Every week of the 2025 NFL regular season, I’ll use this space to highlight teams facing various funnel defenses and fantasy options who could benefit.
What’s a Funnel Defense?
A funnel defense, in case you’re wondering, is a defense that faces an unusually high rate of pass attempts or rushes. I’ll take a close look at how opponents are playing these defenses in neutral game script — when the game is within a touchdown either way — and how good or bad these rush and pass defenses have been of late.
Identifying funnel defenses is hardly an exact science, and whacked-out game script can always foil our best-laid plans. It happens. I’ve found it useful in recent seasons to analyze matchups through this lens to see if there are any useful additions to the always-agonizing start-sit process we put ourselves through every week.
This week’s column is a little different, since traditional redraft fantasy leagues are mostly over. I’ve focused on games that have at least one team with something to play for. Prognosticating a totally meaningless game is a fool’s errand, or so I’ve been told. I’ve also included some DFS thoughts in case you’re making some Week 18 lineups to feel alive in the aftermath of your redraft season.
▶ Pass Funnel Matchups
Jaguars vs. Titans
Jacksonville still has quite a bit to play for as Liam Cohen takes no prisoners in this second half of the season, fueled by a bitterness only a Jaguars head coach can exude. This isn’t a criticism of Coen: Jags faithful love the Us vs. The World stuff.
Last week I pointed to the Saints’ matchup against the increasingly pass-funnel Tennessee defense and it worked out pretty well: New Orleans was 2 percent over its expected pass rate — with a top-20 neutral pass rate on the week — and Tyler Shough went for 333 yards and two touchdowns on 27 attempts. Look for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to follow suit and lean toward the pass in Week 18 against a Titans defense that has seen opponents pass the ball at a 60 percent clip since Week 10 (third highest in the league). Only the Broncos and Cowboys have faced a higher pass rate over expected since Week 10.
Lots of T-Law drop backs means plentiful targets for Jakobi Meyers, Brenton Strange, and Parker Washington, who now has two straight games as the Jags’ air yards eater while Brian Thomas, Jr. once again fades into irrelevance. Washington, while running a route on 80 percent of the team’s drop backs — the same as BTJ — leads Jacksonville with a 39 percent air yards share over the past two games.
Parker Washington has been the #Jaguars No. 1 WR in the last two weeks with back-to-back 100-yard games.
— Jared Feinberg (@Jared_NFLDraft) December 30, 2025
James Gladstone will have to look into extending No. 11 this offseason. pic.twitter.com/e41UAlSmlL
Washington has a stunning 48 percent of the team’s receiving yards over those two outings thanks to a few big downfield plays. Lawrence has targeted Washington on nearly 30 percent of his pass routes over those two games. That, to me, suggests Washington is a priority for Lawrence, while Thomas — targeted on 13 percent of his routes over the past two weeks — is not. Washington’s 12.5 air yards per target is not exactly indicative of a high-variance fantasy profile. He could continue to cook in Week 18 against a Titans secondary allowing the fifth highest drop back success rate in 2025.
For DFS purposes, a Jaguars giga-stack is in play, though it will likely be popular in large-field tournaments. This might look something like: Lawrence, Washington, Meyers, Strange, and maybe even Travis Etienne if you want all the Jacksonville touchdowns. They have a 30-point implied total, after all.
Seahawks vs. 49ers
I don’t feel fantastic about projecting the Seattle offense as pass-first after the Hawks have been stubbornly balanced all season. The Seahawks in 2025 have a 51 percent pass rate and a 54 percent pass rate in neutral situations (when the game is within one score).
Against these Niners in Week 1, the Seahawks went mega run-heavy: They were 9 percent below their expected pass rate, leading to just 23 Sam Darnold pass attempts. That was the game that saw Jaxon Smith-Njigba account for 91 percent of the Seahawks’ air yards and 58 percent of the team’s targets, the sort of pass-game domination we might never see again.
But here’s the thing: A mere three defenses have faced a higher pass rate over expected than the Niners since Week 10; seven of eight San Francisco opponents have been (well) over their expected pass rate over that stretch as opposing offensive coordinators dial up (relatively) pass-heavy game plans to attack a 49ers defense allowing the NFL’s seventh highest drop back EPA since Week 8. Nearly 70 percent of the yards gained against the Niners this season have come through the air, the third highest mark in the league. Only five defenses have faced more air yards per game than the 49ers since the start of November.
The Seahawks have eased off the wildly run-heavy stuff they deployed in the season’s opening month as coaches have learned to trust Darnold as something slightly more than a game manager. That Darnold has shown signs of late-season collapse doesn’t help my argument here, I know.
While there’s little chance the Hawks will have a +10 percent PROE game in Week 18, I think there’s a decent shot Darnold sees an uptick in drop backs and attempts in a game with a 49.5-point total, the third highest of the week. Obviously this would be tremendous for Smith-Njigba — the Only Game In Town for Seattle’s passing offense — but it could also benefit pass catchers operating from the slot. The 49ers defense has been tormented by slot guys in 2025. We saw Tyler Warren and Josh Downs combine for 18 targets against the Niners in Week 15 and Luther Burden and Colston Loveland post fat stat lines (14 combined receptions on 18 targets) against them in Week 16. All these guys run a lot of routes from the slot.
That could mean Cooper Kupp sees a bump in targets in Week 18. He leads the Seahawks with a 50 percent slot rate, and in recent weeks, he’s the only Seattle pass catcher operating consistently from the slot position. Though Kupp’s 17 percent targets per route run since Week 10 does not inspire great confidence, I think he’s in play thanks to this matchup.
A Seahawks DFS stack would be something like Darnold, JSN, Kupp, and perhaps AJ Barner, who is second on the team in targets per route over the past seven weeks. Rasheed Shahid isn’t in this conversation because he’s running about 45 percent of the routes and seeing almost no air yards.
▶ Run Funnel Matchups
Falcons vs. Saints
There’s every reason for the Falcons to unleash the run heaviest attack anyone has ever seen in Week 18 against the Saints. One of those reasons: The New Orleans defense is a run funnel, seeing a 51 percent neutral pass rate against them since Week 10. The Saints have faced the league’s sixth lowest pass rate over expected in 2025.
It’s a nice little setup for Bijan Robinson, who needs a tidy 255 total yards in Week 18 to break Chris Johnson’s single season record for yards from scrimmage. It’s a 0.1 percentile outcome, but I think it’s in play if Robinson gets to 100 total yards by the half. This, of course, would probably require nonstop touches for Bijan as he follows up on his 195-yard rushing effort against the Rams (with 200 yards after contact!).
Lots of rushing for Atlanta would necessarily put Tyler Allgeier in play, I suppose. His workload could be compromised if the Falcons are truly allowing Robinson to chase history against a Saints defense that is middling by every metric.
This kind of game plan would make it tough (impossible?) for Drake London or Kyle Pitts to be anything more than floor options in Week 18. Last week against the Rams, the Falcons were 18.5 percent below their expected pass rate and London saw two targets while Pitts had three. David Sills V led all Atlanta pass catchers with five looks from Kirk Cousins. Falcons pass catchers totaled 163 air yards against LA. That’s a rough environment for wideouts.
This analysis, as always, falls apart if game script goes sideways and Tyler Shough stays hot against the Falcons and forces Atlanta into a pass-heavy situation.
Lions vs. Bears
It’s tough to know what to expect from this collapsed Detroit offense as it plays out the string of a disastrous season for Dan Campbell’s crew. I don’t see Campbell as a coach who will mail it in though, especially when he can mess things up royally for his former offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson.
So let’s assume the Lions play all out here in Week 18. They should be run heavy against a Chicago defense that has been one of the most reliable run funnels of the past month and a half. Bears opponents have a 51 percent neutral pass rate over that span, the third lowest. Five of Chicago’s past seven opponents have been below their expected pass rate.
The Lions in Week 2 against the Bears were 1 percent below their expected pass rate, with a 41 percent pass rate in a 52-21 blowout win against their former OC. Jared Goff had five touchdown passes on 23 completions. It was a wild thing to behold. Detroit tormented the Bears on the ground, racking up 177 yards and two scores on just 30 carries. Jahmyr Gibbs led the way with 94 yards on 12 carries; David Montgomery had 11 rushes for 57 yards.
Things have changed since then. The Lions have faltered thanks largely to offensive line injuries that have left Goff vulnerable to pressure and Gibbs hasn’t had the sort of running lanes he had in September. Even so, this is a good spot for Gibbs — and to a far less extent — Montgomery. The Bears are allowing a league-high 2.7 yards before contact per rushing attempt and a 55 percent rushing success rate, the second highest in the NFL. Only three defenses have a lower rushing stuff rate than the Bears through Week 17. It all adds up to a pronounced run funnel defense that practically invites opponents to establish it from start to finish.
Lots of neutral game script and the rushing volume that might come with it would be a knock to Detroit pass catchers, though Amon-Ra St. Brown somehow survives every game script. This would mostly impact Jameson Williams and Isaac TesLaa, who has matched Jamo in targets (11) over the team’s past two outings while outdoing him in first-read targets.
