The 2017 season playoffs have been some of the best NFL playoffs we’ve had in some time. Hopefully, the Eagles and Patriots will put a bow on the strong postseason and deliver a great game Sunday in the Super Bowl. If the game is anything like the Super Bowls that New England has played in involving Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, then it certainly will be. In the previous seven Super Bowl games played by this current New England Dynasty, all seven of those games were decided by six points or less with six of them decided by four points or fewer. From a fantasy stance, outside of quarterback play, both of these teams strike with diversity in using their entire personnel rather than leaning on sole contributors each week to carry their offenses, which means that the counting stats here can go in a number of directions. With that said, we’re going to try to steer towards a few of those possible players, beginning with a snapshot on the matchup.
Philadelphia vs New England
| Patriots | Rank | @ | Eagles | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Spread | 4.5 | ||
| 26.3 | Implied Total | 21.8 | ||
| 28.7 | 2 | Points/Gm | 28.3 | 3 |
| 18.3 | 5 | Opp. Points/Gm | 17.3 | 2 |
| 50.7% | 5 | Avg. TOP | 54.6% | 1 |
| 67.3 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 66.7 | 4 |
| 64.1 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.2 | 6 |
| 40.8% | 19 | Rush% | 44.6% | 9 |
| 59.2% | 14 | Pass% | 55.4% | 24 |
| 37.9% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 34.0% | 1 |
| 62.1% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 66.0% | 32 |
| 113.1 | 15 | Rush Yd/Gm | 128.9 | 4 |
| 111.2 | 16 | Opp. RuYd/Gm | 79.1 | 1 |
| 280.7 | 2 | Pass Yd/Gm | 240.1 | 11 |
| 249.7 | 30 | Opp. PaYd/Gm | 227.5 | 17 |
| 7.4% | 6 | Def. Sack Rate | 5.8% | 23 |
| 5.3% | 12 | Opp. Sack Rate | 5.7% | 13 |
| 0.7 | 2 | Turnovers/Gm | 1.2 | 12 |
| 1.0 | 27 | TakeAways/Gm | 1.9 | 4 |
| 5.6 | 2 | Penalties/Gm | 6.9 | 23 |
*Includes Postseason
Quarterbacks
1. Tom Brady
2. Nick Foles
After a pedestrian final five weeks of the regular season, Tom Brady has been stellar through two games in the postseason, completing 67 percent (61-of-91) of his passes for 337 and 290 yards passing yards with five total touchdowns and no turnovers. Brady has now thrown multiple touchdown passes in nine of his 10 postseason games over the past three seasons. The Eagles’ pass defense has been hot, holding the past four opposing quarterbacks they’ve faced – Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan and Case Keenum- under 6.0 yards per pass attempt in each game with four total touchdown passes. All four of those games came with benefit of being played in Philadelphia, where the Eagles held eight of the 10 opposing quarterbacks they faced this season to throw one or fewer touchdown passes. On the road, however, the Eagles have surrendered 15 or more passing points for fantasy to five of the past seven quarterbacks they’ve faced. The Eagles have been more vulnerable on the ground to close the season than they were in the early stages of the year, but they still edge closer to being a true pass funnel defense that should cater to Brady coming out throwing the ball early and often to establish offense for the Patriots. Opponents have thrown the ball 60.5 percent of the time versus the Eagles with the score within eight points in either direction outside of the 4th quarter, which is the fourth-highest rate in the league. I’m anticipating the Patriots having a similar offensive game plan here as to when they faced the Titans to open the postseason.
Foles was only truly awful in one his starts while the Eagles have put together two strong game plans to start the postseason. That said, Foles still has a small sample size of just four full games after taking over for Carson Wentz that is bookended by two monster fantasy games versus the Giants (25.5 points) and Vikings (26.1) surrounding two low scoring totals versus the Raiders (8.5) and Falcons (9.6). In those two huge games, Foles threw seven touchdown passes on 71 pass attempts while throwing just one touchdown pass on the 79 throws in-between. The Patriots aren’t the exploitable pass defense that they were to start the season, but they’ve still allowed 15 or more fantasy points to four of the past six quarterbacks they’ve faced with 250 or more passing yards to five of those passers while forcing just one interception to eight touchdowns over that span. There’s a clear talent gap from Brady to Foles and Foles has a wider range of outcomes in terms of touchdown production and efficiency, but Foles should turn in a serviceable fantasy line in terms of yardage.
Running Backs
1. Dion Lewis
2. Jay Ajayi
3. James White
4. Rex Burkhead
The Patriots trailed on the scoreboard for just 26 percent of their snaps this season (the fewest in the league), while the Eagles came in at fourth, trailing for just 29.1 percent. Because both teams controlled the game script so heavily this season, both teams faced more running back production through the air then the ground. 58.7 percent of the PPR points scored by opposing running backs against the Eagles came via the passing game, which was the second-highest rate in the league. New England came in at sixth in the same category, with 51.7 percent of the points scored by backs coming through the air.
This bodes well for the Patriots backs as the trio of Deion Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead combined to catch 141 passes for 1,059 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season to date. The backs in New England are always a heavy part of the passing game and they should come out and rely on their intermediate passing game and their backs to establish offense here with the Eagles being a sound rushing defense.
NE RB Usage
| Player | Snaps | Touch% | TmPass% | TmRush% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 480 | 57.9% | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Rex Burkhead | 198 | 48.5% | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| James White | 447 | 25.3% | 83.2% | 16.8% |
The Patriots backfield has largely only been a two-headed beast this season, just that the two backs in use have rotated throughout the season due to injuries and performance. What started out as Mike Gillislee and James White manifested into Dion Lewis and White and then Lewis and Burkhead before coming back around to Lewis and White to close the regular season, which has carried into the postseason. The overriding constant here in role has been Lewis, who is the guy we have the most faith in for fantasy production.
The Patriots are by far the most balanced as an offense when Lewis is in the game. If the script favors the Patriots, his carries can overcome a tougher draw against an opponent that has allowed just 3.4 YPC to opposing backs on the season (third in the league). Lewis has had modest rushing lines of 62 and 34 yards so far in the postseason on 24 carries, so it’s not as if he’s contingent on a huge rushing performance in the first place to turn in a viable fantasy total. Even if those totals on the ground remain similar here, Lewis has five or more receptions in five of his past six games with 16 receptions on 18 targets in the two postseason games played so far. One real rub is that Lewis has also been lifted near the end zone through two playoff games so far, tallying just one the seven rushing attempts by New England backs inside of the 10-yard line so far this postseason. Still, even without a touchdown, he’s the best option for opportunity.
White has managed just 40 and 26 total yards from scrimmage in each of the playoff games, but has played 32 and 33 snaps in those contests while scoring a touchdown in each of those games. Finding the end zone in the postseason is something White is fond of, scoring seven touchdowns over the five postseason games played over the past two seasons. White has out-carried Lewis 4-1 inside of the 10-yard line this postseason and turned two of those opportunities into touchdowns. Burkhead returned for the AFC Championship game, but he managed just three total snaps early in the game. With the Patriots unable to run the ball at all on Jacksonville in that game while trailing by multiple possessions throughout as the game progressed, we may see his usage rise on Sunday, but he is the sketchiest bet of the trio here for production.
If game script remains neutral, the edge in rushing defenses still belongs to the Eagles, however. Even while controlling script so heavily, the Patriots were just middle of the pack versus the run in raw totals, ranking 18th in yards per game (95.8) to opposing backfields while ranking 31st in YPC (4.7 yards) to opposing backs. If there’s a team that is going to run the ball well Sunday, my bet would be on the Eagles being the more effective team if they are able to keep the game script in check.
PHI RB Usage with all active
| Player | Snaps/Gm | Touch% | TmPass% | TmRush% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 27.4 | 48.2% | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| LeGarrette Blount | 19.1 | 34.9% | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Corey Clement | 21.1 | 28.4% | 71.6% | 28.4% |
With their entire backfield intact, the Eagles have relied on Ajayi the most with his usage increasing regularly as the season has unfolded. Ajayi has 12 or more touches in six straight games played with 16, 18 and 21 over his past three. The Eagles are a balanced offense with him in the game, using him in the passing game as well. Ajayi has multiple receptions with more than 20 yards in each of his past four games. The only worry with Ajayi reaching a ceiling performance outside of game script is that there’s still potential for him to get removed near the end zone. Since joining Philadelphia, Ajayi has just one of the 10 rushing attempts by Eagle running backs from inside of the 5-yard line.
That leaves the door open for LeGarrette Blount to find the end zone if the Eagles reach that portion of the field, but if there’s a dark horse for production here, it’s Clement for if the game script skews negative. He’s playing a healthy amount of snaps and is the team’s primary passing game back, something advantageous as mentioned in the open for the position.
Pass Catchers
2. Zach Ertz
6. Chris Hogan
8. Torrey Smith
9. Trey Burton
10. Phillip Dorsett
We’re merging all the pass catchers into one category here because both tight ends are the best passing game options for each respective team. Gronk still needs to officially clear concussion protocol, but he is expected to be good to go for Sunday. Prior to being forced from the game against Jacksonville, Gronk caught 34-of-48 targets for 545 yards and four touchdowns in his past five games outside of Week 17. Middle of the pack versus tight ends on the season, the Eagles have been roughed up against the best of the position from fantasy they’ve faced, allowing five or more catches to Jordan Reed and Evan Engram twice each as well as Travis Kelce while allowing touchdowns to Kyle Rudolph, Hunter Henry and Jimmy Graham outside of those players.
PHI Pass Catchers with Foles
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 39 | 29 | 291 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 29 | 18 | 237 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 26 | 15 | 213 | 3 |
| Torrey Smith | 24 | 11 | 130 | 1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 14 | 11 | 133 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 10 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 7 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 5 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Only four tight ends reached 50-yards against the Patriots all season long with a game-high of 68 yards, but Ertz has been the most reliable target for the Eagles regardless of quarterback this season. The Patriots will undoubtedly make him a focus of their defensive game plan, but the Eagles will also make him a large part of their offensive game plan and is the Philadelphia receiver we can count on for reliable volume.
Outside of Ertz, the Eagles’ target dispersal among their wide receivers has been flat with Foles under center. Alshon Jeffery will lock up Stephon Gilmore for the majority of Sunday, but Jeffery is no stranger to high-end corner play this season. Jeffery has already squared off against Janoris Jenkins, Patrick Peterson, Aqib Talib, Josh Norman and Xavier Rhodes this season among others. Those tough draws contributed to the fact that Jeffery hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game on the season -and he has reached 70-yards receiving just four times - but he is still the Philadelphia wideout with the highest scoring potential. Jeffery leads the team in touchdowns receiving (11) while leading the team in targets (nine) and receptions (seven) from inside of the 10-yard line on the year.
After being targeted 16 times in Foles’ first two games under center, Agholor has managed to catch just 9-of-10 targets for 94 yards over his past three games combined while failing to reach 60-yards receiving in a game since Week 14. He has the best individual draw of the Philadelphia wideouts inside against Eric Rowe, who allowed a reception once every 12.3 snaps in coverage in the slot this season per Pro Football Focus, which was the eighth-highest rate for all players to play at least 100 snaps in the slot this season.
Torrey Smith’s 69 yards in the NFC Championship game were nice, but 41 came on a flea flicker and he managed just 61 yards total in Foles’ starts prior. The Patriots ranked fourth in the league in allowing a 32.9 percent catch rate on throws 15-yards or further downfield on the season.
We mentioned the playoff lore of James White earlier and Danny Amendola is right there with him. After last year’s Super Bowl performance, Amendola has been the best pass catcher for New England this postseason, notching 11-112-0 on 13 targets versus the Titans in the Divisional Round and then turning in a 7-84-2 line on nine targets versus the Jaguars to send the Patriots to the Super Bowl. Amendola will match up with Patrick Robinson inside, who had a strong individual campaign, as the Eagles allowed just four touchdowns from the slot this season.
Brandin Cooks is in an interesting spot because of how he was used by New England and how that plays into this matchup. No player relied on the deep ball more than Cooks this season as 69.8 percent of his receiving yardage came on receptions that were 15 yards or further downfield. The Eagles have allowed just three touchdown passes on throw 15-yards or further downfield all season long, including the postseason, which is tied for the fewest in the league.
Hogan now has 29 yards receiving on four catches over his three games since his Week 8 shoulder injury. Despite those lowly counting stats, Hogan is still getting a lot of playing time, participating on 90 percent, 83 percent and 91 percent of the New England snaps in those games. Hogan will get Jalen Mills, who has been the most vulnerable of the Philadelphia defensive backs. Mills has allowed nine touchdowns in his coverage this season, the most on the team, but has come on strong of late, allowing just three receptions in his coverage over his past three games played.
Kickers
2. Jake Elliott
Both kickers are strong options here with Gostkowski getting the edge as being attached to the higher team total. Gostkowski has multiple field goals in 13 games this season, which is third in the league while Elliott had 11 such games in one fewer week played.
DST
1. New England
2. Philadelphia
The Eagles have been outstanding on defense over the past four weeks, allowing opponents to score on just six of their past 44 possessions over the past four weeks and on just 3-of-18 drives in the postseason. The Eagles force more turnovers than the Patriots, but the Patriots are a team that doesn’t turn the ball over and they allow fewer sacks. For as much of an edge the Philadelphia defensive front is considered, the Patriots generate more counting sacks at a higher rate, which gives them a fantasy edge here as the favored defense.
