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We want to know -- we need to know -- how defenses are being attacked.
Though it won’t translate perfectly from week to week, understanding which NFL defenses qualify as run funnels and which are pass funnels can and should change the way we create our daily fantasy lineups. Is a team’s stalwart run defense forcing opponents to the air at a remarkable rate? How about secondaries so dominant (or teams so bad) that opposing offenses are turning to the run more often than usual?
In this space, I’ll highlight which teams and players may benefit from squaring off against a run funnel or pass funnel defense in a given week, along with run-back options on the opposing team.
Analyzing pass and run funnel defenses can often generate DFS stacking ideas, both team stacks and game stacks. I’ll highlight stacking plays -- for DFS tournament purposes -- where I see fit. I’ve found evaluating run and pass funnels is an excellent starting point for exploiting matchups and crafting correlated lineups.
Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Cardinals
This game sets up well for the funnel defense truthers (there are dozens of us). Seattle’s hyper-efficient offense led by MVP candidate Geno Smith takes on an Arizona defense that ranks as the second most extreme pass funnel this year, while Kyler Murray and the Cardinals -- an offense finding their footing of late -- go against the NFL’s second most extreme run funnel defense.
Probably this game will be a popular source of stacking in Week 6 DFS contests. The game’s total has jumped from 47 to 50.5 over the past couple of days and it features what Pro Football Focus has deemed the league’s two worst coverage units. But maybe I’m overselling the public’s belief that a Geno-led Seattle offense can continue its high-scoring ways, even against a soft Cardinals defense allowing nearly six yards per play (11th-highest mark in the league) and the eighth-highest EPA per play.
If you’re intent on stacking this game, you’re starting with Geno and one or both of his primary pass catchers. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have combined for a 54 percent target share through Week 5 -- 28 percent for Metcalf and 26 percent for Lockett (who was added to the injury report Thursday with a hamstring issue). It’s Lockett who leads the team in air yards (and air yards per target), meaning he’s a more volatile option to stack alongside Geno. And that’s what we want in large-field tournament lineups: Volatility.
Lockett, if he’s not hampered by his hamstring injury, is almost always the superior Seattle wideout option when the Seahawks take on a defense that primarily plays zone coverage. And Arizona is a blitz-heavy defense that usually plays zone. Lockett this season against zone coverage has caught 21 of 25 targets for 247 yards and a touchdown. Metcalf -- an annihilator of man coverage -- has 13 receptions on 19 targets for 139 scoreless yards against zone in 2022, per Pro Football Focus.
Ken Walker, Seattle’s presumed workhorse after Rashaad Penny‘s season-ending injury, will be a popular, relatively low-priced option this week. His Week 6 matchup leaves much to be desired though. Arizona has been tough against the run, allowing the seventh-lowest EPA per rush, maybe -- just maybe -- explaining why the Cardinals have become such a prominent pass-funnel defense. Walker, much like Penny, is an explosive runner whose production will largely hinge on his ability to rip off long runs. Among running backs in the 2022 NFL Draft class, Walker had the second-highest rate of runs of more than 15 yards. If he doesn’t hit a big run (or two) against a stingy Arizona defense, Walker’s Week 6 output could be uninspiring, and certainly not difference-making in large-field DFS tournaments.
Deploying Seahawks passing game stacks might be a way to gain leverage on a field jamming Walker into their Week 6 lineups.
Eno Benjamin is in line for every-down duties in Week 6 with James Conner (ribs) out. Darrel Williams has already been ruled out with a knee sprain. Benjamin, who had eight rushes for 25 yards and three receptions for 28 yards last week against Philadelphia in relief of Conner, will certainly be a high-rostered option against the Seahawks, a defense allowing the seventh-highest EPA per rush in 2022.
Benjamin makes all the sense alongside a Seattle stack and will be tough to avoid if you want a piece of this game. Only the Bears are a more extreme run funnel than Seattle. Benjamin’s Week 5 usage was superb, as he saw three green zone touches against the Eagles and ran a route on 60 percent of Arizona’s dropbacks.
Game stack options
Smith, Lockett, and/or Metcalf, Ertz, Benjamin
Smith and Lockett, Benjamin
Murray, Marquise Brown, Benjamin, Metcalf or Lockett
Browns (-2.5) vs. Patriots
This game’s main appeal is in gaining massive leverage on a field that will surely flock to the two primary running backs in this contest: Rhamondre Stevenson and Nick Chubb.
Chubb is on a blistering pace, ripping off long run after long run as the Browns spread out their offense and put Chubb in more favorable positions. Chubb has 20 rushes of more than ten yards this season; no one else has more than 13. He’s averaging a downright silly 4.23 yards after contact per carry, the third highest rate in the NFL -- behind Tony Pollard and Chubb’s opposite number in Week 6, Stevenson.
The folks are likely going to jam Chubb into lineups, driven by a Fear of Missing Out that cannot be quantified. They’ll do this as Chubb takes on a New England defense allowing the fifth-highest EPA per rush. It all makes so much sense.
That should tickle your galaxy brain. Chubb is fantastic -- generational, even. He could pop off at any time. But what if he doesn’t? What if Bill Belichick‘s defense forces Cleveland to move the ball via the pass? What if the Patriots dare Kevin Stefanski to drop back and throw this week?
Amari Cooper, in such a scenario, would be the best bet for gaining leverage against a highly-rostered Chubb. New England has used man coverage at a 40 percent clip through Week 5, one of the highest rates in the league, according to Sharp Football Analysis. And Cooper has thrived against such coverage, earning a 33 percent target share versus cover-0 and cover-1 schemes.
Cooper’s 26 percent targets per route run share leads the Browns and ranks 16th among all receivers. He’s seen 38 percent of the team’s air yards this year and has the 12th-highest weighted opportunity rating among wideouts. If Cleveland is forced to lean on the pass, Cooper will see double-digit targets. The Patriots, by the bye, are a slight pass funnel defense.
Only four teams are more extreme run funnels than the Browns in this young season. Nearly every opponent has leaned on the run against Cleveland. The Falcons in Week 4 had a -14 percent pass rate over expected against the Browns; in Week 3, the Steelers posted a -5 percent PROE against Cleveland. Last week, the Chargers ran wild against the Browns while somehow having a slightly positive PROE. LA, no one’s idea of a rushing juggernaut, bludgeoned the Browns to the tune of 213 ground yards.
This shapes up well for Stevenson. The teens are calling him a “smash play” after his mouth-watering Week 5 usage following Damien Harris’ hamstring injury. And combining pass-catching work with early-down utilization against a run-funnel defense could make Stevenson worth rostering despite his potential popularity in GPP lineups. But if I could interest you in leverage and differentiation -- and I think I can -- may I propose rostering Jakobi Meyers instead of Stevenson?
Meyers, in his first game with Bailey Zappe, was an unapologetic target hog, commanding 40 percent of the team’s targets and dominating air yards in a low-volume passing attack as the Patriots destroyed Detroit. This is hardly new for Meyers in 2022. His 33 percent target per route run rate is the next closest New England receiver, Nelson Agohlor, who has a 20 percent TPRR. Meyers’ target domination is also impressive on a league-wide level: Only Drake London, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill have higher target per route run rates than Meyers through five weeks. Hill is the only receiver with a better yards per route run than Meyers.
If this Patriots-Browns game is going to subvert expectations -- leading to a relative bust for Chubb and/or Stevenson -- Meyers is going to be the main beneficiary on the New England side.
Game stack ideas
Cooper and Meyers or Stevenson
Brissett and Cooper, Meyers or Stevenson
Packers (-7) vs. Jets
I won’t usually tout running backs who have a good chance to succumb to negative game script. But when I do, it’ll be against massive run funnel defenses like Green Bay.
Only the Seahawks and Bears are more extreme run funnels than the Packers through the season’s first five weeks. And for good reason: Pro Football Focus grades Green Bay as the NFL’s third-worst rush defense, as they allow 126.7 yards per game on the ground (22nd in the league). No team allows a higher rushing success rate than the Pack. Everyone tries to establish it against the Packers, including the Giants in Week 5. New York, despite trailing for much of the game, had a -5 percent pass rate over expected. The Patriots also had a negative PROE in their Week 4 matchup with Green Bay.
Enter Breece Hall, who has seized the means of production in the Jets backfield over the past couple of weeks, relegating Michael Carter to RB2 goal line vulture status. Hall’s workload is legit: Only eight running backs have more expected fantasy points over the past two weeks. The one downside to Hall’s post-Flacco usage is that his pass routes and targets have largely dried up. Against the Dolphins in Week 5, Hall saw just two targets and ran a route on half of the Jets’ dropbacks. Carter, meanwhile, had a 33.3 percent route participation rate and also saw two targets. Here’s where I’ll mention Hall turned his two targets into 100 receiving yards.
Hall should get plenty of work for as long as the Jets can hang with the Packers. Who’s to say the Packers are any good after nearly losing to the Bailey Zappe-led Patriots in Week 4 and blowing a lead to Daniel Jones in Week 5? The Packers might stink. Aaron Rodgers is reportedly ready to retire, after all. There’s every reason to think the Jets can produce enough neutral game script to fuel a 20-touch outing for Hall.
The Jets are one of the rare defenses that qualifies as neither a pass nor a run funnel. That makes it tough to identify a good run-back option if you’re rolling with Hall this week. Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs are the obvious wideout choices if you think the Packers will go back and forth with the Jets. It’s possible, though tough to say for sure, Doubs had lost favor with Rodgers after a disastrous Week 4 in which the rookie lost a fumble and dropped a long touchdown against New England. Rodgers, in any case, keyed in on his old veterans last week against the Giants: Lazard, leading the team in pass routes, saw seven targets while Cobb -- seeing a spike in route participation rate -- had a whopping 11 targets. Doubs ran a full complement of snaps and had five looks from Rodgers.
Aaron Jones, who has a 19-12 target lead on AJ Dillon and has a route participation rate of 42 percent of Dillon’s 22.6 percent, could make sense as a mini-stack alongside Hall. Jones has quietly taken charge of the Green Bay backfield over the past two weeks. He has 27 expected fantasy points over that span to Dillon’s 12.9 expected points. Dillon has struggled mightily in 2022; perhaps the Packers have noticed.
Cobb and Jones are sneaky options here because, as Sharp Football’s Ryan McCrystal pointed out, Rodgers has resorted to checking down against defenses that play a lot of zone coverage and do not blitz. That’s the Jets defense in a nutshell. Nearly half of Rodgers’ 2022 attempts against zone haven’t cleared the line of scrimmage, per McCrystal. I’m wishy washy on the Green Bay options in this game but I’m sure someone will pop for a team sporting a 26-point implied total against a middling defense.
Game stack ideas
Hall, Jones, and one of Lazard, Doubs, or Cobb
Hall and of one Lazard, Cobb, or Doubs
Rodgers and one of Cobb, Lazard, or Doubs, and Hall