Before we get into the efficiency rankings, I have to mention that rushing efficiency is largely reliant on a running back’s environment. Dimitry Gordeev, the $50,000 winner of the NFL’s Big Data Bowl, said, “At the moment of handoff, it is not statistically important who is the ball carrier. It is important what is the situation on the field, driven by starting formations and movements of the players prior to handoff, including rusher’s movement.” Basically, a running back has control of how fast he can run, how strong he is, and how good his vision is, but where blockers and defenders are at the time of the handoff is far more important to predicting the success of a carry than how talented that player is. This means that the most talented running backs will NOT be the most efficient runners in a given season, and that the most efficient runners are NOT necessarily the most talented running backs. How good their play callers and offensive lines are will play into these rushing efficiency rankings. Keep that in mind.[[ad:athena]]
2019 NFL Rushing Efficiency
There were 70 players with at least 50 non-QB scramble carries last season. Here’s how they ranked in the following four efficiency metrics: “EPA per Carry” - analyzes the real-football value of a carry using expected points added, “Success Rate” - how often a carry improves his team’s winning percentage, “PPR Fantasy Points per Carry” - it underestimates the randomness of TDs but is useful, and “Yards per Carry” - the quickest and easiest way to measure rushing efficiency.
Player | Team | EPA/Carry | Success Rate | PPR/Carry | Yards/Carry | Carries |
K.Murray | ARI | 0.33 (1) | 53% (2) | 1.14 (1) | 6.87 (1) | 53 (66) |
L.Jackson | BAL | 0.28 (2) | 53% (1) | 0.99 (2) | 6.82 (2) | 115 (38) |
K.Drake | ARI | 0.16 (3) | 43% (9) | 0.92 (3) | 5.26 (7) | 122 (36) |
J.Wilkins | IND | 0.13 (4) | 43% (7) | 0.84 (9) | 6.02 (3) | 51 (70) |
M.Ingram | BAL | 0.12 (5) | 45% (6) | 0.80 (12) | 5.02 (13) | 202 (20) |
C.Edmonds | ARI | 0.12 (6) | 42% (11) | 0.91 (6) | 5.05 (12) | 60 (60) |
R.Penny | SEA | 0.07 (7) | 42% (12) | 0.85 (8) | 5.69 (4) | 65 (56) |
G.Edwards | BAL | 0.07 (8) | 42% (10) | 0.62 (33) | 5.35 (6) | 133 (32) |
A.Jones | GB | 0.06 (9) | 42% (14) | 0.87 (7) | 4.59 (23) | 236 (15) |
D.Cook | MIN | 0.06 (10) | 41% (18) | 0.77 (15) | 4.54 (25) | 250 (8) |
R.Mostert | SF | 0.05 (11) | 38% (30) | 0.91 (4) | 5.64 (5) | 137 (30) |
E.Elliott | DAL | 0.05 (12) | 40% (23) | 0.69 (20) | 4.51 (26) | 301 (2) |
R.Burkhead | NE | 0.04 (13) | 42% (12) | 0.74 (17) | 4.65 (19) | 65 (56) |
J.Howard | PHI | 0.03 (14) | 43% (8) | 0.74 (16) | 4.41 (30) | 119 (37) |
T.Pollard | DAL | 0.03 (15) | 45% (5) | 0.66 (23) | 5.25 (8) | 87 (48) |
D.Henry | TEN | 0.03 (16) | 40% (22) | 0.83 (10) | 5.08 (10) | 303 (1) |
M.Mack | IND | 0.03 (17) | 41% (16) | 0.63 (30) | 4.41 (31) | 248 (9) |
C.McCaffrey | CAR | 0.01 (18) | 38% (33) | 0.80 (13) | 4.84 (16) | 287 (4) |
J.Jacobs | OAK | 0.01 (19) | 36% (40) | 0.65 (25) | 4.75 (17) | 241 (14) |
B.Scott | PHI | 0.01 (20) | 39% (27) | 0.91 (5) | 4.02 (44) | 59 (62) |
D.Singletary | BUF | 0.01 (21) | 40% (21) | 0.59 (38) | 5.09 (9) | 149 (28) |
J.Williams | GB | 0.00 (22) | 41% (20) | 0.49 (57) | 4.33 (36) | 106 (42) |
N.Hines | IND | -0.01 (23) | 46% (3) | 0.61 (35) | 3.83 (51) | 52 (69) |
L.Murray | NO | -0.01 (24) | 36% (43) | 0.64 (26) | 4.36 (33) | 146 (29) |
C.Hyde | HOU | -0.01 (25) | 39% (28) | 0.58 (39) | 4.37 (32) | 245 (11) |
P.Lindsay | DEN | -0.03 (26) | 36% (44) | 0.64 (29) | 4.49 (27) | 225 (16) |
N.Chubb | CLE | -0.04 (27) | 38% (29) | 0.68 (21) | 5.01 (14) | 298 (3) |
C.Carson | SEA | -0.04 (28) | 41% (17) | 0.62 (34) | 4.42 (29) | 278 (5) |
B.Hill | ATL | -0.04 (29) | 36% (42) | 0.57 (41) | 4.14 (41) | 78 (51) |
L.McCoy | KC | -0.04 (30) | 41% (19) | 0.70 (19) | 4.60 (22) | 101 (44) |
S.Michel | NE | -0.05 (31) | 38% (32) | 0.54 (46) | 3.69 (56) | 247 (10) |
J.Mixon | CIN | -0.05 (32) | 37% (36) | 0.52 (51) | 4.09 (42) | 278 (5) |
L.Fournette | JAX | -0.06 (33) | 33% (54) | 0.50 (54) | 4.33 (35) | 266 (7) |
M.Sanders | PHI | -0.06 (34) | 34% (48) | 0.56 (43) | 4.59 (24) | 178 (22) |
Dam.Williams | KC | -0.07 (35) | 35% (46) | 0.77 (14) | 4.49 (28) | 111 (41) |
S.Barkley | NYG | -0.07 (36) | 36% (41) | 0.63 (32) | 4.62 (20) | 217 (18) |
J.Hill | BAL | -0.08 (37) | 29% (64) | 0.59 (37) | 3.88 (47) | 58 (63) |
M.Gordon | LAC | -0.08 (38) | 38% (31) | 0.67 (22) | 3.78 (54) | 162 (26) |
A.Ekeler | LAC | -0.08 (39) | 36% (38) | 0.56 (44) | 4.22 (39) | 132 (33) |
A.Kamara | NO | -0.09 (40) | 42% (15) | 0.64 (27) | 4.66 (18) | 171 (24) |
A.Peterson | WAS | -0.09 (41) | 34% (51) | 0.57 (42) | 4.26 (37) | 211 (19) |
T.Gurley | LAR | -0.09 (42) | 40% (24) | 0.70 (18) | 3.83 (50) | 224 (17) |
D.Johnson | HOU | -0.10 (43) | 37% (35) | 0.64 (28) | 4.94 (15) | 83 (49) |
M.Brown | LAR | -0.10 (44) | 35% (45) | 0.81 (11) | 3.66 (59) | 68 (53) |
D.Johnson | ARI | -0.10 (45) | 33% (55) | 0.49 (55) | 3.67 (58) | 94 (46) |
B.Scarbrough | DET | -0.10 (46) | 45% (4) | 0.49 (56) | 4.24 (38) | 89 (47) |
M.Walton | MIA | -0.10 (47) | 40% (26) | 0.38 (66) | 3.79 (52) | 53 (66) |
R.Freeman | DEN | -0.10 (48) | 31% (60) | 0.51 (53) | 3.76 (55) | 131 (34) |
T.Johnson | DET | -0.11 (49) | 33% (52) | 0.43 (60) | 4.33 (34) | 63 (59) |
D.Washington | OAK | -0.11 (50) | 34% (50) | 0.53 (49) | 3.57 (62) | 106 (42) |
A.Mattison | MIN | -0.12 (51) | 30% (62) | 0.52 (50) | 4.62 (21) | 100 (45) |
R.Jones | TB | -0.12 (52) | 31% (58) | 0.63 (31) | 4.21 (40) | 172 (23) |
M.Breida | SF | -0.12 (53) | 34% (49) | 0.56 (45) | 5.07 (11) | 123 (35) |
T.Coleman | SF | -0.12 (54) | 28% (67) | 0.66 (24) | 3.97 (45) | 137 (30) |
K.Johnson | DET | -0.12 (55) | 36% (39) | 0.57 (40) | 3.57 (61) | 113 (40) |
B.Powell | NYJ | -0.13 (56) | 31% (59) | 0.39 (65) | 3.86 (49) | 58 (63) |
J.Conner | PIT | -0.14 (57) | 37% (34) | 0.61 (36) | 4.03 (43) | 115 (38) |
T.Cohen | CHI | -0.15 (58) | 34% (47) | 0.33 (69) | 3.33 (64) | 64 (58) |
F.Gore | BUF | -0.15 (59) | 29% (65) | 0.44 (59) | 3.64 (60) | 165 (25) |
D.Montgomery | CHI | -0.16 (60) | 32% (57) | 0.52 (52) | 3.67 (57) | 242 (13) |
P.Barber | TB | -0.16 (61) | 30% (63) | 0.54 (47) | 3.05 (67) | 154 (27) |
B.Snell Jr. | PIT | -0.18 (62) | 30% (61) | 0.53 (48) | 3.78 (53) | 79 (50) |
J.Samuels | PIT | -0.18 (63) | 33% (52) | 0.36 (68) | 2.65 (68) | 66 (55) |
L.Bell | NYJ | -0.19 (64) | 33% (56) | 0.40 (63) | 3.22 (65) | 245 (11) |
J.White | NE | -0.19 (65) | 40% (25) | 0.48 (58) | 3.88 (46) | 68 (53) |
D.Freeman | ATL | -0.19 (66) | 28% (66) | 0.42 (62) | 3.57 (63) | 184 (21) |
D.Lewis | TEN | -0.24 (67) | 37% (37) | 0.39 (64) | 3.87 (48) | 54 (65) |
K.Ballage | MIA | -0.25 (68) | 27% (68) | 0.43 (61) | 1.79 (70) | 73 (52) |
P.Laird | MIA | -0.29 (69) | 23% (69) | 0.37 (67) | 2.65 (69) | 60 (60) |
G.Bernard | CIN | -0.33 (70) | 19% (70) | 0.32 (70) | 3.21 (66) | 53 (66) |
2019 NFL Short-Yardage Rushing Efficiency
There were 43 players who had at least 10 non-QB scramble carries with two or fewer yards to go for a first down or touchdown.
| Player | Team | EPA/Carry | Success Rate | PPR/Carry | Yards/Carry | Carries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen | BUF | 0.91 (1) | 83% (2) | 1.22 (22) | 2.17 (29) | 12 (30) |
| K.Drake | ARI | 0.75 (2) | 85% (1) | 2.35 (2) | 5.08 (4) | 13 (27) |
| D.Cook | MIN | 0.69 (3) | 71% (7) | 1.40 (11) | 3.41 (16) | 17 (19) |
| A.Ingold | OAK | 0.50 (4) | 70% (8) | 0.17 (42) | 1.70 (36) | 10 (36) |
| E.Elliott | DAL | 0.48 (5) | 76% (5) | 1.78 (6) | 3.48 (14) | 21 (12) |
| D.Henry | TEN | 0.46 (6) | 81% (3) | 2.40 (1) | 3.95 (9) | 21 (12) |
| C.Carson | SEA | 0.31 (7) | 63% (15) | 1.32 (16) | 3.74 (11) | 38 (1) |
| C.Wentz | PHI | 0.31 (8) | 76% (4) | 0.50 (35) | 1.47 (40) | 17 (19) |
| M.Ingram | BAL | 0.28 (9) | 61% (16) | 1.65 (9) | 3.43 (15) | 23 (7) |
| L.Bell | NYJ | 0.26 (10) | 69% (11) | 0.98 (25) | 2.25 (27) | 16 (22) |
| J.Jacobs | OAK | 0.21 (11) | 43% (31) | 0.80 (31) | 5.39 (3) | 23 (7) |
| L.Jackson | BAL | 0.17 (12) | 64% (14) | 1.44 (10) | 5.86 (1) | 14 (25) |
| T.Gurley | LAR | 0.16 (13) | 68% (12) | 1.32 (17) | 3.56 (13) | 25 (5) |
| J.Mixon | CIN | 0.16 (14) | 67% (13) | 0.63 (34) | 4.04 (7) | 27 (2) |
| L.Fournette | JAX | 0.14 (15) | 56% (20) | 0.90 (26) | 2.33 (26) | 27 (2) |
| G.Edwards | BAL | 0.08 (16) | 50% (24) | 0.33 (40) | 3.25 (18) | 16 (22) |
| A.Ekeler | LAC | 0.07 (17) | 75% (6) | 1.33 (15) | 3.33 (17) | 12 (30) |
| C.Hyde | HOU | 0.05 (18) | 55% (23) | 0.80 (30) | 2.59 (25) | 22 (9) |
| L.McCoy | KC | 0.03 (19) | 40% (34) | 1.40 (11) | 2.00 (30) | 10 (36) |
| P.Lindsay | DEN | 0.00 (20) | 38% (39) | 1.29 (19) | 1.63 (37) | 16 (22) |
| D.Johnson | ARI | -0.07 (21) | 60% (17) | 1.39 (13) | 1.90 (32) | 10 (36) |
| P.Barber | TB | -0.08 (22) | 50% (24) | 1.00 (24) | 1.43 (41) | 14 (25) |
| A.Jones | GB | -0.12 (23) | 50% (24) | 1.70 (7) | 1.95 (31) | 20 (14) |
| J.White | NE | -0.12 (24) | 70% (8) | 0.90 (26) | 3.00 (19) | 10 (36) |
| A.Peterson | WAS | -0.12 (25) | 46% (29) | 1.22 (21) | 3.00 (19) | 13 (27) |
| M.Sanders | PHI | -0.12 (26) | 58% (18) | 1.29 (18) | 2.92 (22) | 12 (30) |
| D.Montgomery | CHI | -0.13 (27) | 36% (40) | 1.27 (20) | 1.82 (34) | 22 (9) |
| M.Gordon | LAC | -0.15 (28) | 56% (20) | 1.86 (5) | 1.89 (33) | 18 (17) |
| J.Williams | GB | -0.17 (29) | 70% (8) | 0.89 (28) | 2.90 (23) | 10 (36) |
| S.Michel | NE | -0.18 (30) | 56% (20) | 1.09 (23) | 0.89 (43) | 18 (17) |
| C.McCaffrey | CAR | -0.20 (31) | 41% (33) | 1.66 (8) | 2.95 (21) | 22 (9) |
| L.Murray | NO | -0.25 (32) | 41% (32) | 0.40 (38) | 4.00 (8) | 17 (19) |
| A.Kamara | NO | -0.25 (33) | 58% (18) | 1.89 (4) | 3.92 (10) | 12 (30) |
| S.Barkley | NYG | -0.26 (34) | 47% (28) | 0.86 (29) | 5.42 (2) | 19 (16) |
| D.Williams | KC | -0.27 (35) | 40% (34) | 1.36 (14) | 1.60 (38) | 10 (36) |
| D.Freeman | ATL | -0.30 (36) | 38% (38) | 0.49 (36) | 4.92 (5) | 13 (27) |
| N.Chubb | CLE | -0.33 (37) | 45% (30) | 0.41 (37) | 4.05 (6) | 20 (14) |
| D.Washington | OAK | -0.43 (38) | 40% (34) | 0.37 (39) | 3.70 (12) | 10 (36) |
| F.Gore | BUF | -0.44 (39) | 19% (43) | 0.73 (32) | 2.69 (24) | 26 (4) |
| M.Mack | IND | -0.46 (40) | 32% (42) | 0.16 (43) | 1.60 (38) | 25 (5) |
| T.Coleman | SF | -0.58 (41) | 36% (40) | 0.73 (33) | 1.82 (34) | 11 (35) |
| R.Jones | TB | -0.62 (42) | 40% (34) | 0.22 (41) | 2.20 (28) | 10 (36) |
| K.Johnson | DET | -0.64 (43) | 50% (24) | 2.14 (3) | 1.42 (42) | 12 (30) |
Fantasy Football Content
2. Free Agency Winners and Losers
3. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (WR)
4. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (TE)
5. 2019 Deep Target Efficiency Rankings
6. 2019 Expected Receiving TD Rankings
NFL Draft Content
7. 2020 Adjusted SPARQ Scores (Offense)