Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just “carries” to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. “High-Value RB Touches & Game Script” will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches. [[ad:athena]]
The chart below shows how many PPR points a touch is worth depending on how far away a player is from the end zone and if it was a target or carry. Targets (1.63 PPR points on average) are worth more than carries (0.62) in fantasy football by a full PPR point on average. We already knew that, but what about inside the red zone?
Targets and carries are basically worth the same from 99 yards away all the way up to the red zone. Then their value begins to sky-rocket, pushing a lot of the value in touches to within 10 yards of the goal-line. I typically ignore red zone touches and pay more attention to inside-the-10 touches because they’re worth 1.95 PPR points on average compared to 0.67 PPR points for touches between 11-20 yards from the end zone.
High Value RB Touches
As shown earlier, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I’ve combined them to create “High Value Touches”, which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by high value touches per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. “High-Value %" is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories.
Quick Analysis: Myles Gaskin is the biggest top-10 surprise if you haven’t been paying attention. The Dolphins have been healthy scratching Jordan Howard, leaving Gaskin with the receiving role (4.5 targets per game in the last four weeks) and goal-line role (2.8 inside-the-10-yard line touches in the last four weeks). We can doubt the offensive line, his skillset, and his all-around environment to some degree, but the workload is awesome. … On the flip side, only 20% of Kenyan Drake’s opportunities are high value. He’s only averaging 0.7 targets per game over the last four weeks and only sees 2.3 touches inside-the-10-yard line. It leaves him with little floor and a ceiling only tied to touchdowns, not receiving work.
| Player | High Value | Inside 10 | Targets | Carries | Opps | High Value % |
| 1. Alvin Kamara | 11.0 | 1.7 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 21.3 | 52% |
| 2. Mike Davis | 10.5 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 15.8 | 22.8 | 46% |
| 3. Ezekiel Elliott | 10.3 | 2.3 | 8.0 | 14.5 | 22.5 | 46% |
| 4. James White | 9.5 | 1.0 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 12.0 | 79% |
| 5. Aaron Jones | 7.7 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 13.7 | 18.3 | 42% |
| 6. Derrick Henry | 7.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 22.3 | 25.7 | 29% |
| 7. David Montgomery | 7.3 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 13.3 | 18.8 | 39% |
| 8. Myles Gaskin | 7.3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 16.5 | 21.0 | 35% |
| 9. Joe Mixon | 7.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 20.8 | 25.8 | 27% |
| 10. Ronald Jones | 7.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 18.3 | 23.3 | 30% |
| 11. Chris Carson | 6.7 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 12.7 | 17.3 | 38% |
| 12. Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 6.5 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 18.0 | 23.3 | 28% |
| 13. J.D. McKissic | 6.5 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 10.5 | 62% |
| 14. Austin Ekeler | 6.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 46% |
| 15. Antonio Gibson | 5.8 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 10.5 | 15.0 | 38% |
| 16. James Robinson | 5.8 | 0.5 | 5.3 | 13.3 | 18.5 | 31% |
| 17. Darrell Henderson | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 14.3 | 16.3 | 34% |
| 18. Melvin Gordon | 5.5 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 15.5 | 20.0 | 28% |
| 19. Miles Sanders | 5.5 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 12.8 | 17.3 | 32% |
| 20. Nyheim Hines | 5.5 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 59% |
| 21. Dalvin Cook | 5.3 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 26.0 | 21% |
| 22. Rex Burkhead | 5.3 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 48% |
| 23. David Johnson | 5.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 16.3 | 19.3 | 27% |
| 24. Jerick McKinnon | 5.3 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 39% |
| 25. D’Andre Swift | 5.0 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 54% |
| 26. Todd Gurley | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 16.0 | 19.0 | 26% |
| 27. James Conner | 4.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 17.7 | 20.7 | 23% |
| 28. Josh Jacobs | 4.7 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 18.0 | 21.7 | 22% |
| 29. Chase Edmonds | 4.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 7.8 | 58% |
| 30. Kareem Hunt | 4.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 15.0 | 17.5 | 26% |
| 31. Jamaal Williams | 4.3 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 46% |
| 32. Devin Singletary | 4.3 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 13.0 | 16.5 | 26% |
| 33. Malcolm Brown | 4.3 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 43% |
| 34. Justin Jackson | 4.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 10.5 | 14.5 | 28% |
| 35. Jonathan Taylor | 3.5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 13.5 | 15.8 | 22% |
| 36. Devonta Freeman | 3.3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 12.8 | 15.0 | 22% |
| 37. J.K. Dobbins | 3.3 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 45% |
| 38. Kenyan Drake | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 17.3 | 18.3 | 18% |
| 39. Alexander Mattison | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 24% |
| 40. Brian Hill | 3.0 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 32% |
| 41. Duke Johnson | 3.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 47% |
| 42. Leonard Fournette | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 33% |
| 43. Raheem Mostert | 3.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 14.0 | 16.5 | 18% |
| 44. Tony Pollard | 2.8 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 38% |
| 45. Adrian Peterson | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 16.0 | 17.3 | 13% |
| 46. Joshua Kelley | 2.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 21% |
| 47. Jeremy McNichols | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 37% |
| 48. Jeff Wilson | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 29% |
| 49. Latavius Murray | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 18% |
| 50. Frank Gore | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 12.0 | 13.8 | 15% |
| 51. JJ Taylor | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 17% |
| 52. Phillip Lindsay | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 9% |
| 53. Sony Michel | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 18% |
| 54. Matt Breida | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 26% |
| 55. Benny Snell | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 24% |
| 56. Kerryon Johnson | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 36% |
| 57. Lamical Perine | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 21% |
| 58. Royce Freeman | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 28% |
| 59. Reggie Bonnafon | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 21% |
| 60. Gus Edwards | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 14% |
| 61. Mark Ingram | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 15% |
| 62. Anthony McFarland | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 20% |
| 63. Carlos Hyde | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 20% |
| 64. JaMycal Hasty | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 15% |
| 65. Le’Veon Bell | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 7% |
| 66. Peyton Barber | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 25% |
| 67. Jordan Wilkins | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 13% |
| 68. D’Ernest Johnson | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 7% |
| 69. Devontae Booker | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 9% |
| 70. Damien Harris | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 4% |
| 71. Dontrelle Hilliard | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 10% |
| 72. Nick Chubb | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 4% |
| 73. Cam Akers | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0% |
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Game-Script Touch Shares
Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.
Quick Analysis: It’s not quite as bad as it was in 2019, but Josh Jacobs remains a game-script sensitive player. In neutral situations, he’s seeing a touch on 44% of offensive plays. When the Raiders are leading, his touch share goes up to 50%. Insane volume. But when the Raiders are trailing, Jacobs’ touch share drops all the way down to 21%, leaving him with a lower floor than other top-12 fantasy running backs. Pay attention to the point spread if using Jacobs in DFS.
| Player | Neutral | Trailing | Leading | Game Script Bump |
| Myles Gaskin | 52% | 21% | 39% | Positive |
| Todd Gurley | 47% | 24% | 29% | |
| Adrian Peterson | 47% | 23% | 18% | |
| Josh Jacobs | 44% | 21% | 50% | Positive |
| Darrell Henderson | 43% | 28% | 21% | |
| James Robinson | 43% | 24% | 40% | Positive |
| Jonathan Taylor | 43% | 20% | 25% | |
| David Johnson | 41% | 27% | 37% | |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 40% | 27% | 34% | |
| Joe Mixon | 40% | 47% | 35% | |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 40% | 26% | 30% | |
| Ronald Jones | 40% | 36% | 34% | |
| Devin Singletary | 39% | 11% | 37% | Positive |
| Mike Davis | 38% | 34% | 41% | |
| Devonta Freeman | 36% | 14% | 49% | Positive |
| Miles Sanders | 35% | 23% | 29% | |
| David Montgomery | 34% | 24% | 36% | |
| Jerick McKinnon | 33% | 11% | 19% | |
| Aaron Jones | 33% | 23% | 39% | Positive |
| Derrick Henry | 33% | 48% | 39% | |
| James Conner | 32% | 25% | 30% | |
| Antonio Gibson | 32% | 22% | 25% | |
| Alvin Kamara | 31% | 38% | 30% | |
| Chris Carson | 31% | 40% | 31% | |
| Kenyan Drake | 30% | 22% | 37% | |
| Frank Gore | 27% | 21% | 33% | |
| Latavius Murray | 27% | 10% | 25% | |
| Kareem Hunt | 25% | 29% | 30% | |
| Mark Ingram | 24% | 15% | 13% | |
| Joshua Kelley | 19% | 11% | 28% | Positive |
| J.D. McKissic | 18% | 19% | 0% | Negative |
| Rex Burkhead | 17% | 10% | 32% | Positive |
| Lamar Jackson | 15% | 21% | 10% |
Week 6 RB Touches By Down
Another way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from first- or second-down touches (“Early Downs”). Running backs with a percentage of third-down touches are typically pass-catching specialists. In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.
Quick Analysis: We are all rooting for Antonio Gibson to fully break out, but his role remains the same. All 14 of his opportunities this week came on either first- or second-down, meaning he didn’t get a single carry or target on a third down. Washington continues using J.D. McKissic as the primary pass-catching running back. McKissic handled all four running back touches on third down and saw 5-of-6 of the “passing situation targets”, too. Gibson’s ceiling is capped until he at least splits those duties with McKissic.
Week 6 Garbage Time Eaters
Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.
Quick Analysis: Unless there’s an injury, we can ignore the touches from the following running backs: JaMycal Hasty, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Benny Snell, Matt Breida, and Kerryon Johnson. Most of their touches came in complete garbage time. The following running backs could now go from garbage time eaters to fantasy flex-able due to injuries: JaMycal Hasty, Boston Scott, Gus Edwards, and J.K. Dobbins.
| Player | Garbage Rate | Garbage Touch | Total Touches |
| JaMycal Hasty | 100% | 10 | 10 |
| Ke’Shawn Vaughn | 100% | 6 | 6 |
| Amari Cooper | 90% | 9 | 10 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 90% | 9 | 10 |
| Benny Snell | 86% | 6 | 7 |
| Austin Hooper | 83% | 5 | 6 |
| Boston Scott | 83% | 5 | 6 |
| Chase Claypool | 83% | 5 | 6 |
| Travis Fulgham | 80% | 8 | 10 |
| Gus Edwards | 79% | 11 | 14 |
| Brian Hill | 75% | 9 | 12 |
| DeVante Parker | 75% | 6 | 8 |
| Zach Ertz | 70% | 7 | 10 |
| Frank Gore | 67% | 10 | 15 |
| Irv Smith | 67% | 4 | 6 |
| Justin Jefferson | 67% | 8 | 12 |
| Kenny Golladay | 67% | 4 | 6 |
| Breshad Perriman | 63% | 5 | 8 |
| Matt Breida | 63% | 5 | 8 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 63% | 5 | 8 |
| Jamison Crowder | 62% | 8 | 13 |
| D’Andre Swift | 61% | 11 | 18 |
| Julio Jones | 60% | 6 | 10 |
| Lamical Perine | 60% | 6 | 10 |
| Kenyan Drake | 59% | 13 | 22 |
| Chase Edmonds | 57% | 4 | 7 |
| James Conner | 57% | 12 | 21 |
| Kareem Hunt | 56% | 9 | 16 |
| Myles Gaskin | 55% | 12 | 22 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 54% | 7 | 13 |
| Adrian Peterson | 50% | 8 | 16 |
| Davante Adams | 50% | 5 | 10 |
| George Kittle | 50% | 5 | 10 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 50% | 3 | 6 |
| Marquise Brown | 50% | 3 | 6 |
| Michael Gallup | 50% | 3 | 6 |
| Tony Pollard | 50% | 7 | 14 |
The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 7
Part 1: High Value RB Touches & Game Script (Monday)
Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)
Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)
Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)
My Twitter: @HaydenWinks
