This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.
Philip Rivers vs. Titans -- QB19 (FanDuel, QB17, $6,800)
Our Expert Rankings include all players active on a given week while the DFS Price (QB19 for Rivers) only includes players on the sites’ respective main slate. That means that if a player is ranked higher than their price, the value is even larger than the small discrepancy would suggest. Rivers has been a solid passer this year. He’s 12th in yards per attempt and passing yards per game. Versus a Titans Defense that is allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game, Rivers projects as the best punt play on FanDuel. [[ad:athena]]
Matt Ryan vs. Raiders -- QB15 (DraftKings, QB13, $5,900)
Ryan and the Falcons are currently three-point underdogs in an indoor game with a total of 53 points. Because they continue to find creative ways to lose games, Atlanta is fifth in the league in pass attempts per game. There isn’t much else to say. Ryan is a good quarterback heading into a great game for DFS purposes. With a full cast of weapons at his disposal, Ryan’s upside in this spot is immense.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Buccaneers -- QB1 (Yahoo, QB3, $37)
Mahomes is always in play, it’s simply a question of whether his price is viable within the constraints of a salary cap or not. This week, Yahoo has him priced as the QB3, tied with Justin Herbert. That is despite the Chiefs having the highest implied team total of the week. Kansas City is only favored by three points though, which should keep them passing at a high frequency throughout the game. They pass at the seventh-highest rate when within a touchdown of their opponent.
Derrick Henry vs. Colts -- RB4 (FanDuel, RB3, $8,300)
Henry is ranked as a modest value but he isn’t likely to garner much usage on tournaments among the expensive runners. That makes whatever value there is to be had on him much more intriguing. He may end up being less popular because of a difficult matchup versus the Indy run defense. However, Henry has faced four top-ten run defense units per Pro Football Focus and has topped 100 yards in two of those matchups. The Colts are also dealing with a slew of injuries to their defense. Indianapolis’s ability to stop Henry could end up being greatly overstated by the time Sunday roles around.
James Robinson vs. Browns -- RB7 (DraftKings, RB8, $6,300)
Robinson is simply seeing more of his team’s running back opportunities than any other back in the league. His 80 percent rush attempt market share leads all running backs by a considerable margin but he also adds value as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Robinson’s 11 percent target share is top-20 among running backs. The Jaguars are also without receiving back Chris Thompson, who was taking away third-down work from Robinson early in the year. Robinson remains the best bet for overall volume outside of Dalvin Cook.
Josh Jacobs vs. Falcons -- RB5 (Yahoo, RB9, $25)
Jacobs has been a monster whenever the Raiders win and Vegas has them pegged to take home another victory this week. He has averaged 23.5 carries for 94 yards and 1.3 touchdowns in wins this year. In losses, those numbers drop to 14.5 carries for 47.8 yards and .3 scores. No running back is more affected by game-script than Jacobs because of his lack of involvement as a pass-catcher but that doesn’t figure to be a problem this week. As a favorite, Jacobs is one of the best overall plays on any slate.
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Cooper Kupp vs. 49ers -- WR12 (FanDuel, WR15, $6,700)
Kupp has quietly become one of the most-used receivers in the NFL this season. He’s top-ten in targets and receptions among wideouts. This week, he faces a 49ers defensive unit that has been crushed by regression and injuries. Last year, they were second in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed. This year, they are almost perfectly average at 15th overall. Kupp even has room to increase his fantasy output. Despite the incredible volume he’s seeing, Kupp only has two touchdowns on the year.
Tyler Boyd vs. Giants -- WR30 (DraftKings, WR31, $5,000)
Of all the Cincinnati receivers, Boyd seems like the most likely to survive the Brandon Allen era. Boyd plays over three-quarters of his snaps from the slot and has an average depth of target of 8.4 yards. That’s 19th out of the 24 receivers with at least 70 targets. Boyd’s routes are easy to hit, even for backup passers like Allen. This week, the Bengals are underdogs once again, which should put them in a position to have another game with high passing volume. This price is simply too low for Boyd based on his volume
Allen Robinson vs. Packers -- WR16 (Yahoo, WR19, $19)
Robinson will be catching balls from Mitchell Trubisky this week and although he didn’t find much success the last time this happened, his volume remained constant. Trubisky started and finished under center for two weeks this year and Robinson was seeing more work than most receivers could dream of in that brief sample. He earned a 39 percent air yards share and a 27 percent target share. While his looks may be generally less accurate with Trubsiky on the throwing end, efficiency is far flukier than volume. Trubsiky’s presence shouldn’t force us into ignoring one of the league’s alpha receivers at a greatly diminished price.
Hayden Hurst vs. Raiders -- TE8 (FanDuel, TE10, $5,500)
Hurst is questionable as of Saturday morning but looks more likely to suit up than not. Assuming he does play, Hurst is a cheap way to tap into a game that should be a staple of DFS lineups. He is running a route on 85.6 of Ryan’s dropbacks and has a 14.9 percent target share. Both marks are top-15 among tight ends. Hurst earns a large enough share of a massive pie to be a viable target in tournaments this week.
Austin Hooper vs. Jacksonville -- TE10 (DraftKings, TE12, $3,800)
The Jaguars are allowing the seventh-most points to tight ends this year and Hooper has cemented himself as the only tight end of note on the Browns since returning from his appendectomy. He only has seven targets in his two games back but that is six more than all other Cleveland tight ends. The Browns also have the third-highest implied team total of the main slate at 28.25 points. While the Browns may not throw often, they are projected to put up points in droves and Hooper is their starting tight end. You can do far worse when looking for an affordable option at the position.
Gerald Everett vs. 49ers -- TE20 (Yahoo, TE21, $10)
Tight end is a wasteland of epic proportion beyond Travis Kelce and Darren Waller this week. Both players are priced appropriately meaning that we’ll need to look elsewhere for value. All the way down at the minimum price of $10 on Yahoo sits Everett. He isn’t a free square by any means but he does appear to have separated himself as the better pass-catching tight end to target in LA. Since Tyler Higbee returned from a hand injury in Week 8, Everett has two more targets. He also has the only tight end targets in the red zone for the Rams over that span. Everett is an intriguing punt play on Yahoo this week.
