Fantasy football victories are growing increasingly important by the week, and the season-long D/ST ranks are undergoing a few troublesome changes. Minnesota has recorded just two sacks in three games since a Week 6 bye, while Denver (160.3 ypg) and Seattle (139.0 ypg) have been gouged by opposing running games during that same span. Along with underperforming top-end units, the Week 10 NFL slate is generous enough to provide four more byes and a slew of tough matchups in the world of fantasy special teams. The regular season stretch run has arrived. Let’s get to work.
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Tier 1: Top-Tier Locks
The lowly defense of the New Orleans Saints managed a top-10 fantasy finish against the 49ers in Week 9, so the Arizona Cardinals (vs San Francisco) are looking at a lofty ceiling this week. Colin Kaepernick has turned the ball over twice in each of the last two weeks and the Cardinals should be ready to roll at home following a Week 9 bye. Arizona is nearly a two touchdown favorite in this game that has the look of a blowout waiting to happen.
Surprisingly, the D/ST with the most top-10 fantasy finishes this season is the Baltimore Ravens (vs Cleveland), who will host the Browns on Thursday night. Rookie QB Cody Kessler has been relatively careful with the ball in his starts this season, but the Browns have allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL and are a fine matchup for the Ravens D/ST on a short week.
The Carolina Panthers (vs Kansas City) have been on a roll since their Week 7 bye, racking up 12 sacks in two impressive defensive performances. The Carolina pass defense has had its issues this season, but the Chiefs own the NFL’s 21st-ranked passing offense and have topped 270 passing yards in just two games this season. Look for the Panthers to continue their surge against Alex Smith and his crew.
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Tier 2: Second Tier, But Startable
The slumping Los Angeles Rams (at NY Jets) were able to sack Cam Newton five times in Week 9, ending a sack drought that had troubled Jeff Fisher’s defense. Turnovers are still an issue for the Rams, who haven’t intercepted a pass since Week 4, but help should be coming on Sunday. Los Angeles will face either the NFL leader in interceptions (Ryan Fitzpatrick) or a rookie quarterback who owns a whopping two career pass attempts (Bryce Petty). The ingredients are in place for a solid performance from the Rams D/ST.
The Kansas City Chiefs (at Carolina) D/ST has scored double-digit fantasy points (per Yahoo scoring) in four consecutive weeks and recorded 10 turnovers and 11 sacks in that same span. The Chiefs will travel to Carolina in Week 10, where they will put their NFL-leading takeaway skills to the test. Carolina managed just 13 points against Los Angeles last week while allowing five sacks, so the Chiefs D/ST will have a great shot at continuing its recent surge.
Since their Week 6 bye, the Minnesota Vikings (at Washington) have recorded just two sacks after racking up 19 in the season’s first five games. The Vikings are still locking down opposing passing games, but their run defense has slipped in recent weeks. A matchup with Washington isn’t intimidating from a rushing offense standpoint, so the Vikings D/ST should be able to turn in a formidable performance, but this group is slumping since the bye and a road game is not the most opportune spot to bet on a rebound.
The defense of the Houston Texans (at Jacksonville) has played far better at home than on the road this season, but a date with Blake Bortles is a cushy spot for any fantasy D/ST. Bortles has 10 interceptions on the year, good for third among NFL quarterbacks, and the Jaguars check-in third among NFL teams in turnovers. Houston should be a safe play this week.
The Washington Redskins (vs Minnesota) were on bye in Week 9, but stacked up a serious total of 14 sacks in four weeks prior to the off-week. The Vikings have had offensive line issues this season, and have allowed seven sacks in their last two contests. Minnesota doesn’t turn the ball over much but Washington should have a solid enough sack total in this game to be playable in most leagues.
Rams quarterback Case Keenum has turned the ball over at least once in seven of eight games this season, and will be handing the ball over to the New York Jets (vs Los Angeles) this week. The Rams have scored 10 points or less in half of their games this season, and should be easy prey for the Jets. Run defense has been the lone bright spot for the Jets this season and if Todd Gurley is shut down by the New York defensive front, it will be a long day of Keenum firing the ball to the wrong team on Sunday.
The NY Giants (vs Cincinnati) have underachieved defensively this season but forced six turnovers in their last two games to go along with five sacks. Opposing passing games are still getting to the Giants, but they should be able to pressure Andy Dalton this week as the Bengals have allowed 25 sacks this season, the third-highest total among NFL teams.
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Tier 3: Not As Safe As Usual
Despite a serious dip in run stopping, the defense of the Denver Broncos (at New Orleans) is still a quality unit that is playable in nearly every situation. One situation where that may not be the case is on the road at New Orleans. The Saints average 30.3 points per game and are lethal at home in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, creating a rare circumstance where the Broncos D/ST is a risky bet. The Saints generally rely on the arm of Drew Brees but have run for 100 or more yards in three-straight games, which could be an issue for the struggling Denver run defense.
The Seattle offense appeared to have woken up on Monday night, and the Seahawks will now face the New England Patriots (vs Seattle) in Week 10. New England is a heavy favorite in this game, but their lack of takeaways combined with Seattle’s stingy ways on offense will likely limit the upside of the Patriots D/ST this week. Playing fantasy defenses at home as large favorites is usually a winning formula, but this play isn’t as safe as it seems on paper.
Tom Brady has yet to turn the ball over since his return from suspension, so the Seattle Seahawks (at New England) will have their work cut out for them in Week 10. The best bet for fantasy production from the Seahawks D/ST is through sacks, as Seattle has wrecked opposing passers with 19 sacks in their last five games. Still, the Patriots have kept their quarterbacks relatively clean this season and are a brutal road matchup for a West Coast team like Seattle.
Tier 4: Stream Team
The Chicago Bears (at Tampa Bay) have quietly improved defensively, and the Bears D/ST has turned in three-straight top-10 fantasy finishes. A road game at Tampa isn’t overly intimidating, as Jameis Winston can turn the ball over with ease and the Bucs are on their 147th-string running back.
Tennessee has been friendly to fantasy D/ST’s this season, but the Green Bay Packers (at Tennessee) have not been defensively impressive in recent weeks. The Pack has generally been solid against the run in 2016, so if they can corral DeMarco Murray, hopefully the Packers D/ST can take advantage of Marcus Mariota, who threw two pick-sixes in Week 9.
The defense of the Philadelphia Eagles (vs Atlanta) has been solid this season, but a matchup with the Atlanta Falcons is not a good spot for a fantasy D/ST. The Falcons have scored 35.3 points per game over the last three weeks and that is barely above their season average. With a trip to Seattle on the schedule for Week 11, the Eagles D/ST could be a safe drop if roster spaces are at a premium.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Houston) are not a quality group on the defensive side of the ball, but Houston QB Brock Osweiler can make any defense look good. Osweiler has thrown for 186 yards or less in three of his last four games and has thrown for an average of 170.3 yards per game on the road this season. This tasty matchup makes the Jaguars D/ST useable in a pinch.
Looking Ahead
Below you will find a battle plan for the next few weeks, including how to handle defenses on bye, future streamers, and lesser-owned DST options with attractive upcoming schedules.
Week 10 Byes: Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Oakland are on bye in Week 10. While Oakland and Detroit will emerge from the bye with favorable schedules, none of these D/ST are worth holding through the bye.
Potential Week 11 Streaming Candidates:
Dallas Cowboys (57% owned, Week11 vs Baltimore)
Oakland Raiders (40% owned, Week 11 vs Houston)
Tennessee Titans (26% owned, Week 11 at Indianapolis)
Miami Dolphins (23% owned, Week 11 at Los Angeles)
Detroit Lions (10% owned, Week 11 vs Jacksonville)
D/ST Watch List
Looking further into the future, below are D/ST options with less than 50% ownership and advantageous upcoming schedules.
Pittsburgh (41% owned)
The Steelers host Dallas in Week 10 before hitting the road for two juicy matchups. Playing a road D/ST isn’t always ideal but trips to Cleveland (Week 11) and Indianapolis (Week 12) could produce piles of points.
Oakland (40% owned)
The Raiders are on bye this week, but will return in Week 11 with three consecutive home games. Oakland will host Houston, Carolina, and Buffalo.
Miami (23% owned)
The Dolphins travel to San Diego in a less than ideal spot this week, but have matchups at Los Angeles and home against San Francisco in Weeks 11 and 12.
Detroit (10% owned)
The Lions are on bye in Week 10, but will emerge from the bye with home games against Jacksonville and Minnesota.
Take Your Kick
Below are the top kicker options for Week 10 of the fantasy football season. The Week 10 slate provides multiple matchups with high expected point totals, resulting in some enticing kicker options.
1. Justin Tucker, BAL (vs CLE)
2. Chandler Catanzaro, ARZ (vs SF)
3. Stephen Gostkowski, NE (vs SEA)
4. Josh Lambo, SD (vs MIA)
5. Robbie Gould, NYG (vs CIN)
6. Dustin Hopkins, WAS (vs MIN)
7. Mason Crosby, GB (at TEN)
8. Matt Bryant, ATL (at PHI)
9. Caleb Sturgis, PHI (vs ATL)
10. Brandon McManus, DEN (at NO)
11. Wil Lutz, NO (vs DEN)
12. Dan Bailey, DAL (at PIT)
13. Graham Gano, CAR (vs KC)
14. Steven Hauschka, SEA ( at NE)
15. Connor Barth, CHI (at TB)
