Kyle Dvorchak gives his final mock draft of Round 1 and breaks down what has changed as we near the 2023 NFL Draft.
Dvorchak’s NFL Mock Draft 3.0
1. Carolina Panthers (via the Bears)
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Sportsbooks have nearly called the race for Young, with most listing him well beyond -1000 odds. Young displayed elite efficiency in college and is as mechanically sound as they come. The only issue is his size, but it’s one the Panthers are understandably looking past.
2. Houston Texans
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Taking another tip from the oddsmakers, Levis is a slight favorite to go second overall and it doesn’t look like the Texans are going to be able to trade out of the pick. Levis is far more of a project than Young but does boast elite physical attributes. Levis wouldn’t be my choice—he ranks as my QB4—this high in the draft, though I’m only trying to get the most picks correct with this mock draft.
3. Indianapolis Colts (projected trade with Cardinals)
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
This pick is the same as my previous mock draft, with the caveat that Indy passes on C.J. Stroud in favor of Richardson this time around. Stroud’s stock is seemingly plummeting at the worst time and Richardson may be the most “toolsy” quarterback of the class.
4. Arizona Cardinals (projected trade with Colts)
Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Most books have Wilson as a slight favorite to be the first defender off the board. Arizona would love to continue trading down, but it will be hard for the Cardinals to do so with cold water being poured on the last quarterback available if the board falls this way.
5. Seattle Seahawks
Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
Seattle could easily take Stroud and develop him for a year behind Geno Smith. That becomes harder to do with Anderson on the board. A majority of scouts and analysts see him as the top defender and, at No. 5 overall, he would be a steal.
6. Detroit Lions (via the Rams)
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The Lions made efforts to bolster their cornerback room in free agency, but none of their additions were costly enough to dissuade GM Brad Holmes from adding a blue-chip prospect at the position.
7. Las Vegas Raiders
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
The Titans, Vikings, and a number of other teams could trade up to land a falling Stroud, but, in this scenario, the Raiders are in a perfect position to end the Buckeye’s tumble.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
In my previous mock drafts, I’ve had Robinson falling deep into the 20s. It never felt realistic for a prospect as highly-regarded as Bijan to fall that far, but that’s how the board was falling. Now, it looks like the run-first Falcons are eying an elite back.
9. Chicago Bears (via the Panthers)
Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
No surprises here as the Bears have consistently been expected to take a tackle with their pick and nothing has changed since my last mock.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via the Saints)
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
This is likely the backstop for Carter’s slide. If Eagles GM Howie Roseman, who is famous for building through the trenches, has the best defensive tackle prospect in recent years available to him, it makes this pick a no-brainer.
11. Tennessee Titans
Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Skoronski may ultimately play guard at the next level, but no matter where he plays, he is going to excel. The Titans can afford to try him at guard or tackle given their needs at both positions.
12. Houston Texans (via the Browns)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The Texans are fortunate to be able to add a rookie quarterback while still providing him with a first-round receiver to throw to. JSN is most commonly mocked to the Texans by Pro Football Focus’s drafters and has the highest odds of going at 12th overall according to ESPN’s Draft Predictor.
(NOTE: This was updated to reflect the Aaron Rodgers trade)
13. Green Bay Packers (via the Jets)
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Gonzalez may be the best value of the first round in this mock. Many view him as the best cornerback prospect of the class. Luckily for Green Bay, other teams prioritized needs at tackle and quarterback before this pick.
14. New England Patriots
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Porter is a physical, outside corner who projects as the team’s future CB1.
15. New York Jets (via the Packers)
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Jets have a lot of moving parts at tackle but no sure bets. Jones gives New York stability at one of the most important positions in football.
16. Washington Commanders
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Kincaid is currently the favorite to hear his name called first among tight ends. He is an elite receiving prospect who would immediately step into a prominent role as a pass-catcher for Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Pittsburgh has to improve its offensive line for Kenny Pickett‘s second season. The Steelers started this process in free agency but need to keep going with a first-round tackle.
18. Detroit Lions
Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
The Lions can double down on improving their defense with their two first-round picks given how much talent they have on offense. I ultimately see them splitting their selections between corner and defensive line.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Harrison is a borderline first-round pick according to most draft pundits. However, I think the Bucs are desperate enough at tackle to reach for him.
20. Seattle Seahawks
O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida
If the Seahawks pass on the available quarterback with the first pick in the draft, it means they are all-in on Geno Smith. If that’s the case, it makes sense for them to shore up their offensive line with the best interior lineman in the class.
21. Los Angeles Chargers
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Keenan Allen will be a cut candidate next offseason, and, even if he stays with the team for years to come, Justin Herbert needs another underneath weapon to work with.
22. Baltimore Ravens
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Baltimore needs help at wide receiver, even after signing Odell Beckham, and Johnston has the traits of an elite threat on the outside. The Ravens could keep Mark Andrews in the slot while deploying Rashod Bateman and Johnston as boundary receivers.
23. Minnesota Vikings
Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
The buzz of Hooker landing with the Vikings has reached a fevered pitch and I buy the connection. Kirk Cousins will be a free agent after 2023, giving the Vikings a perfect runway to let Hooker recover from a torn ACL and acclimate to an NFL offense for a season before taking over.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Branch, S, Alabama
The Jags need help at multiple spots in their secondary and Branch has the versatility to fill them. He was a slot corner at Alabama but many project him to move to safety in the NFL. For Jacksonville, he can do both.
25. New York Giants
Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Though Addison’s role as a slot receiver is already filled by a handful of players on the Giants’ roster, none of them are valuable enough to pass on the former Biletnikoff winner. After fielding one of the worst receiving corps in 2022, the Giants can make things right via the draft.
26. Dallas Cowboys
Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
The Cowboys’ defense is stacked at nearly every position, but defensive tackle may be their only weak spot. Bresee still has some work to do as he transitions to the NFL, but the Cowboys can afford to let him develop.
27. Buffalo Bills
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
If any of the top receivers were available, Bills GM Brandon Beane would be running to the podium to get one of them. In this scenario, he settles for a freakishly-athletic corner who can start in Week 1.
28. Cincinnati Bengals
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
The Bengals could go in a number of directions with this pick. Taking a tight end who many believe is the best player at his position in this class would be the best direction available.
29. New Orleans (via the 49ers)
Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Van Ness would be one of the biggest fallers of the draft in this scenario, but it makes sense with plenty of teams ahead of New Orleans prioritizing offensive positions. Adding Van Ness would bolster a defensive line that took multiple hits in free agency.
30. Philadelphia Eagles
Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
The Eagles hardly have needs because of how deep their roster is at every position. However, they did lose a handful of pass-rushers in free agency, so it won’t be a surprise to see them double down on defensive linemen in the first round.
31. Kansas City Chiefs
Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech
After cutting Frank Clark for cap space, EDGE is the biggest need for Kansas City heading into the draft. White’s path to the NFL has been a winding road, but he has the physical traits of an elite pass-rusher. He is the type of high-upside bet Kansas City should be looking for.
