Posted Tuesday night and updated Wednesday evening, “The Fantasy Blueprint” will get you the stats and information that actually matter for fantasy football, and it will be produced in a way that doesn’t waste our time. If you don’t know what “Fantasy Usage” is, read this. If you want my best bets, they’ll be at the top on Saturday. If you need live Vegas odds, go here. If you simply just want my weekly rankings, subscribe here for $3.99 per month and use promo code WINKS10 for 10% off. If you have other questions, reach out on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).
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Best Bets of Week 12
Visit our live odds page. My all-time record: 77-58-3 (56.8%).
1. Chargers vs. Bills OVER 52.5 - Will be too low if Chargers smartly stay pass heavy.
2. Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Bucs - No CB and C, possibly no LT for Bucs. Also, #AlwaysMahomes.
3. Raiders (-3) vs. Falcons - Atlanta banged up on offense, could be without DE Fowler, too.
4. Vikings (-3) vs. Panthers - Carolina missing a G, could be without LT and another G, too.
5. Dolphins (-6.5) vs. Jets - New York missing RT and backup RT. Also the Jets.
1. Bills (29.5 points, -5.5) vs. LAC
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Josh Allen | Per-Game Rank: 6, Team PaATT: 13, Team RuATT: 24 |
RB39 Zack Moss | Better TD bet over Singletary but still an iffy RB3. |
RB41 Devin Singletary | Under 9.0 xFPs in 5 of the last 6 games. Few GL carries. |
WR11 Stefon Diggs | 103 air yards per game as a low-end WR1. Shootout game. |
WR62 Cole Beasley | xFPs: With Brown (10.5), without (13.5). Brown is out. |
WR84 Gabriel Davis | Becomes a WR4/5 dart throw as a deep threat without Brown. |
Fantasy Rankings
Beasley is my WR29 this week. Subscribe to Rotoworld EDGE+ here to unlock the rest of my personal weekly positional rankings (posted Wednesday) for only $3.99 per month. Use promo code: WINKS10 for 10% off.
2. Raiders (29.5, -3) @ ATL
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 22, Team PaATT: 26, Team RuATT: 6 | |
RB7 Josh Jacobs | RB1 usage in wins, RB2 usage in losses. 3-point favorites. |
TE2 Darren Waller | At least 8.9 xFPs in all games. The TE2 with LV’s team total. |
WR68 Nelson Agholor | Only two games above 8.5 xFPs, but the WR in 1-WR sets. |
WR92 Henry Ruggs | Taking my L on rookie-year Ruggs. Mostly running clear outs. |
WR97 Hunter Renfrow | Under 9.0 xFPs in 6-straight games as a non-full time player. |
3. Chiefs (29.25, -3) @ TB
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 3, Team PaATT: 7, Team RuATT: 18 | |
12.5 xFPs in 4 games with Bell. RB2 vs. elite run defense. | |
RB56 Le’Veon Bell | Week 11 snaps: CEH (40), Bell (20), Williams (20). |
TE1 Travis Kelce | On pace for the all-time TE2 overall season. A top-5 asset. |
WR1 Tyreek Hill | xFPs: With Sammy (13.3), without (18.1). Recent air yards surge. |
Full participant after Week 11 setback. Upside WR3 if healthy. | |
WR61 Demarcus Robinson | 46-of-53 routes with Sammy out Week 11. |
WR78 Mecole Hardman | Limited to 14-of-53 Week 11 routes, but Pringle is out. |
Updated Friday: Bucs speedy CB Jamel Dean is out, helping out both Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. This game has major shootout potential.
4. Browns (27.75, -6.5) @ JAX
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 30, Team PaATT: 31, Team RuATT: 3 | |
RB13 Kareem Hunt | 16.0 xFPs in 5 games with Chubb. RB1/2 with huge team total. |
RB35 Nick Chubb | Early-downs-only big-play threat. Needs TDs. 6.5-point faves. |
TE27 Austin Hooper | 8.4 xFPs in 8 healthy games. 16-of-28 routes. TE1/2 border. |
WR57 Jarvis Landry | Not separating in run-heaviest OFF. JAX missing top-2 CBs. |
WR93 Rashard Higgins | Week 11 routes: Hodge (23), Higgins (19). Each need a big play. |
Updated Friday: The Jaguars are missing CBs C.J. Henderson, D.J. Hayden, and Sidney Jones in addition to DE Josh Allen and other front-seven members. It’s a stone-cold disaster for the tanking Jaguars right now.
5. Seahawks (27.5, -5) @ PHI
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 4, Team PaATT: 14, Team RuATT: 25 | |
NA Chris Carson (Q) | Expected back after extended absence. Was a weekly RB1/2. |
NA Carlos Hyde | Had 13.6 expected PPR points in Week 11 spot start. |
TE26 Jacob Hollister | More recent usage than Will Dissly. Greg Olsen on IR. TE2/3. |
WR16 DK Metcalf | SEA neutral pass rate has slipped recently. Boom-bust WR1. |
WR30 Tyler Lockett | 22% target share in the last 4. Efficient on WR3 usage. WR1/2. |
WR79 David Moore | Week 11 routes: Moore (21 of 41), Freddie Swain (8). |
Updated Saturday: Chris Carson has been limited in each of his practices, which leaves his Week 12 status more up in the air than what coach Pete Carroll has led on. A full practice will be the key to his availability, and a full Carson immediately goes back to the low-end RB1 conversation. Carlos Hyde will be on the RB1/2 border if Carson misses again. He should be rostered.
6. Colts (27.0, -3.5) vs. TEN
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 25, Team PaATT: 17, Team RuATT: 11 | |
RB22 Jonathan Taylor (O) | 17.9 xFPs Week 11 were the most since Week 2. Upside RB2/3. |
RB26 Nyheim Hines | Passing down back with theoretical hot hand potential. RB3. |
RB40 Jordan Wilkins | Week 11 snaps: JT (46), NH (29), Wilkins (9). Insurance only. |
TE17 Trey Burton | Week 11 routes: MAC (17), Burton (15), Doyle (11). |
TE30 Mo Alie-Cox | An absolute giant in the red zone but TD-needy TE2/3 in TEBC. |
TE34 Jack Doyle | Under 8.5 xFPs in all games. Off radar as the No. 3 tight end. |
WR50 Michael Pittman | Pops on film & trending up but still has WR4 usage. Flex option. |
WR60 T.Y. Hilton | Ghost of T.Y. seeing WR5/6 usage. Career-low YPT. |
WR64 Zach Pascal (Q) | Low aDOT slot option on WR6 usage. Off the 12-team radar. |
Updated Saturday: Jonathan Taylor (COVID-19) is out, pushing Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins up a tier. Between the two, Hines is the only one with a locked-in role (passing downs). Either of them can earn the early-down hot hand, however, giving them both plenty of upside attached to this 27.0-point team total. Hines deserves RB2 love in PPR formats, while Wilkins can jump into flex spots in hopes he handles work on early-downs and near the goal-line. The coaching staff has been comfortable with each of them at times this season.
7. Packers (26.75, -8.5) vs. CHI
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 7, Team PaATT: 19, Team RuATT: 15 | |
RB14 Aaron Jones | xFPs: With Adams (24.0), without (17.1). Still a strong RB1. |
RB23 Jamaal Williams | Elite insurance with desperation flex value in PPR formats. |
TE22 Robert Tonyan | 5.8 xFPs per game with Adams. TD-needy TE2. |
WR4 Davante Adams | 22.7 xFPs on season is most among all WRs or RBs. |
NA Allen Lazard | Limited to 26-of-42 routes in Week 11 return. Upside WR5. |
WR73 Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Q) | Big play threat on a 17.4 aDOT. Lazard back lowers floor. |
Updated Friday: Marquez Valdes-Scantling suffered an Achilles injury in practice this week and is suddenly questionable for Week 12. ... Bears top run-stuffing DT Akiem Hicks is at best questionable, solidifying Aaron Jones upside RB1 status.
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8. Falcons (26.5, +3) vs. LV
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 16, Team PaATT: 5, Team RuATT: 13 | |
NA Brian Hill | More snaps than Gurley (26 to 23) in Week 11. Low-end RB2. |
TE11 Hayden Hurst (Q) | TE1/2 usage on top-5 routes. Decent floor if healthy. |
WR14 Julio Jones (Q) | Limited in both practices with another soft-tissue injury. |
Had 13.7 expected PPR points in Week 11 return. Julio out? | |
WR51 Russell Gage | 40-of-48 routes in Week 11 with Julio injured. |
WR99 Christian Blake | Week 11 routes as No. 3: Blake (27), Olamide Zaccheaus (7). |
Updated Friday: Todd Gurley is out, pushing Brian Hill into the low-end RB2 range. He’s not expected to have a bellcow role but should see most high-value touches in what could be an iffy offense if Julio Jones’ questionable status is a mirage. Jones seems truly questionable after another soft-tissue injury. Russell Gage would be a risky but upside WR4 play if Jones is ruled out. Hayden Hurst is also questionable after going DNP-DNP-limited in practice. He’s been a low-end TE1 with and without Jones/Ridley.
9. Rams (26.5, -7.5) vs. SF
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 21, Team PaATT: 11, Team RuATT: 9 | |
RB44 Darrell Henderson | 6.5 & 8.5 xFPs in 2 games since bye with Akers mixing in. |
RB51 Cam Akers | Earning trust but only 12 snaps Week 11 as No. 3 RB. |
RB52 Malcolm Brown | McVay’s preferred pass protector as 3rd down back. |
TE16 Gerald Everett | Week 11 routes: Everett (22), Higbee (26). Higbee questionable. |
TE21 Tyler Higbee (Q) | McVay called Higbee (elbow) a game-time decision. DNP twice. |
WR3 Cooper Kupp | 13.7 targets per game in the last 4 weeks (1st). |
WR8 Robert Woods | Rams now 4th in neutral pass rate in last 4 weeks. Upside WR2. |
WR21 Josh Reynolds | 11.0+ xFPs in 5 straight. Deep shots harder with backup LT tho. |
Updated Friday: Gerald Everett will be a rock-solid TE2 streamer if Tyler Higbee, who didn’t practice all week, is unable to play. With the Rams missing their left tackle, the Rams went for an even more quick-hitting passing offense. That change away from deep passes and the run game certainly helps Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.
10. Vikings (26.25, -4) vs. CAR
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 24, Team PaATT: 32, Team RuATT: 10 | |
RB1 Dalvin Cook | 20.1 xFPs per game on season is 3rd. Baller vs. No. 32 run DEF. |
TE31 Kyle Rudolph | Week 11 routes: Irv Smith (21 of 35), Rudolph (16). Irv likely out. |
Don’t bet against the Griddy. WR1/2 if Thielen misses. |
Updated Friday: The Vikings will be without Adam Thielen and listed Irv Smith as doubtful. There’s a major concentration of touches with their absences. Dalvin Cook can be projected for 25-35 touches and Justin Jefferson‘s low-volume usage shouldn’t be a concern in Week 12, making him a strong WR2 play at the very worst. It’s hard to project Chad Beebe, OlaBisi Johnson, and other pass-game options for much work. ... The Panthers will be without CB Dante Jackson as well.
11. Cardinals (26.25, -2.5) @ NE
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 1, Team PaATT: 18, Team RuATT: 7 | |
RB9 Kenyan Drake | Needs TDs as an early-down grinder. Slow-paced opponent. |
RB20 Chase Edmonds | 10.5 xFPs per game with a healthy Drake. PPR RB3 + insurance. |
WR38 DeAndre Hopkins | Efficient on 15.0 xFPs per game this season. Is Kyler hurt? |
WR46 Larry Fitzgerald (O) | On COVID-19 list. More opportunities for Kirk & Andy Isabella. |
WR49 Christian Kirk | 25% of targets are 20+ air yards. Volatile if Kyler’s arm is iffy. |
12. Bucs (26.25, +3) vs. KC
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 11, Team PaATT: 4, Team RuATT: 27 | |
RB27 Leonard Fournette | I might have better hands. Was the favorite in negative scripts. |
RB30 Ronald Jones | I certainly have better hands. KC historically bad vs. the run. |
TE15 Rob Gronkowski | 9.0 xFPs in 3 games with AB back. TD-needy TE1/2. |
WR7 Mike Evans | 20% target share in the last 4. TB passing often. Upside WR2. |
WR25 Antonio Brown | 100 air yards P/G on WR3 usage his 3 games. Upside WR3. |
WR41 Chris Godwin | Targets & aDOT (8.0) are down with Brady, but at least a WR3. |
Updated Friday: Bucs LT Donavan Smith barely practiced this week and is questionable, plus center A.Q. Shipley is out with a career-ending neck injury and CB Jamel Dean will miss. The Bucs could be playing from behind.
13. Dolphins (25.75, -7) @ NYJ
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 39, Team PaATT: 28, Team RuATT: 17 | |
RB5 Salvon Ahmed (O) | 18.6 & 18.1 xFPs in 2 games w/o Gaskin. DNP twice this week. |
TE24 Mike Gesicki | 7.4 xFPs in 3 games since Isaiah Ford trade. Bad passing OFF. |
WR39 DeVante Parker | xFPs: With Preston Williams (10.3), w/o (15.8). NYJ missing CBs. |
WR71 Jakeem Grant | xFPs: With Preston Williams (4.8), w/o (10.5). Low-aDOT WR6. |
Updated Friday: There’s still no word about who will start at quarterback, and it’s unknown if Myles Gaskin (IR) will be activated. He’s been practicing but hasn’t been fully cleared to play. If he’s activated, Gaskin is an immediate RB2 with Salvon Ahmed ruled out after seeing elite usage earlier in the year. If Gaskin misses, Matt Breida is the next man up at running back, but the coaching staff hasn’t used him much all season.
Updated Saturday: Tua Tagovailoa (thumb) has been downgraded to doubtful, meaning Ryan Fitzpatrick will start. I think he’s an upgrade over Tua for fantasy purposes and all-around game environment. I now like the over on 44.5 points and am more comfortable with DeVante Parker as an upside WR3 and even the Jets receivers as flex plays. Fitzpatrick simply is more aggressive, which breeds fantasy points.
14. Saints (24.75, -5.5) @ DEN
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: NA, Team PaATT: 23, Team RuATT: 8 | |
RB4 Alvin Kamara | Taysom + foot = season-low 11.9 xFPs Wk 11. Outside my top-3. |
RB45 Latavius Murray | Played more Week 11 snaps than Kamara (foot). Insurance. |
TE23 Jared Cook | Season-low 3.0 xFPs in game with Taysom. Iffy TE2 right now. |
WR12 Michael Thomas | Rebounded in cupcake matchup on 52% target share. WR1/2. |
WR80 Emmanuel Sanders | 6.7 xFPs per game in 3 games since Thomas returned. |
Updated Friday: Saints LG Andrus Peat (concussion) is out. This is a much tougher test for Taysom Hill due to Peat’s injury, defensive opponent, and the altitude. The Broncos Defense is very well coached.
Updated Saturday: In addition to LG Andrus Peat (concussion) being out, the Saints will be without LT Terron Armstead. Both are quality offensive linemen and slightly bring down the expectations of the entire offense.
15. Chargers (24.0, +5.5) @ BUF
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 5, Team PaATT: 7, Team RuATT: 4 | |
RB2 Kalen Ballage (Q) | Awful efficiency but 16.6, 23.9, & 26.7 xFPs in his 3 starts. RB2. |
RB47 Joshua Kelley | Week 11 snaps: Ballage (55), Pope (16), Kelley (11). |
TE7 Hunter Henry | At least 9.5 xFPs in 8-of-10 games. TE1 in potential shootout. |
WR5 Keenan Allen | 19.6 xFPs per game on season (2nd). My WR2 overall in PPR. |
WR33 Mike Williams | 108 air yards per game in the last 4 weeks (8th). Volatile WR3. |
WR90 Jalen Guyton | Not being targeted despite 54-of-59 routes in Week 11. |
Updated Friday: The Chargers should keep their league-high neutral pass rate from last week against the Bills, but the coaching staff has been fluky. Kalen Ballage, who is questionable, is an RB2 after dominating touches in recent weeks. If Ballage is out, Troymaine Pope and Joshua Kelley would be rotating as dicey RB3 plays. Hopefully the Chargers just pepper Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry with targets.
16. Patriots (23.75, +2.5) vs. ARI
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 14, Team PaATT: 29, Team RuATT: 2 | |
RB36 Damien Harris | All Wk 11 touches on early downs. Needs TDs as low-end RB2. |
RB42 James White | 14.9 xFPs Week 11 with Rex Burkhead hurt. Trending up. RB2/3. |
NA Sony Michel | Projects as the No. 3 back in an early-down-only role. Off radar. |
WR22 Jakobi Meyers | 4.9 xFPs in Week 11 despite 42-of-43 routes. Rebound WR3/flex. |
WR70 Damiere Byrd | Had career-high 132 yards on iffy usage in Week 11. Fade. |
17. Giants (23.75, -4.5) @ CIN
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 27, Team PaATT: 24, Team RuATT: 23 | |
RB19 Wayne Gallman | 13.8 xFPs in 4 starts without Devonta Freeman. CIN bad vs RBs. |
TE3 Evan Engram | Inefficient on TE1 usage. Boom-bust TE1. CIN LBs are slow. |
WR31 Sterling Shepard | 24% target share in last 4 weeks. WR3/flex play vs. bad CBs. |
WR66 Darius Slayton | 17% target share in last 4 weeks. Needs TDs and deep targets. |
WR82 Golden Tate | Under 9.0 xFPs in 6-straight games. Off the fantasy radar. |
18. Titans (23.5, +3.5) @ IND
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 9, Team PaATT: 26, Team RuATT: 5 | |
RB18 Derrick Henry | TEN missing LT, RT, maybe LG. IND top-5 vs. RBs. Tough spot. |
TE12 Jonnu Smith | TE1/2 usage tied to red zone targets (1.3 P/G). |
WR40 A.J. Brown | Stiff arms my regression models into the Earth’s crust. WR2. |
WR53 Corey Davis | Efficient flex option on WR4/5 usage. IND 7th vs. WRs. |
Updated Friday: The Titans have sent LT Taylor Lewan and backup LT Ty Sambrailo to injured reserve. RG Rodger Saffold and C Ben Jones are both questionable and didn’t get in a single full practice this week combined. The offensive line is a legit problem right now. At least the Colts are missing DT DeForest Buckner, LB Bobby Okereke, and others on defense.
19. Eagles (22.5, +5) vs. SEA
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 19, Team PaATT: 9, Team RuATT: 26 | |
RB16 Miles Sanders | Usage is down. Not sure PHI believes he is a 3-down back. RB2. |
RB48 Boston Scott | 5.0 xFPs with Miles. Jordan Howard signed. A mini committee. |
TE9 Dallas Goedert | 9.3 & 10.7 xFPs in 2 games since bye. Upside TE1 w/o Ertz. |
WR52 Jalen Reagor | Big play waiting to happen on WR5 usage. SEA last vs. WRs. |
WR59 Travis Fulgham | Under 12.0 xFPs in all 3 games with Reagor. Last chance here... |
WR81 Greg Ward | 33-of-43 routes as slot man in 3-WR sets. |
20. Panthers (22.25, +4) @ MIN
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 17, Team PaATT: 21, Team RuATT: 21 | |
RB24 Mike Davis | 18.2 xFPs in 8 games without CMC who is ‘still up in the air’. |
WR19 Curtis Samuel | 14.0 xFPs in 5 games since injury. MIN 29th vs. WRs. WR3/4. |
WR23 Robby Anderson | Trading big weeks with Moore on WR2 usage. Good matchup. |
WR48 D.J. Moore | Very efficient on WR4 volume. 34-of-37 routes. Upside WR3/4. |
Updated Friday: Panthers LT Russell Okung and G John Miller are both questionable and barely practiced this week, plus versatile G/T Dennis Daley has been ruled out. For now, Teddy Bridgewater is playing and Christian McCaffrey is on the wrong side of questionable.
21. Jaguars (20.75, +6.5) vs. CLE
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 13, Team PaATT: 10, Team RuATT: 31 | |
RB10 James Robinson | Lost some routes to Dare but still a weekly low-end RB1. |
TE18 Tyler Eifert | Awful on TE2/3 usage. Why are they starting Glennon? |
NA Laviska Shenault (Q) | Cleared to play. No D.J. Chark and Chris Conley either. |
NA Keelan Cole | Near full-time slot man in bad offense. Usage bump coming. |
Updated Friday: Both D.J. Chark and Chris Conley are out, pushing Laviska Shenault (questionable) and Keelan Cole into every-down roles as leading targets. Cole is the safer play as the slot option, but Shenault offers more athleticism and big-play upside. They are WR4 options despite Mike Glennon. Helping their chances of success is the Browns injury report. CB Denzel Mims, DE Myles Garrett, LB Sione Takitaki, and S Sheldrick Redwin are all out.
22. Bengals (19.25, +4.5) vs. NYG
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: NA, Team PaATT: 2, Team RuATT: 20 | |
RB8 Giovani Bernard (Q) | Inefficient on RB1/2 usage. Dealing with a concussion. |
RB43 Samaje Perine | Potentially getting a spot start. Trayveon Williams also around. |
WR10 Tee Higgins | WR1/2 usage unlikely to stick w/o Burrow. Faces CB Bradberry. |
WR18 Tyler Boyd | WR2 usage unlikely to stick w/o Burrow. Easiest CB matchup. |
WR47 A.J. Green | Least efficient WR. Now with a backup QB. |
Updated Friday: Brandon Allen is horrendously bad, but I always favor the slot receiver over the outside target with backups. Tyler Boyd is the slightly better play than Tee Higgins, who faces strong CB James Bradberry. Of course, both are downgraded without Joe Burrow. ... For now, we don’t know if Giovani Bernard will play. If he does, Bernard is a very risky RB2/3 play after losing some reps to Samaje Perine in recent weeks. I’m looking for any reason to sit Bernard with the Bengals’ sub-20 team total.
23. Broncos (19.25, +5.5) vs. NO
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 32, Team PaATT: 11, Team RuATT: 18 | |
RB34 Melvin Gordon | Goal-line + 3rd downs in RBBC. Upside RB2/3. |
RB54 Phillip Lindsay | 15-of-16 touches on early downs last week. NO DEF is legit. |
TE10 Noah Fant | Willing to bet on athleticism with TE1/2 usage. |
WR9 Jerry Jeudy (Q) | Leading NFL in air yards over last 4 games. Tough matchup tho. |
WR24 Tim Patrick | Every-down deep threat in shaky offense. Slow-paced game. |
WR36 KJ Hamler | Slot YAC potential. 22-of-33 routes Week 11. |
Updated Saturday: Jerry Jeudy (ankle) seems truly questionable based on national reports. He needs to prove that he’s comfortable cutting on his coaching staff on gameday, a sign that he’ll be at less than 100% even if he’s active. Jeudy’s usage recently has been promising, but he’s not a floor play this week. Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, and Noah Fant can be projected for an extra target or two if Jeudy is ruled out.
24. 49ers (19.0, +7.5) @ LAR
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 36, Team PaATT: 20, Team RuATT: 14 | |
NA Raheem Mostert (Q) | 13.4 xFPs in 3 healthy games + elite efficiency. Upside RB2. |
RB15 Jerick McKinnon | xFPs: With Mostert (9.1), without (12.1). Dependent on injuries. |
TE28 Jordan Reed | 8.6 xFPs in 5 healthy games. TE2 option over Ross Dwelley. |
WR2 Brandon Aiyuk (Q) | xFPs: With Deebo (9.5), without (16.3). Faces CB Ramsey. |
NA Deebo Samuel | Limited in each practice. 11.4 xFPs in 3 healthy games. |
WR17 Richie James | Battles Kendrick Bourne for No. 3 job if Deebo is back. |
Updated Friday: Raheem Mostert is likely back and would be an immediate RB2 play with plenty of upside given his skillset and potential workload. Mostert dominated touches over Jerick McKinnon earlier in the season and Tevin Coleman will not play. ... Things are complicated at receiver with Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-19) listed as questionable and the coaching staff is pessimistic he’ll play. Deebo Samuel is a fine WR3/4 play coming off injury if Aiyuk is out, although CB Jalen Ramsey will be on him in that scenario. I’m hoping Richie James stays in two-receiver sets after showing more than Kendrick Bourne ever has, but that’s not a lock to happen.
25. Jets (18.75, +7) vs. MIA
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 37, Team PaATT: 25, Team RuATT: 29 | |
RB37 Frank Gore | Season-high 17.5 xFPs Week 11. Lamical Perine is out weeks. |
RB58 Ty Johnson | Potential passing down back in bad offense. |
Injury + more competition hurts. Darnold’s return helps. WR4. | |
WR55 Denzel Mims | Led Week 11 in air yards, but worse fit with Darnold. WR5. |
WR58 Breshad Perriman | 8.8 xFPs in 5 healthy games. Mims emerging. Off the radar. |
Updated Friday: Sam Darnold has peppered slot receivers, in particular Jamison Crowder, with targets throughout his entire career. He’s not the deep-ball passer that Joe Flacco is, hurting the outlooks of Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman. Between the two, Mims is the better play as an emerging rookie who led the NFL in air yards last week. I’ll be projecting Crowder for a rebound flex role with Darnold, however.
26. Bears (18.25, +8.5) @ GB
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Context |
Per-Game Rank: 29, Team PaATT: 3, Team RuATT: 31 | |
RB6 David Montgomery | Bad on RB1/2 usage. GB is 30th vs. RBs. Low-end RB2. |
TE14 Jimmy Graham | 1.4 red zone targets per game as TD-needy TE2. |
WR29 Allen Robinson | No excuse for his WR2/3 usage. Faces CB Alexander. WR2/3. |
WR13 Anthony Miller | Team-high 22% targets in the last 4 weeks. Stop. |
WR43 Darnell Mooney | Empty air yards king on 14.2 aDOT. Bears have league-low total. |
Best Bears non-ARob skill player? Off radar with Montgomery. |
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