Last week, the NFL announced its official list of invitees for the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine. Next week, 321 NFL hopefuls will descend upon Indianapolis in hopes of impressing NFL scouts and coaches enough to hear their name called on draft day come April.
It’s no secret that the combine is only a small part of the NFL Draft process, but it makes for a fun week for analysts who like to tie college production metrics to athleticism to see who may or may not have what it takes to excel at the NFL level.
To get us prepped for next week’s combine, I wanted to take a look at some participants at fantasy-relevant positions who we could find ourselves targeting later this summer. I’ll begin today by looking at quarterbacks and tight ends in this article and run things back with running backs and wide receivers on Friday.
A look at the complete list of quarterback and tight end prospects can be found below, courtesy of NFL.com, which I linked to at the beginning of the article.
NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, SportsReference.com.
NOTE 2.0: Quarterback rushing yards come courtesy of PFF, which, unlike traditional CFB statistics, does not discount rushing yards lost via sacks.
Quarterbacks
Caleb Williams, USC
Unless you’ve lived under a rock the last three years, you know who Caleb Williams is by now. Williams was a five-star recruit from the 2021 class who started his career at Oklahoma before following head coach Lincoln Riley to USC at the start of the 2022 season.
Long thought to be the No. 1 overall pick of whichever draft class he chose to join, Williams has, by all accounts, lived up to the hype that followed him into the college game. After unseating former teammate Spencer Rattler at Oklahoma as a true freshman, Williams went on to throw for 4,539-42-5 in his first season at USC, winning the Heisman Trophy while leading the Trojans to an 11-3 record and an appearance in the Pac-12 Championship game, which they ultimately lost to Utah.
Considered by some to be the next Patrick Mahomes, it’s safe to say Williams has more to lose than he does to prove at this year’s combine. He amassed over 10,000 passing yards in his career, threw 93 touchdowns to just 14 interceptions, and has rushing upside to spare. Williams rushed for 1,539 yards and 27 touchdowns over three seasons and is expected to turn in a solid 40-time if he opts to run.
Drake Maye, North Carolina
UNC’s Drake Maye is one of a handful of quarterbacks expected to challenge for the QB2 designation of this year’s class. After spending his true freshman season behind former Tar Heel and current Washington Commander Sam Howell, Maye took the reins in 2022 and never looked back.
Like Williams, Maye is another early declare from the 2021 recruiting class and was the consensus QB9 of his class according to 247Sports.com’s composite rankings.
Maye threw for 4,321-38-7 in his first year as the Tar Heels’ starter and followed that up with a line of 3,608-24-9, but played in two fewer games. Like Williams, Maye also totaled more than 1,500 rushing yards and added another 16 scores on the ground, although we shouldn’t expect his rushing upside to be a staple of his game. Per PFF, his eight percent big-time throw rate ranks the highest of any quarterback invited to the combine, and his 61.9 percent air yards percentage is second only to Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman.
His decision-making on the field has been drawn into question at times, as he’s proven prone to careless interceptions and sacks. While neither of those will show up in the combine, it’s something to keep in mind as teams go through the evaluation process.
Jayden Daniels, LSU
Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner, Jayden Daniels, saw his draft stock take a meteoric rise in 2023.
Considered by many to be the top dual-threat quarterback in the draft, Daniels entered 2023 with a career passing line of 8,928 -49-16 through his first four seasons but ripped off a 3,811-40-4 line in his final season at LSU.
As a true freshman at Arizona State, Daniels flashed early, throwing for 2,943-17-2 while adding another 515 yards and three scores on the ground for a Sun Devils team that went 8-5 but ranked 96th amongst 130 teams in offensive scoring. He benefitted from having future first-round pick Brandon Aiyuk and running back Eno Benjamin as reliable pass-catching options during his freshman season, but saw his production dip over four games in a COVID-stricken 2020 season with Aiyuk and Benjamin gone.
After another down season in 2021, Daniels transferred to LSU, where things started to turn a corner, and he hit the peak of his powers in 2023.
Daniels is an explosive athlete who has a chance to run a 40-yard dash somewhere in the 4.4 range. Among the quarterbacks invited to the combine, he has the lowest turnover-worthy play rate at 1.6 percent. While his accuracy has been a concern at times, his 73.6 adjusted completion percentage also ranks fifth amongst the 14 invitees, and he topped out with a 79.6 percent adjCOMP% in his final season.
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
When it comes to debates over this year’s quarterback class, the most hotly-contested debates will likely start and end with Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. For what it’s worth, the league is reportedly far higher on McCarthy than most would have expected this early in the process.
Another early declare, McCarthy spent three seasons in a Jim Harbaugh offense that ran at a 58 percent rate or higher every season. He threw for 6,231-48-11 over that span while rushing for 894 yards and 10 scores. It’s safe to say he was anything but a box score stuffer.
A common argument against McCarthy is that if he were better, Michigan would have utilized him more in the passing game, but what he did through the air when asked to make plays often goes overlooked.
McCarthy is one of three quarterbacks at the combine who boasts a 60-percent air yards percentage or higher and is tied for the fourth-highest big-time throw rate at six percent. His 74.2 percent adjCOMP% ranks third amongst invitees, and he’s never had an aDOT below 9.4 in any of his seasons.
To his credit, McCarthy also showed steady improvement as a passer every season, as evidenced by a quick look at his year-by-year stats. Amongst quarterbacks with at least 40 deep pass attempts last season, his 54.3 percent completion rate was second only to Jayden Daniels (63.6 percent), while his 58.7 percent adjCOMP% also ranked second.
If you consider sack avoidance a skill, McCarthy ranks near the top of the class with a pressure-to-sack rate of 14.2 percent. He has enough athleticism to extend plays and make throws off-script, but his arm and overall throwing ability will be under scrutiny at the combine as teams look to see what limited work we saw on tape flashes during workouts. McCarthy has good size at 6-foot-3, but he’s also listed as 202 pounds on Michigan’s site. It’s a mild concern, but an NFL training staff should be able to help him bulk up and add good weight after the draft.
Don’t be surprised if, in the coming months, you see McCarthy discussed as anything from a top-10 pick to a third-round project — or perhaps later. His lack of college counting numbers will be difficult for some to see past. How his career shapes out will prove to be a positive reinforcement or scathing indictment on many evaluators’ draft processes. He may have the most to gain or lose at the combine and his impending Pro Day.
Bo Nix, Oregon
I scoured the internet to find anybody who saw Bo Nix throw anything other than screen passes during his two years at Oregon and came up empty.
While I say this in jest, Nix’s increased completion percentage from 61.2 percent at Auburn to 74.7 percent at Oregon can likely be attributed to the copious amounts of screens he threw during his two seasons with the Ducks.
Of the 654 passes Nix attempted at Oregon, 29.4 percent of his throws came on screen passes. In 2023, he led all FBS quarterbacks with 749 yards from screen passes. He ranked 14th in the nation with 578 yards from screens in 2022. It’s widely believed that his turnaround can be more attributed to a change in scheme than his overall development as a passer.
Our own college football analyst and betting prop king, Eric Froton, came away unimpressed by Nix at the Senior Bowl, citing a lack of accuracy on his intermediate throws and a preference for checking down in team drills. Froton was one of several analysts to voice similar concerns throughout the week.
Nix must show he can make all of the required throws at the NFL level to be a viable starter, which he’ll have a chance to do at the combine. An impressive showing could convince a team to use a late first-round pick on him, but Nix is likely projecting as more of a Day 2 pick as it stands now.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers, Georgia
In this year’s draft, Brock Bowers is to the tight end position what Caleb Williams appears to be at the quarterback position. He’s a virtual lock to be the No. 1 tight end off the board in April and brings one of the more productive college resumés of any tight end in the last.
In three seasons at Georgia, Bowers amassed 177 receptions for 2,546 yards and 26 touchdowns. His 14.4 YPR ranks just below the 14.9 YPR that Kyle Pitts averaged during his time at Florida. Bowers has also proven elite after the catch, averaging 8.4 YAC/REC while forcing missed tackles at a 29.4 percent rate — narrowly edging Sam LaPorta’s MTF rate during his days at Iowa.
Bowers broke out as a true freshman at Georgia at the raw age of 19, totaling 56 receptions for 882 yards and 13 touchdowns on 71 targets. Had he been eligible for the 2023 draft, his first two years of production, coupled with his size and intangibles, may have been enough to make him the No. 1 tight end off the board in a class that featured productive tight ends like Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer.
Like Kincaid, Bowers also profiles as a tight end who will produce in the slot. He ran 52.2 percent of his routes from the slot and saw 10.6 percent of his targets as a slot receiver. For some comparison, Kincaid ran 48.8 percent of his routes from the slot and had a slot target rate of 10.7 percent.
Wherever he’s drafted, Bowers should immediately be in line to earn TE1 snaps at the pro level. His elite breakout age, advanced metrics, and intangibles could make him a savvy pick in fantasy drafts for fantasy managers who punted the position early on.
Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas
It took me little to no time to fall in love with Texas tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders. Unlike Bowers, Sanders didn’t get a chance to show his offensive chops until his sophomore season, when he went off for 54-613-5.
With a career line of 100-1,304-7, Sanders doesn’t exactly rival Bowers in raw counting numbers, but his breakout age of 19.7 is only slightly later than Bowers’, while his 13.0 YPR is also very strong. Interestingly, Sanders’ 9.1 aDOT is slightly higher than Bowers, while his 3.9 drop rate on 142 targets also bests the class’s No. 1 tight end by a slim margin.
Sanders played a more traditional inline role with the Longhorns, running 62.1 percent of his routes inline and just 23.4 percent of his routes from the slot. However, with a limited 34 targets from the slot, Sanders still managed 20 receptions for 238 yards and one touchdown for his career while garnering an 11.1 aDOT on said targets. Touted as a solid route runner and boasting strong abilities after the catch, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sanders see more opportunities from the slot at the pro levels.
Listed at 6-foot-4, 243 pounds on the Longhorns’ site, Sanders has plenty of size and has utilized it effectively in the passing game, hauling in 53.6 percent of his 28 contested targets. A strong combine won’t propel him past Bowers as far as the draft is concerned, but it could lock him in as the TE2 of the class.
Cade Stover, Ohio State
A five-year player at Ohio State who was recruited as a linebacker, Cade Stover made the switch to tight end after his freshman season but didn’t begin producing until 2022 when he went for 36-406-5. Stover will be 24 at the start of the season, which isn’t surprising given his five collegiate seasons, but two productive years at tight end have been enough for some outlets to rank him among the top three tight ends in this year’s class.
Stover is a physical player after the catch, as evidenced by his 21.7 percent missed tackles forced rate and 6.6 YAC/REC. Amongst Power Five tight ends (min. 50 targets) last season, Stover’s 284 yards after the catch ranked seventh-most in the nation, while his 79.4 PFF receiving grade was good for sixth-best.
With plenty of size (6'4/251) to handle the physicality of the pro game, Stover’s limited time as a tight end could make for a slight learning curve at the next level. It’s hard to know how he’ll project for the 2024 fantasy season, but Stover is an interesting player to watch in the coming months.
Jaheim Bell, Florida State
Bell doesn’t exactly fit the mold when it comes to a traditional tight end role. His blocking will be a concern for NFL scouts, which will admittedly be concerning for fantasy purposes, but teams will be intrigued by his overall size and athleticism.
With an 87.9 PFF receiving grade, Bell offers more than enough as a pass-catcher. He totaled 95 catches for 1,291 yards and nine touchdowns in his career, averaging 13.6 YPR and an impressive 9.3 YAC/REC. His YAC/REC ranks second among any tight end of the last three draft classes, while his 2.22 YPRR is good for fifth-best.
Bell also forced an absurd 36 missed tackles on 95 career receptions — good for an MTF rate of 38.3 percent.
Viewed as more of an “offensive weapon,” Bell played 41.3 percent of his receiving snaps from the slot and ran a career-high 132 routes in his final season.
Bell won’t be taken seriously as a “true tight end,” even though he’ll likely be classified as such at the next level. However, his ability to fill the ever-popular “big slot” role at the NFL level will entice teams.
