From a fantasy lens, dozens and dozens of players being sidelined is already greatly impacting the depth of your league and roster. Starting stars is as justifiable as ever, but I am still here to take a flamethrower to your optimism on a weekly basis, highlighting a handful of upcoming fantasy busts for the forthcoming slate of games. Let me be clear - I like fun, I prefer to focus on positives and, most of all, do not hate any of these players. I simply believe they will perform below their normal output.
Saints QB Drew Brees at Bucs (-5.5)
Total: o/u 51.5 | 53% Started
After beginning the season by scoring less than 17 fantasy points in three of his four opening games, Drew Brees is on a bit of a hot streak with three straight 20-plus point outputs while facing the Chargers, Panthers and Bears. Next up, the Bucs, who Brees and Company faced in Week 1, with the quarterback producing two touchdown passes tagged by a measly yardage total of 160 yards on 30 attempts.
That opening weekend performance was easily the worst of the Bucs’ season. It makes sense - new quarterback attempting to mesh with new receivers in a shortened offseason. Rob Gronkowski had not emerged as an important pass catching piece. Top corners Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis did not look like one of the best tandems in the league (that has since changed), and up front the Bucs’ pass rush only registered two quarterback hits. The 34 points allowed to the Saints stands is the most scored by a Bucs’ opponent this season. The average in the other seven games? 18.7 points.[[ad:athena]]
“But what if Michael Thomas returns?” First, receivers coming off multi-week injuries are difficult to believe in, even if they are future hall of farmers. Second, the Bucs sold out to stop Thomas in Week 1, who played 81 percent of the offensive snaps and was held to just 5 targets, 3 catches and 17 yards. Brees’ Week 9 potential hinges on success inside of the red zone, where he threw two touchdowns in Week 1. Of his 13 passing touchdowns this season, nine were thrown inside the 20-yard line. Six inside of the 10-yard line. Despite being a top overall unit in many categories, the Bucs’ defense is just middle of the pack (16th) in red zone defense (TD%). I have a feeling they overachieve at home in that area this weekend.
Prediction: 26 of 38 for 245 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT
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Cowboys WRs vs Steelers (-13.5)
Total: o/u 41.5 | Amari Cooper 75% Started
The Cowboys saw enough of Ben DiNucci against the Eagles to quickly move over to Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert. Meanwhile, I’ve seen enough of this Cowboys’ offense without Dak Prescott to move on from trusting them in my fantasy lineups. That is a difficult stance to take, with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb all posting top 15 scores at points this season - but even a top 36 outcome for each pass catcher should not be assumed heading into the weekend due to a perfect storm of disaster surrounding their team.
In any other season, I would show more faith in this offense regardless of who is throwing the football. Why? Dallas claimed a solid to great offensive line for five seasons. Now? Due to injury, this likely can be viewed as a bottom five unit, which forces a non-NFL talent at quarterback to operate outside of structure. With the Steelers up, arguably the league’s best pass rush, it is a nightmare scenario for Mike McCarthy.
Perhaps Kellen Moore is more successful this week at implementing Week 8’s gameplan of dropping his receivers’ aDOT. Michael Gallup’s dropped from 15.6 to 6.8. CeeDee Lamb’s dropped to 9.5 to 7.2. Amari Cooper’s dropped to 8.7 to 8.2. I doubt it - and this is not the formula to bank on garbage time as 13.5 point underdogs. Do not rely on a non-NFL talent at quarterback, it is that simple.
Prediction:
Amari Cooper - 8 targets, 4 receptions for 41 yards
CeeDee Lamb - 6 targets, 3 receptions for 29 yards
Michael Gallup - 6 targets, 4 receptions for 50 yards
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Cardinals WR Christian Kirk vs Dolphins (+4.5)
Total: o/u 48 | 25% Started
Four touchdowns in two games for Christian Kirk… on 11 combined targets and seven catches. Regression will be hitting, and the likeliest moment for that might be the Dolphins’ No. 3 pass defense in DVOA. What a change in Miami, who finished the 2019 season with the 32nd ranked pass defense. The difference? A healthy Xavien Howard, the additions of Byron Jones and Noah Igbinoghene and impact plays made by Andrew Van Ginkel, Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah.
Brian Flores is buying into a philosophy of inviting teams to run while focusing on shutting down passing games. The Dolphins are 21st in the NFL allowing 125 rushing yards per contest and ranked 32nd in run defense DVOA. Since the Cardinals are home favorites and with Chase Edmonds and Kyler Murray forming an explosive tandem on the ground, the Cardinals might happily follow this blueprint. Obviously DeAndre Hopkins will receive his 10-ish targets, but I have no faith in projecting any other Cardinals pass catcher to produce a fantasy starter-level performance. The volume is unlikely to be there.
Prediction: 5 targets, 3 receptions for 51 yards
Colts WRs vs Ravens (-2.5)
Total: o/u 45.5
Our expectations have not been fulfilled by the Colts’ offense this season. Jonathan Taylor smash spots after Marlon Mack was lost for the season? Not even close. Explosive downfield plays from T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman? Very, very few. YAC machine Parris Campbell? It was fun while it lasted. Simply put, injuries and moments of regret (hello Phil) have flipped the Colts’ blueprint. Do not expect that to change against a Ravens’ defense that does matter when considering fantasy matchups. Bye weeks and injuries will force some to rank Zach Pascal, Marcus Johnson and Michael Pittman Jr. in WR4 territory. Avoid.
