasional streamer.
At tight end, Bieniemy goes from an All-World producer in Travis Kelce to a former quarterback who converted to tight end and has subsequently carved out a nice career for himself. Logan Thomas won’t be putting up Kelce-like numbers for the Commanders this season. Still, he’s a tight end capable of moving the chains and putting up the occasional double-digit fantasy week. Age and injuries have taken their toll on Thomas in recent years, as his production has steadily declined since his breakout in 2020 (72-670-6). Second-year tight end Cole Turner could earn receiving work over Thomas this season, but that situation will have to be ironed out in camp. Thomas’ fantasy upside is like most tight ends going late in fantasy drafts. He’s a guy who could produce in the right situation but is equally as capable of providing a two-catch stinker on any given week. You’re probably not starting Thomas because you want to but because you have to.
Rushing Game
RB: Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson, Chris Rodriguez
OL (L-R): Charles Leno, Chris Paul, Nick Gates, Sam Cosmi, Andrew Wylie
Ron Rivera went out and got his three yards in a cloud of dust running back when he selected Brian Robinson in the third round of last year’s draft. An unfortunate start to Robinson’s career delayed him getting on the field until Week 5 against the Titans. However, the rookie finished the season with a rushing line of 205-797-2, averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
Among 42 qualified running backs (min. 100 carries), Robinson finished 35th in yards after contact per attempt (2.69) and was 36th in breakaway rush yards (116). In his defense, PFF graded Washington’s run-blocking units among the worst in the league (55.6 run block grade, ranked 23rd), and Antonio Gibson ranked lower than Robinson in both categories.
Still, it can’t be ignored that Robinson was never profiled as a high-end running back prospect like Alabama running backs Mark Ingram, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Najee Harris. As a college recruit, Robinson ranked as this group’s lowest running back prospect and was a fifth-year breakout who totaled 1,361 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in his first four seasons. His lack of receiving prowess further caps his upside in half and full-PPR formats. A second-year leap could be in store for Robinson, but that will somewhat depend on an offensive line that received marginal improvements at best — and that’s putting it nicely. He’s a favorite to handle goal-line work and had an expected rushing touchdown total of 5.63 last season per PFF. He profiles as a low-end RB3 who will provide an occasional spike week when he finds the end zone.
While Gibson has been an average runner at best for his career, he stands to be a sneaky PPR option in fantasy. Gone is J.D. McKissic, whose 150 receptions since 2020 rank as the fifth-most among all running backs, while his 5.8 targets per game were good for fourth-most. A former wide receiver who converted to running back, Gibson somehow managed to finish with the 11th-most receptions (124) among running backs of the last three years and stands to see a significant share of the targets in the backfield this year.
Looking at expected fantasy points at the running back position over that span, Washington’s running backs rank third in expected fantasy points via the pass, trailing only the Chargers and Buccaneers, who have both provided elite pass-catching backs for fantasy purposes. With the potential to see career-highs in both targets and receptions, Gibson’s receiving upside could put him squarely on the map as a top-24 fantasy back this season.
The only running back of note added to Washington’s backfield was Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez, who the team drafted in the sixth round. Rodriguez profiles primarily as an early-down grinder who will most likely contribute on special teams early in the season. Any offensive opportunities he receives will come in garbage time or from injuries to a player ahead of him on the depth chart.
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Win Total
Bet MGM Over/Under: 6.5
Pick: Under
The Commanders finished 8-8-1 last season, staying in the playoff race up until Week 17 when a loss to the Browns knocked them from contention. For multiple reasons, this season figures to be a bit more challenging. Putting aside the questions at quarterback, the Commanders face the ninth-toughest schedule based on projected Vegas win totals per Sharp Football Analysis, and they play in an NFC East that includes three playoff teams from last season, which includes the runner-up in Super Bowl LVII. A tough schedule is only more difficult when you consider they’re currently home underdogs on DraftKings in six of their eight home games and are favored just two times on the moneyline. A stout defense could stifle a handful of opposing offenses this season. Still, the Commanders can’t afford to finish below league average in scoring if they hope to compete against this schedule. While I like several weapons within this offense, betting on an unproven fifth-round quarterback and a head coach with three winning seasons in 12 years is too much for me.