Quarterback
Chalk
Quarterback ownership will be flat this week with most of the big names playing on island games. Four of the top six teams by implied team total are missing, making it an easy slate to get weird on.
Despite throwing three interceptions and one score in Week 1, Vegas doesn’t have any doubts about Stafford, so neither will DFS players.
Both chalk quarterbacks are coming off rough Week 1 performances, but DFS players have evolved to fade recent box scores and buy the important info. One of the best stats at predicting ownership is team total.
The Raiders and the Rams are tied for the highest team totals on the slate. Both teams currently sit at 28.25 points. They also each have an alpha receiver, making the stacks easy to pinpoint.
However, if playing the chalk quarterbacks, I would bet on a pass-catcher to bounce back with them. That puts Allen Robinson and Darren Waller in play as strong bets on the entire offenses of the chalk passers.
Pivots
Wilson’s team has the third-highest total of the slate, but it looks like he could fall into a second tier of quarterbacks by ownership. I want to be buying the dip on Wilson as much as possible versus a weak Houston defense.
Last week, Russ ranked third in EPA per play and seventh in completion percent over expected. The team as a whole finished third in EPA per play if you exclude turnovers league-wide. Unless the Broncos are fumbling at the goal line on a weekly basis, they should be an elite offense.
Lance is an easy click on DraftKings as he’s only $5,700. The difference in price between him and the other QB1s is drastic, making it easy to build a unique lineup. In three career starts, Lance has rushed 37 times for 174 yards. Even if his passing is ugly, the rushing production is worth chasing.
Running Back
Chalk
Barkley turned 24 touches into 194 yards, looking in peak form out of the gate. He is one of the elite, three-down backs and didn’t get the correct price-up on either site.
Giants running back Saquon Barkley currently sits atop the Week 1 rushing yards over expected leaderboard entering Sunday Night Football at +88. This was Barkley's 2nd-most RYOE in a game of his career (+112 RYOE in Week 14, 2018).#NYGvsTEN | #TogetherBlue pic.twitter.com/P4ORe2f8iV
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 11, 2022
With Austin Ekeler suddenly giving up goal-line work, Barkley is my No. 3 running back for the rest of the season.
Fournette played on 76 percent of the Bucs’ snaps in Week 1 and earned 21-of-27 running back carries. He also saw two of Tampa Bay’s three red zone carries. Fournette is the complete package as a fantasy back.
Pivots
Gibson out-carried J.D. McKissic 14-3 and out-targeted him 8-3. He also ran six more routes than McKissic. It’s possible that we’re barreling toward a massive workload for Gibson until Brian Robinson is healthy. The Commanders also play in the game with the second-highest total of the main slate.
Patterson out-carried his backups 22-4 and the bench didn’t see a single target. Patterson was targeted five times while running a route on just over half of Marcus Mariota‘s dropbacks. His offense isn’t potent, but he will see nearly every touch on it.
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Wide Receiver
Chalk
Adams led the NFL in air yards (190) and targets (17) in Week 1. Now he gets a Cardinals defense that was just picked apart by Kansas City. No price is too high for Adams this week.
Even with his offense falling apart in the first game of the year, Kupp was as dominant as ever versus the Bills. He turned 15 targets into a 13/128/1 line. Now he gets a much weaker defense in Atlanta, positioning him to go berserk in Week 2.
The Dolphins hold the crown as the premier pass rate over expected team after Week 1. Despite holding a substantial lead over the Pats for three quarters, they never took their foot off the gas.
Hill was everything Miami paid for. He earned a 24 percent target share and caught eight passes for 94 yards while adding a rush attempt for six yards. His advanced metrics were great too. He averaged over three yards per route run.
Pivots
With Kupp and Adams coming in as the most popular options in Week 1, Chase could go overlooked among the stud receivers. In Cincy’s opener, he saw 16 targets and six looks in the red zone. That was double the number of red zone targets any other receiver saw across the NFL. This makes him particularly enticing on Fanduel, where touchdowns are worth more in a relative sense.
Sutton led the Broncos with 123 air yards and tied Jerry Jeudy for a team-high in targets (seven). Per usual, Sutton was also Denver’s go-to option on end zone targets. Two of his looks came in the paint.
As Denver’s chain-mover, Sutton runs the routes we want for creating big-play upside. Both he and Jeudy are solid pairing options with Wilson, but I lean toward Sutton.
In his first game as a Buc, Tampa Bay made it a point to get Julio the ball. They handed it off to him twice. It was the first time he had seen multiple handoffs in a game since he was a rookie. They also targeted him five times. He averaged more than three yards per route run, an elite mark.
Tight End
Chalk
Andrews is the runaway favorite to be the most popular tight end of the slate. However, I can see reasons to fade him. The Ravens only have the seventh-highest implied team total of the slate and appear to be getting J.K. Dobbins back this week. As three-point favorites at home with their stud running back in the fold, this week could be Baltimore’s chance to return to their ground-heavy ways.
Pivots
Despite a relatively weak opening performance, Darren Waller‘s 79 receiving yards somehow lead all tight ends that will play on the main slate. Hunter Renfrow tied Waller for second on the Raiders with six targets, but the tight end more than doubled up Renfrow in air yards. Waller was also used as a de facto receiver in Week 1, seeing just 20 percent of his snaps inline. His target share has taken a hit with Adams in town, but he could be far more efficient as Vegas’s WR2.
Thomas only ran a route on 53 percent of Washington’s dropbacks, but it would make sense for his role to grow the further removed he gets from his torn ACL. Of the 34 tight ends who ran more than 15 routes in Week 1, Thomas ranked 11th in targets per route run and eighth in yards per route run. My preferred roster construction this week is fading the expensive tight ends entirely to jam elite receivers and running backs.
