Week 10 is here, and we’re really closing in on making our final push towards the fantasy postseason. Hopefully everyone is setting up a playoff run, but if you’ve been unfortunate this season in your leagues, there’s always DFS to keep the fantasy juices flowing. Week 10 is modest four-team bye week, so make sure to have all of your Texans, Broncos, Vikings and Ravens out of your lineups.
For those that are new here, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.
As the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is an expectations-based column over a linear start/sit forum. The labels for each subset of players for each game is simply the vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player. Players that are high performers week-to-week are held to different standards than a secondary option in an offense. Every player runs into down weeks, and we’re trying to identify those moments, even for the star players you’re going to ride through thick and thin moments that don’t tally many low points during the season. That said, we’re still embracing some of the elements that will go along with a start/sit column as a byproduct of those expectations. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin’s Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. If you are curious as to my personal weekly rankings, they can be found each and every week in the Season Pass section.
Editor’s Note: If you love Fantasy Football you have to be playing on DRAFT. It’s daily fantasy football snake drafts instead of salary caps. All the fun of season long drafts but with no management and they last for just one week. They take minutes to complete and there’s even auction drafts! No more setting lineups or constantly worrying about pros, just draft and win! Right now DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers an exclusive FREE entry into a real money draft when you make your first deposit! Here’s the link
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All lines are taken from VegasInsider on Tuesday nights
Panthers @ Steelers
| Carolina | Rank | @ | Pittsburgh | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spread | -4 | ||
| 23.8 | Implied Total | 27.8 | ||
| 27.5 | 11 | Points/Gm | 28.4 | 9 |
| 22.5 | 12 | Points All./Gm | 23.5 | 15 |
| 62.2 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 68.1 | 5 |
| 61.6 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.6 | 26 |
| 44.6% | 7 | Rush% | 34.7% | 28 |
| 55.4% | 26 | Pass% | 65.3% | 5 |
| 35.3% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 33.9% | 2 |
| 64.7% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 66.1% | 31 |
- Over their current four game winning streak, the Steelers rank first in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed (5.2 yards) and sixth in yards per carry allowed (3.8 yards).
- They ranked 26th in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.6 yards) and 20th in yards per carry allowed (4.3 yards) prior.
- James Conner has the most fantasy points (208.5) through eight games in the Steelers franchise history.
- Conner is the first Steelers player to have 100-yards rushing with any touchdown in four straight games since Franco Harris in 1972.
- 27.8 percent of the yardage gained by the Panthers on the road this season has come from rushing (18th) as opposed to 45.7 percent at home (second). That is the largest home and away split in the league.
- Christian McCaffrey has rushed 23 times for 86 yards (3.7 YPC) in three games on the road this season as opposed to 86 times for 416 yards (4.8 YPC) in five games at home.
- McCaffrey has played 96.5 percent (500-of-518) of the Carolina offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league.
Trust (spike starting production)
- James Conner: He’s developing that elite baseline of yards from scrimmage per game that made Le’Veon Bell bulletproof while he’s getting far more scoring opportunities than Bell ever had. Conner is averaging 172.3 yards from scrimmage per game over his past four games and while Carolina has only allowed 233 total yards to running backs over the past three weeks, they have hardly been pressed by the Eagles, Ravens and Buccaneers backfields.
- Antonio Brown: He’s living a touch off finding the end zone in six straight games as he’s averaging 5.5 receptions per game over that streak, but 5.5 catches per game only feels low compared to the high bar he’s set for his career. Carolina has been more vulnerable on the interior through the air but have allowed big weeks to Alshon Jeffery (7-88-1) and Odell Beckham (8-131-1) over the past month on the outside.
- Ben Roethlisberger: He’s been a top-5 scorer in six of his past eight prime time games at home and has seen the least amount of heat in the NFL, being pressured on just 23.4 percent of his dropbacks. The Panthers have allowed multiple touchdown passes in seven games this season, tied with Oakland, Tampa Bay and San Francisco for the most in the league.
- Cam Newton: Playing the best football of his career from a consistent efficiency standpoint, Newton has multiple touchdown passes in seven straight games for the first time in his career. He’s been a top-10 scorer in six of those games. Pittsburgh has gotten on track defensively but have only faced one QB1 over that stretch (Matt Ryan) and Newton’s rushing ability will be an added element against the blitz-heavy Steelers Defense.
- Greg Olsen: He’s been the TE6 and TE5 the past two weeks while catching all 10 of his targets for 132 yards. He’s also scored in three straight games. The Steelers have been a fantasy-friendly target for tight end play, surrendering five TE1 scoring weeks and ranking 31st in receptions allowed per game (6.6) to the position.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Christian McCaffrey: He has one of the highest floors in the league due to never coming off the field and now he’s found the end zone four times over his past two games after scoring once through six weeks. McCaffrey has had funky road splits on the ground while the most yards from the scrimmage the Steelers have allowed in a game to a running back is 84 yards to Joe Mixon in Week 6.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: He’s hit 100-yards in just one of his past five games after doing so in each of his first four games to open the season. The Carolina defense is 26th in fantasy production in the league to wideouts from the slot per game this season, but was also just hammered by Adam Humphries for 8-82-2 a week ago to keep the doors open for a potentially strong game.
Bust (underperformance)
- Devin Funchess: We are back into touchdown-or-bust mode with Funchess now that the Panthers have incorporated more options into their usage tree. Funchess has just eight targets over the past two weeks and hasn’t reached 80-yards receiving in a game this season.
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)
- Vance McDonald: He just hasn’t established himself as a weekly option as he’s had just two top-12 weeks through seven games. He hasn’t even sniffed mid-TE2 status for the most part, finishing as the TE19 or lower in five of those games. But in a game where we’re interested in Ben, we’re nibbling at a shallow position. McDonald still ran 32 routes last week compared to 15 for Jesse James. The Panthers have allowed seven top-12 scoring tight ends since Week 1 while allowing a league-high 6.9 receptions per game and a league-high seven touchdowns to the position.
- D.J. Moore: He’s still only a swing when the matchups line up until his usage becomes consistent. The two targets versus a Buccaneers Defense isn’t going to earn us much trust, but he still had his playing time stay on the rise as he was on the field for 85.5 percent of the offensive snaps. He also does have a rushing attempt in 6-of-8 games for teams in a bind.
Washington @ Buccaneers
| Washington | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 24.5 | Implied Total | 27.0 | ||
| 20.0 | 25 | Points/Gm | 28.6 | 7 |
| 21.5 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 34.4 | 32 |
| 64.4 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 68.5 | 4 |
| 61.5 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.9 | 15 |
| 43.7% | 11 | Rush% | 34.9% | 27 |
| 56.3% | 22 | Pass% | 65.2% | 6 |
| 34.6% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 38.6% | 12 |
| 65.5% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 61.4% | 21 |
- Tampa Bay is first in the league in non-passing fantasy points generated per game on offense (94.4) and last in the league in those points allowed per game (95.3).
- The average Buccaneers game at home features 51.3 total points scored (12th) as opposed to 70.0 combined points per game on the road, the most in the league.
- The Buccaneers have the worst turnover differential in the league (-15), matching their worst differential in franchise history through eight games set in 1988.
- Buccaneers wide receivers lead the league with 272 receiving yards per game as a unit. Washington wide receivers rank last with 106 yards per game.
Trust (spike starting production)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: There’s some concern here that Washington won’t be able to do their part offensively like all the Bucs opponents have, but the body of work for QB Bucs has been too strong to ignore. In all six games their quarterback has finished a game, he’s been a top-10 scorer and Washington has allowed a top-12 scorer or a 300-yard passer in each of their past six games.
- O.J. Howard: Howard has an overall volume issue that hasn’t popped his fantasy bubble yet as he’s averaging just 5.3 targets per game in his full games, but he still has at least 50-yards receiving in all of those seven full games since he has splash-play upside. He leads all tight ends with 35 percent of his targets coming on targets 15-yards or further downfield and his 11.8 yards per target leads all tight ends with 25 or more targets on the season.
- Mike Evans: After catching 27-of-37 targets from Fitzpatrick prior to last week, Evans and Fitz were able to connect on just 1-of-10 looks with just two of those deemed as catchable targets. That’s a reminder that Evans is still prone to floor play due to quarterback performance, but his volume isn’t going anywhere. Washington has been smashed by lead receivers of late, allowing Julio Jones (7-121-1), Odell Beckham (8-136-0) and Devin Funchess (5-74-1) to post big lines in three of their past four games surrounding a matchup versus the Cowboys over that span.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- DeSean Jackson: He has just 11 catches on 26 targets over his past four games after catching 17-of-22 looks to begin the season. For the type of targets he receives, that early efficiency was never going to stick, but Washington isn’t a bad team to chase an all-or-nothing option against. Washington has allowed eight touchdown receptions of 20 or more yards on the season, tied for the second-most in the league.
- Alex Smith: The Buccaneers Defense has yet to fail us thus far, but Smith has not shown the requisite ceiling to fully trust on matchup alone. And now his offensive line is ravaged by injuries. There’s room for Smith to provide a solid stopgap as a streamer, but his highest week on the ceiling is just QB11 and has thrown one or fewer touchdowns in 6-of-8 games on the season.
- Jordan Reed: He’s been the Alex Smith of tight ends this season. Reed has been the average TE17 per week this season and is averaging just 4.1 receptions for 42.5 yards per game. Washington keeps losing bodies offensively all over and he’s the one oddly still standing, while running into as good of a matchup as he’ll have all season. The Buccaneers have allowed a TE1 in every game but one this season and are allowing league-high 77.3 yards per game to the position.
- Adrian Peterson: We never took the bait on Peterson last week because you’re always forced to nail game script with him. In the three Washington losses, Peterson has been the RB38, RB44 and the RB37, averaging just 10.7 touches per game in those weeks as opposed to 23.2 touches per game in their five wins. That said, he’s still a player that you’re always going to consider as an RB2 in this fantasy climate. Tampa Bay has allowed seven rushing touchdowns to backs over the past four weeks and are allowing a rushing touchdown once every 14.3 carries to opposing running backs, the worst rate in the league.
Bust (underperformance)
- Chris Godwin: He’s just too far behind the other option here as he’s averaging just 3.8 catches per game and has cleared 60 yards in a game just once. All you can do is hope for a touchdown.
- Peyton Barber: His only positive games are when he’s fallen into the end zone and now he’s losing passing opportunities with Jacquizz Rodgers running 40 pass routes to Barber’s 34 over the past two weeks.
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)
- Adam Humphries: I owe Humphries a formal apology because I just didn’t believe he’d stick as a viable fantasy commodity given the wealth of riches Tampa Bay has in the passing game and the change back to Fitzpatrick at quarterback. But he has been getting fed opportunity that is tough to ignore. Since the Bucs Week 5 bye, Humphries is third for all wide receivers in route run (41.3 per game) and is tied for 11th in targets (31) and receptions (22) over that span. There’s still a limited ceiling when he fails to score a touchdown, but he’s just been on the field far more than either Jackson or Godwin by a significant amount in a passing offense that is providing a viable base of fantasy production.
- Josh Doctson: He has at least six targets four of his past six games and leads the team in air yards over the past three weeks by a substantial amount. He runs into a Tampa Bay secondary that has allowed the most receptions per game (7.6) to opposing lead wideouts, but Doctson is not a typical lead option and has yet to produce more than 49 yards in any game this season.
- Maurice Harris: He has eight and 12 targets in his two starts this season and turned 12 targets into 10 catches against an Atlanta team that has struggled inside all season. If Jamison Crowder is still inactive, Harris is set up with another potential high-volume spot against a defense that is 30th in receptions allowed to opposing receivers.
- Kapri Bibbs: Chris Thompson can’t be counted on at this stage and if he’s out once again, Bibbs will float around the bottom of the FLEX pool once again for those in dire straits. Bibbs has been the RB15 and the RB23 over the past two games with Thompson inactive, but that is largely on the strength of scoring in each game as he has totaled just 10 touches for 91 yards in those games.
Cardinals @ Chiefs
| Arizona | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | Spread | -16.5 | ||
| 16.8 | Implied Total | 33.5 | ||
| 13.8 | 31 | Points/Gm | 36.3 | 1 |
| 24.9 | 18 | Points All./Gm | 25.1 | 20 |
| 54.0 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 25 |
| 69.1 | 30 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 69.0 | 29 |
| 37.3% | 21 | Rush% | 40.5% | 16 |
| 62.7% | 12 | Pass% | 59.5% | 17 |
| 48.5% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 34.6% | 5 |
| 51.5% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 65.4% | 28 |
- The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in five consecutive games, matching a franchise record set in 2004.
- Kansas City is the only team that averages at least four offensive touchdowns per game at home (4.0) and on the road (4.4) this season.
- Patrick Mahomes is the fifth quarterback ever to thrown for 300-yards or more in eight straight games. Drew Brees (twice) holds the record with nine consecutive 300-yard passing games.
- Mahomes is the also just the fifth quarterback ever to pass for 300-yards and three or more touchdowns in four straight games, one behind the record of five set by Steve Young in 1998.
- 57.1 percent (12-of-21) of the offensive touchdowns allowed by the Cardinals have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- Kareem Hunt‘s 24 touchdowns are the most ever by any Chiefs player over the first 25 games of a player’s career.
- Arizona has scored on just 17.4 percent of their possessions, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Cardinals have scored on 14.3 percent (5-of-35) of their drives on the road, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust (spike starting production)
- Patrick Mahomes: We’re almost to the point where we’re starting to take him for granted to a degree since he plays a position with so many available options each week. Mahomes has now hit as a top-6 scorer in four straight games and has set a new career-high in passing yardage in three of his past four games. Arizona is tied in allowing a league-low nine touchdown passes on the season because teams are running the ball at will on them, but Mahomes and the Chiefs Offense are the unit that has dictated matchups.
- Kareem Hunt: He’s averaging 137 yards from scrimmage over the past six weeks with 10 touchdowns over that span. Arizona is facing 33.9 touches per game to opposing backfields, the most in the league and are allowing 175.5 total yards per game to backfields, 30th in the league and 20.7 rushing points per game to the position, the most in the league.
- Travis Kelce: He’s been the TE4 or higher in six of his past seven games and leads the position with 82.3 yards per game. To tack on, he’s on pace to smash his career-high of eight touchdowns scored as he already has six on the season.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Tyreek Hill: Arizona has consistently been good on the boundary and bludgeoned on the interior in the passing game. Hill is always a play away from hitting and Arizona allowed a 55-yard catch and run touchdown to speedster Marquise Goodwin in their last game. But Hill also has wonky home/road splits as he’s averaging just 62.5 yards per game receiving at home this season as opposed to 104.8 per game on the road.
- Sammy Watkins: He’s running 37.9 percent of his routes in the slot, which gives him more opportunity to hit a play against the soft Arizona interior defense and we’re just not fading any part of this concentrate offense. 65.9 percent of the Kansas City targets go to either Kelce, Hill or Watkins, which is why Watkins has been a WR3 or better in six of his eight full games this season. If Watkins is unable to play do to an ankle injury, Chris Conley will be in play as a volatile WR4 option.
- David Johnson: He’s a massive road dog but has averaged 20.4 touches per game in Rosen’s five starts with a low of 17. That many touches versus a Chiefs Defense is something we’re always interested in as the Chiefs are allowing a league-high 178.8 yards from scrimmage to opposing backfields.
- Larry Fitzgerald: Over his early-season hamstring injury, Fitz has tallied 25.5 percent of the team targets over his past three games and has scored in each of the past two. The Chiefs have been much stouter versus the pass and has limited slot receivers Jarvis Landry (6-50), Emmanuel Sanders (4-57), Tyler Boyd (3-27) over the past three weeks, but it’s hard to leave Fitzgerald out of the top-30 options this week given his volume and the Cardinals point-chasing here.
Bust (underperformance)
- Josh Rosen: He’s had one game higher than QB23 with a high-scoring week of QB14. The Chiefs have been a much better pass defense at home, allowing six touchdowns to six interceptions in Arrowhead.
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)
- Christian Kirk: He has been the average WR38 in Rosen’s five starts with 12.2 points per game but is still only a fringe option, averaging just 5.8 targets per game over that span.
- Spencer Ware: Nailing game script to go completely in a lopsided direction is always thin ice, so Ware is only on the table for the most desperate to plug a hole this week. He’s had 89 and 81 total yards in two of his past three games and we’ve got a huge home favorite here that has been battered by the run and game script as stated when discussing Hunt above.
Bills @ Jets
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | NY Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 14.8 | Implied Total | 22.3 | ||
| 10.7 | 32 | Points/Gm | 22.0 | 22 |
| 26.8 | 26 | Points All./Gm | 23.7 | 17 |
| 62.3 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 61.2 | 26 |
| 61.8 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.2 | 27 |
| 42.3% | 15 | Rush% | 43.7% | 10 |
| 57.8% | 18 | Pass% | 56.3% | 23 |
| 42.1% | 22 | Opp. Rush % | 39.9% | 16 |
| 57.9% | 11 | Opp. Pass % | 60.1% | 17 |
- The Jets rank 28th in yards per play offensively (5.1) while the Bills rank 32nd (4.0).
- The eight touchdowns by the Bills are their fewest through nine games in franchise history.
- The three passing touchdowns by the Bills are the fewest through nine games of a season since the 2009 Browns (three) and 2009 Raiders (two).
- Nathan Peterman averages just 6.8 yards per completion, the fewest in the league. League average is 11.6 yards per completion while both Derek Anderson and Josh Allen are at 11.1 yards per completion on the season.
- Peterman’s 4.2 yards per pass attempt are the fourth-fewest for a quarterback in NFL history through eight games played (minimum of 100 pass attempts).
- 52.8 percent (56-of-106) of the Bills possessions have come with them trailing by double-digit points, the highest rate in the league.
- The Jets have averaged just 248.3 total yards per game over the past three weeks, the fewest in the league.
- After rushing for 323 yards in their Week 5 game against the Broncos, the Jets have rushed for 308 yards total over their four games since.
- The Jets have run 16 plays inside of the opponent’s 10-yard line this season, the fewest in the league.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Isaiah Crowell: Where will Crowell’s 200-yard rushing game in Week 5 rank at the end of the season in most random events from the 2018 season? He’s carried 50 times for 143 yards over the past four games since that game. He still led the backfield with 14 touches last week and is a home favorite here, so the FLEX lights are still on despite those lackluster results. This game is Slappers only, but the Bills have allowed a rushing touchdown in three straight games.
Bust (underperformance)
- Josh McCown: Filling in for Sam Darnold, McCown threw for 187 and 140 yards in two games versus the Bills a year ago, while the Bills pass defense has actually shown up this season in terrible circumstances. Buffalo has allowed just one top-12 scorer over their past six games and just held Tom Brady to QB20 and Mitchell Trubisky to QB19 over the past two weeks.
- Elijah McGuire: He has an inside track on the “Bilal Powell role” as he out-snapped Crowell 36-23 last week but was out-touched by Crowell 14-10. There’s squeeze for him to be a FLEX option, but there’s low upside here in a game with the Jets favored and Crowell still in line to get scoring opportunities.
- Nathan Peterman: I have to mention every quarterback in some capacity here. Objective complete.
- LeSean McCoy: On the line here as he’s still worth a look as an RB3 or “break glass” RB2 for those vacant at the running back position. He has at least 14 touches or more in each of his past four complete games played, but he has rushed 22 times for 23 yards the past two weeks. He’s now been an RB2 or better just twice on the season but has been an RB3 or better in 6-of-7 complete games. There’s just no ceiling here with Peterman playing as McCoy has 22 touches for 50 yards in Peterman’s two starts this season.
- All WRs: The Jets haven’t had a wideout finish higher than WR46 over the past three weeks and out of their five WR3 or better games, only Quincy Enunwa has done it twice. He had just four targets in his first game back. Buffalo has had a high WR finish of WR36 on the season. Robby Anderson had rapport with McCown last season over a six-game stretch, but will draw the worst matchup on the outside. In two games versus Buffalo with McCown a year ago, Anderson caught eight total passes for 70 yards, but did find the end zone once.
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)
- Chris Herndon: He has double-digit points in three of his past four games and continues to see more passing game opportunity as he is coming off a season-high 26 routes run a week ago. Game script may not force the Jets to chase points like they have the past three weeks, but Herndon is a high-end TE2 this week for those in need of filling the position while the Bills have allowed a short-passing score to an opposing tight end in two of their past three games.
Jaguars @ Colts
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 22.0 | Implied Total | 25.0 | ||
| 16.8 | 30 | Points/Gm | 28.9 | 6 |
| 21.2 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 26.6 | 25 |
| 65.1 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 69.2 | 3 |
| 62.2 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.9 | 23 |
| 34.4% | 29 | Rush% | 36.3% | 23 |
| 65.6% | 4 | Pass% | 63.7% | 10 |
| 46.8% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 40.9% | 21 |
| 53.2% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 59.2% | 12 |
- The Colts (85.2 percent) and Jaguars (84.6 percent) are the two teams with the highest rate of passing touchdowns in the league. League average is 67.8 percent of offensive touchdowns via passing.
- 40.2 percent of the Indianapolis possessions reach the red zone, fourth in the league behind the Rams (47.3 percent), Chiefs (46.6 percent) and Saints (42.9 percent).
- Colts running backs average 2.2 yards before contact on their rushing attempts, the most in the league.
- Andrew Luck hasn’t been sacked in 156 consecutive dropbacks, the longest streak of his career.
- The Jaguars have been outscored by an average of 14.7 points per game on the road this season, ahead of only Buffalo (16.8) on the season.
- The Jaguars are 30th in points per play offensively (.257) ahead of only Arizona (.255) and Buffalo (.171). They ranked eighth in 2017 (.388).
- The Jaguars have had just two drives start on the opposition’s side of the field, tied with Tampa Bay for the fewest in the league. Through eight games last season, they had 12 such possessions, tied for fourth in the league.
- The Colts are allowing opposing passers to complete 72.4 percent of their passes (31st) but rank first in the league in allowing gains of 20 or more yards on completed passes (11.1 percent).
- Blake Bortles has completed 11-of-28 (39.3 percent) passes in the red zone this season, better than only Josh Allen (30 percent) on the season. League average is 55.9 percent.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Andrew Luck: For all the regression the Jaguars Defense has had compared to a year ago, they are still very good, ranking second in the league in yards per pass attempt (6.7 Y/A). But they just have been beatable of late, allowing 283 yards and three touchdowns to Carson Wentz in their last game, a QB2 game to Dak Prescott in Week 6 and 313 yards to Patrick Mahomes in Week 5. Luck has been so hot, finishing as a top-10 scorer in five straight games and is at home, giving him back-end QB1 viability.
- Marlon Mack: We’re sure to have another week where he doesn’t practice fully and then he plays. And when he’s played, he’s ripped up the field. Over his past three games, Mack has carried 56 times for 347 yards (6.2 YPC) with four total touchdowns. This matchup is not nearly as strong as the previous two he’s had as the Jaguars are allowing just 3.9 YPC to opposing backs (ninth), but Mack’s upside in a good offense keep him squarely on the RB2 board at home as a favorite.
- Jack Doyle: He returned to the lineup as reclaimed his role as the all-purpose tight end in this offense right away. In the three games that Doyle has now been active, he’s out-snapped Ebron 193-71 and run 101 pass routes to 44 for Ebron.
- Blake Bortles: As poor of a season he’s had in reality, for fantasy he’s been a QB1 in three of his past five games. The Colts allow a ton of easy completions that allow production to mount as they’re 23rd in passing yardage allowed to quarterbacks (275.6 yards per game). Over their previous four games, Indianapolis has allowed a QB3 performance to Derek Carr and the highest-scoring game of the season by Sam Darnold (18 points) to go along with 27.5 points to Tom Brady surrounding a game against the Bills.
- Dede Westbrook: The Jaguars wideouts are always a tough assignment to predict but given Westbrook’s high slot use (93 percent of his routes) while leading the team in third-down targets, catches and yards, he is the option that stands out against a Colts Defense that lives in zone coverage and will allow a bunch of underneath completions. The Colts don’t give up plays, which makes options such as Donte Moncrief and D.J. Chark only deeper plays.
Bust (underperformance)
- T.Y. Hilton: He has just five catches for 59 yards over his past two games and the Jaguars are still not a team we target heavily with boundary receiver play, but Hilton has run 45 percent of his routes from the slot over his two games since returning. The Jaguars have allowed just five touchdowns to opposing receivers this season, but four of those have come from the slot. I don’t believe you can count on Hilton for ceiling output or even as a stable WR2 which is why he’s here, but still does carry some scoring upside in a tough assignment.
- Leonard Fournette: Not many of us with Fournette will be in a position to bench him and wait and see what his usage will be like, but he has to be treated as an RB2. He’s yet to play a complete game all season, is a road dog and the Jaguars have Carlos Hyde on board to ease him back into a full workload. The matchup is strong as the Colts are 23rd in rushing yardage allowed per game (94.9) to backfields, but you may be looking at an abbreviated workload and hoping for a touchdown in Fournette’s first game back. His return also makes Hyde and T.J. Yeldon bottom-rung fantasy options outside of chasing negative game script with Yeldon. if that negative script does occur, the Colts are 31st in receptions allowed to backfields (7.5 per game), but Yeldon’s snap totals remain a guessing game heading into this week.
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)
- Eric Ebron: Even with Doyle returning, Ebron still holds some upside, he’s just much more volatile. Some of his depressed usage in Week 8 likely had to do with getting him some rest prior to the bye as he was dealing with multiple ailments over the front half of the season. Even though Doyle has trumped Ebron’s usage when both are active, Ebron has still scored a touchdown in all of three of those games as well. Colts tight ends have been targeted 21 times in the red zone, the most in the league.
Lions @ Bears
| Detroit | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 19.3 | Implied Total | 25.8 | ||
| 22.5 | 20 | Points/Gm | 29.4 | 5 |
| 26.2 | 23 | Points All./Gm | 19.1 | 4 |
| 63.0 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 63.5 | 17 |
| 58.5 | 2 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 17 |
| 36.9% | 22 | Rush% | 45.5% | 5 |
| 63.1% | 11 | Pass% | 54.5% | 28 |
| 47.4% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 36.8% | 10 |
| 52.6% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 63.2% | 23 |
- Just 15.8 percent (15-of-95) of the opposition’s possessions have ended inside of the red zone versus the Bears, the lowest rate in the league. League average outside of the, is 28.6 percent.
- Opposing teams are running just 5.6 red zone plays per game against the Bears, the fewest in the league.
- The Bears have yet to allow a rushing touchdown to a running back on 160 carries.
- The Bears have forced a turnover on 22.1 percent of opponent’s possessions, the highest rate in the league.
- The Lions have allowed a first down on 42.5 percent of their pass attempts faced (31st) while the Bears have allowed just 30.5 percent, the second-lowest rate in the league.
- Detroit has allowed opposing passers to complete 77.1 percent of their passes since their Week 6 bye, the highest rate in the league after allowing 63.8 percent to be completed through five weeks (12th).
- Jordan Howard has 30.1 percent of the Chicago offensive opportunities when the Bears or tied or leading as opposed to 24.5 percent when trailing.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Jordan Howard: He’s scored in four of his past five games and in three straight but has still managed to average just 65.2 total yards per game over that stretch as he needs to reach the end zone to carry his RB2 upside. However, he finds himself in another great spot to stack volume and scoring opportunities as a home favorite against a Lions Defense allowing a league-high 134.9 yards rushing per game to backfields.
- Marvin Jones: He has 18 targets over the past two weeks and received 22.2 percent of the team looks with Golden Tate absent on his way to an WR22 finish in dire circumstances for this offense. There may inevitably be some tradeoff between he and Golladay, but Jones is a WR2 option.
Bust (underperformance)
- Mitchell Trubisky: He’s putting us in a tough spot here for streaming as the matchup isn’t poor from an efficiency stance, but Detroit faces the fewest pass attempts per game (27.8) and the Bears have really kept their passing game low-volume in wins. In their five wins this season, the Trubisky has thrown for 220 yards or fewer in four of those games and has thrown just 29 and 20 passes over the past two weeks in tightly controlled game script. This game lines up to be the same, meaning he will need to live on touchdown efficiency and will need his rushing production to bounce back after just six yards on the ground a week ago.
- Matthew Stafford: He’s been a QB1 just once on the season and is averaging his lowest yardage per game (263.9) since the 2010 season. The Lions Offense looked dysfunctional on the road last week in their first game without Golden Tate and they go on the road to face another strong defense here.
- Tarik Cohen: He has just six and seven touches over the past two weeks in Bears wins with just five total targets in the passing game. He now has eight or fewer touches in four of the five wins this season. He’s still in play as a FLEX option and offers big-play ability but nailing the game script is going to be hard week-to-week and this week the probability points towards him having to make the most of single-digit touches once again. There are just more bettable passing-only backs on the board this week.
- Trey Burton: Consistent usage is still a problem as he’s had five or fewer targets in 6-of-8 games this season and has topped four receptions in a game just once. He does have five touchdowns, which keeps him in play at a depressed tight end position, but the Lions also have allowed just one tight end to have more than four catches in a game this season.
- Bears WRs: The Lions allow a league-low 9.5 receptions per game to opposing wideouts since everyone just runs down their throat all game. The Bears are set up to be a sum of all parts passing attack this week, with no clear option to force into lineups outside of Burton because he plays such a weak position.
- Kenny Golladay: There was absolutely no tangible target bump for Golladay last week as he now has just seven total targets over his past three games. Until we see usage begin to rise, we can’t chase him in lineups, especially in a tougher matchup against the Chicago defense.
- Kerryon Johnson: He’s had 20 carries for 59 yards over the past two weeks and is facing the league’s toughest fantasy run defense on the season for opposing backfield play. He did still see five targets with Riddick returning to the lineup, but this is not a spot where we can count on yardage alone to provide a solid RB2 week.
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)
- Theo Riddick: He lined up in the slot as a direct replacement for Golden Tate on 13 routes last week and caught 7-of-8 targets. The hang-up with Riddick is he a reception only option as he is averaging a lowly 5.8 yards per catch on the season.
Saints @ Bengals
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | Spread | 4 | ||
| 29.0 | Implied Total | 25.0 | ||
| 34.9 | 2 | Points/Gm | 27.6 | 10 |
| 27.2 | 27 | Points All./Gm | 29.6 | 30 |
| 65.0 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 60.1 | 27 |
| 61.4 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 71.2 | 31 |
| 44.0% | 9 | Rush% | 35.1% | 26 |
| 56.0% | 24 | Pass% | 64.9% | 7 |
| 36.7% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 36.5% | 8 |
| 63.3% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 63.5% | 25 |
- The Bengals are allowing the second-most non-passing fantasy points per game (93.4) outside of Tampa Bay. New Orleans ranks third in the league in that category on offense (92 points per game).
- The Saints have punted on just 24.7 percent of their possessions, the lowest rate in the league. Opposing teams have punted just 25.6 percent of their drives versus the Bengals, the lowest rate in the league.
- 23.1 percent of the offensive plays run by the Saints have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 13.1 percent.
- 46.7 percent of Drew Brees’ fantasy output has come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate for any quarterback in the league.
- Alvin Kamara has out-touched Mark Ingram 62-40 since the Saints Week 5 bye. He has out-touched him 42-28 in the opening three quarters of those games while out-touching him 15-4 in the red zone.
- Brees has thrown for 347.8 yards per game at home this season as opposed to 236.3 per game on the road, the largest gap for all quarterbacks in home and away yardage.
- Despite that, the Saints have scored on 64.9 percent of their possessions on the road this season, the highest rate in the league.
- Andy Dalton has been a top-12 quarterback in just 4-of-11 career games without A.J. Green active, throwing 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions over those games with an average scoring week of QB17.
Trust (spike starting production)
- Alvin Kamara: 87.9 percent of the rushing attempts against the Bengals have gained positive yardage, the highest rate in the league while Kamara leads the league in red zone targets (20) and receptions (15) and ranks second in red zone rushing attempts (31) to Todd Gurley (50).
- Drew Brees: We have a spot with Brees on the road and outdoors, but the Bengals have just been too awful defensively to ignore. The Bengals rank 29th in passing points allowed per game (19.7) and the only games in which they allowed fewer than 319 yards passing to quarterbacks where to Ryan Tannehill and Cam Newton (who still was the QB3 that week). In four of their past five games, the Bengals have allowed 470, 358, 369 and 419 passing yards outside of that game versus Tannehill.
- Michael Thomas: He’s caught an insane 70-of-79 targets this season and already has four games with double-digit receptions on the season. The Saints may be able to take their foot off the gas at some point here and run the ball to victory like we’ve seen in the past, but the Bengals have allowed a WR1 scoring week to the opposition’s lead receiver in four of their past five games.
- Tyler Boyd: With A.J. Green’s injury, Boyd becomes the lead receiver in this offense. When Green last left a game in Week 3, Boyd had six catches for 132 yards and a touchdown. Green leaves 9.5 targets per game on the table and we can’t count on anyone behind Boyd to use that volume effectively. Boyd also has the benefit of playing inside, where the Saints have been touched up by Cooper Kupp (5-89-1) and Adam Thielen (7-103-1) over the past two weeks.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Joe Mixon: His 20.7 touches per game rank fifth at the position, but his lack of receiving usage and matchup here are slight downgrades. Mixon has just 13 catches for 58 yards over the past four games after posting 54 yards through the air in Week 1 and now Giovani Bernard is slated to return. The Saints also allow just 95 total yards per game to opposing backfields, which is second in the league and just held Todd Gurley to 79 yards from scrimmage.
Bust (underperformance)
- Andy Dalton: He’s only been a QB1 in 3-of-8 games so far and now will be without A.J. Green, which has led to a downturn in his fantasy production in the past.
- Mark Ingram: He’s averaged 14.5 touches for 60.8 yards per game since returning. There’s room here for him to get volume if the Saints control script, but he’s an option that now has failed to reach 100 yards from scrimmage in eight consecutive games played and is working way behind Kamara in the red zone.
- C.J. Uzomah: He’s dealing with a shoulder injury and has two or fewer catches in three of the four games since taking over as the primary tight end in the offense.
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)
- Tre’Quan Smith: We typically want to target his role when the Saints are at home in a shootout environment, but the Bengals leave some allure here outside of the past two road games he played against the Vikings and Ravens. Cincinnati has allowed five receptions of 40-plus yards to wideouts over their past three games.
- John Ross: Green’s targets have to go somewhere other than to Boyd and Ross will be the next receiver on the field as much as him. He’s far from a reliable option, but the matchup could be worse to take a swing on Ross hitting a splash play as the Saints rank dead last in yards per target to opposing receivers (10.6 yards) and rank 28th in touchdown rate (8.3 percent) allowed per target to the position.
- Ben Watson: He keeps trading TE1 games with unusable weeks, but this week he may be able to string a pair of usable weeks together against a Bengals Defense allowing 6.6 receptions per game (T-31st) to opposing tight ends.
Patriots @ Titans
| New England | Rank | @ | Tennessee | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | Spread | 7 | ||
| 27.5 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 30.0 | 4 | Points/Gm | 16.8 | 29 |
| 22.4 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 17.6 | 1 |
| 66.9 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 60.0 | 28 |
| 66.4 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.0 | 5 |
| 42.9% | 13 | Rush% | 47.5% | 2 |
| 57.1% | 20 | Pass% | 52.5% | 31 |
| 36.1% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 42.8% | 23 |
| 63.9% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 57.2% | 10 |
- New England averages 1.8 offensive touchdowns per game on the road (25th) as opposed to 4.2 per game at home (second).
- Tennessee is allowing 1.8 offensive touchdowns per game, the fewest in the league.
- Opposing wide receivers have accounted for 61.2 percent of the fantasy points scored by skill players against the Titans, which trails only the Saints (63.9 percent).
- Receivers have accounted for a league-high 84.6 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Titans.
- Over their past two games, Dion Lewis has out-snapped Derrick Henry 104-38, out-touched him 42-22 and out-gained him 277-97.
- 23.9 percent of the pass attempts against the Patriots are on throws 15-yards or further downfield, the highest rate a defense has faced this season.
- The Patriots are holding passers to a 35.2 percent (31-of-88) completion rate on those throws, the second-best rate in the league (Dallas at 33.3 percent).
Trust (spike starting production)
- Tom Brady: He has been in the back-half of scoring in each of the past two games, but he’s still thrown for 294 and 324 yards those weeks. The Patriots just have four rushing touchdowns to one passing score in those games. The Titans have only allowed 11 passing touchdowns on the season, but 11-of-13 touchdowns they’ve allowed have been passing while they have allowed 20 or more points to all three of the good quarterbacks they have faced on the season in Philip Rivers (20.1), Carson Wentz (20.7) and Deshaun Watson (22.8).
- Josh Gordon: He’s gone up and down over the past month with two 100-yard games surrounding games of 42 yards each, but everything lines up nicely for him here. He’s already established himself as the vertical threat in this offense while Tennessee has been the most vulnerable to wide receiver play when they give up offensive production. Gordon will also draw Malcolm Butler for the majority of the game. Butler has allowed a league-high 618 receiving yards and a league-high seven touchdowns in his coverage this season.
- Julian Edelman: He’s been a WR1 in each of the past two weeks without the aid of a touchdown in either. The Patriots really attacked Logan Ryan in this matchup a year ago in the playoffs when Danny Amendola caught 11-of-13 targets for 112 yards.
- James White: He’s been a top-7 scorer in five of the past six games and leads the position in targets (81), catches (61) and receiving touchdowns (six). With Michel injured, he has 19, 18 and 18 touches over the past three weeks. Michel’s return compromises his touch-ceiling, but White is still the best bet to lead this backfield in touches in Week 10.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Dion Lewis: He’s had 155 and 122 yards from scrimmage the past two games as the Titans are hopefully realizing that he is arguably their best offensive player. The Patriots rank 28th in receiving points allowed per game to backs (14.3) and have allowed five or more receptions to an individual back in four of their past five games.
- Marcus Mariota: He appears to be turning the corner slowly. Over his past two games, Mariota has completed 73.7 percent of his passes for 7.8 yards per attempt after completing 63.5 percent of his passes for 6.7 yards per attempt prior. He’s already averaging 4.8 rushing points per game, so any efficiency passing will help him become a reliable QB2 option once again, we just need this sample to extend itself. The Patriots have allowed a QB1 in four of their past five games with the lone exception being Derek Anderson.
Bust (underperformance)
- Rob Gronkowski: With the Patriots headed on bye next week, I’m approaching things as if they will just hold Gronk out for another game this early in the week and then will cycle back as more information comes out during the week.
- Corey Davis: His 6-56 line last week was his best game since Week 4. He did have five catches for 63 yards and two touchdowns against New England last year, but unfortunately both of those touchdowns came in the coverage of Butler, who is now his teammate. Surely to get shadowed by Stephon Gilmore this week, it’s hard to expect a repeat performance.
- Derrick Henry: He has scored in each of the past two games, but he’s still had just 97 total yards in those games and has been smashed by Lewis in usage, the latter coming in a game that featured positive script throughout. The Patriots are far more giving to backs in the passing game, ranking 10th in rushing points allowed per game (10.1) to the position.
- Sony Michel: Things are trending early in the week towards him returning to the lineup this week, but with the Patriots having a bye the following week, I’d assume they are going to be cautious with his use on the field. With an unknown snap/touch count, you’re leaning on a touchdown. If he is active, then the dream of acting on Cordarrelle Patterson and his new RB eligibility meets an unfortunate end.
Falcons @ Browns
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Cleveland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | Spread | 4 | ||
| 27.5 | Implied Total | 23.5 | ||
| 28.5 | 8 | Points/Gm | 21.1 | 23 |
| 28.2 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 27.4 | 28 |
| 63.9 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 70.2 | 2 |
| 65.0 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 72.2 | 32 |
| 35.4% | 25 | Rush% | 39.1% | 17 |
| 64.6% | 8 | Pass% | 60.9% | 16 |
| 34.4% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 40.8% | 20 |
| 65.6% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 59.2% | 13 |
- Atlanta has allowed the most red zone opportunities per game (4.2) while Cleveland ranks 28th (3.7).
- Opponents have scored a touchdown on 36.2 percent (17-of-47) of their drives over the current four-game losing streak for the Browns (30th) after Cleveland allowed a touchdown on just 14.7 percent (11-of-75) of their opponent’s possessions through five weeks.
- Matt Ryan has thrown for 350 passing yards in three straight games (a franchise record) and leads the league in such games with five.
- Ryan now leads the league passing yardage per possession (33.2 yards).
- Ryan has completed a league-high 75.9 percent (60-of-79) of his passes on third down and leads the league in first down rate (55.7 percent) on his third down pass attempts.
- The Browns have had the lead for just 17.8 percent of their snaps, ahead of only the Giants (12.3 percent).
- The Falcons have thrown the ball on 62.2 percent of their offensive snaps while leading, the highest rate in the league.
- The Browns have allowed the most rushing attempts to gain five or more yards (96) and 10 or more yards (49) on the season.
- The Browns have allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in six games this season, the most in the league.
- Cleveland leads the league in number of drives to end on the opposition’s side of the field (67) but have scored on just 49.3 percent (33-of-67) of those drives, 30th in the league.
Trust (spike starting production)
- Matt Ryan: His season has been nearly an overlap of his MVP 2016 season to this point in terms of raw production and he has been a QB1 in six of his past seven games. The Browns Defense has just been decimated by injuries over the past few weeks and have allowed opposing passers to throw for 8.6 yards per attempt over the past four weeks.
- Julio Jones: Did you hear he scored a touchdown a last week? I can confirm it did happen. He also leads the league in receiving yardage per game (116.6 yards) and the Browns will enter this week with both Denzel Ward and E.J. Gaines on the doubtful side of availability.
- Tevin Coleman: The explosive plays are starting to come out as he has touchdowns of 39 and 30 yards over his past two games. He’s also coming off 18 touches, his most in a game since Week 2. The Browns have been battered defensively and have been handing out multiple rushing touchdowns every week, allowing eight scores over their past four games.
- Jarvis Landry: He’s averaging just 50 yards per game in Mayfield’s starts, but we’re back to selling ourselves on volume and matchup once again aligning. Landry is still averaging 10.5 targets per game in those six games while the Falcons have been tormented by primary slot options this season, allowing tangible games to Maurice Harris (10-124-0), Sterling Shepard (5-167-0), Adam Humphries (3-82-0), JuJu Smith-Schuster (4-34-1) and Tyler Boyd (11-100-0).
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Calvin Ridley: He’s still in the “did he score this week?” bucket of receiving options as 34.1 percent of his fantasy scoring has come from touchdowns, the highest dependency among the top-45 scoring wideouts on the season. But this another good week to chase that being in play against a Cleveland secondary that will likely be down to their third and fourth options at cornerback this season and potentially could be forced to dig deeper into the chamber if Damarious Randall is out once again and that forces Briean Boddy-Calhoun to move to safety like he did last week.
- Baker Mayfield: He’s cashed in his two good matchups over the past three weeks versus Tampa Bay (QB6) and Kansas City (QB13) to give us faith in him as a viable streaming option when the time calls for it. This is one of those as Atlanta ranks 28th in passing yardage per game (318.8) and 30th in passing points allowed per game (20.0).
- Duke Johnson: We’ll need more proof that last week’s season-high 10 touches and nine targets weren’t solely circumstance, but there’s another dream matchup on the docket here for what Johnson excels at. Atlanta is allowing a league-high 8.5 receptions per game to opposing backfields.
- Nick Chubb: He has 18, 20 and 23 touches in his three starts but has posted just a modest 80, 75 and 90 yards in those games as he does all his work on the ground. Atlanta is far more vulnerable to pass catching backs -allowing just 78.8 rushing yards per game to backfields, which ranks 10th in the league- but they have allowed eight rushing touchdowns to the position, which is tied for the fifth most.
- David Njoku: After being held out of the stat sheet a week ago, Njoku only saw 11.6 percent of the team targets last week in a prime matchup that turned out to be pass heavy. After receiving 23.1 percent of the team targets over Mayfield’s first three starts, Njoku has received just 9.7 percent over the past three games. Despite that dip in use, Njoku still has cleared 50-yards receiving in five of six games with Mayfield under center. Atlanta is still vulnerable over the middle of the field due to all of their injuries and have allowed five top-12 tight ends onthe season. Washington tight ends just recently combined to catch 9-of-13 targets for 96 yards against Atlanta a week ago to keep Njoku in play as a low-level TE1 with upside.
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)
- Austin Hooper: His hot streak may be over as he has just six catches over his past two games, but he’s still in play for those in need of an option. The Browns have allowed opposing tight ends to catch 23-of-32 targets for 260 yards and two touchdowns over their three games since losing Joe Schobert to injury and also lost Christian Kirksey to a hamstring injury a week ago.
- Ito Smith: He’s needed to find the end zone to be usable as he’s averaging just 39.6 yards from scrimmage per game. The good news is that this is a game where you can chase a score given Cleveland has allowed a league-high 12 rushing touchdowns to backs and Smith also proven capable of having a nose for the end zone, scoring in four of his past five games.
- Mohamed Sanu: You can chase the matchup here because we’re all over the Falcons Offense against this battered Cleveland defense, but Sanu has recevied just nine targets over the past three games and is the average WR60 in his five games without a touchdown.
Chargers @ Raiders
| LA Chargers | Rank | @ | Oakland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.5 | Spread | 9.5 | ||
| 30.0 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 27.5 | 12 | Points/Gm | 17.6 | 28 |
| 22.5 | 13 | Points All./Gm | 31.5 | 31 |
| 57.4 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 62.0 | 24 |
| 63.6 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.2 | 4 |
| 43.6% | 12 | Rush% | 37.3% | 20 |
| 56.4% | 21 | Pass% | 62.7% | 13 |
| 40.1% | 17 | Opp. Rush % | 49.6% | 32 |
| 59.9% | 16 | Opp. Pass % | 50.4% |
- The Chargers are the only team in the league that average over a full yard (+1.35 yards) per play than their opponent this season.
- Opponents have scored on 54.3 percent of their drives versus the Raiders, the highest rate in the league.
- The Raiders are allowing 39.0 points per game at home this season, the most in the league.
- The Chargers lead the league with 12 touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone this season.
- The Raiders have allowed the most touchdowns from outside of the red zone (11) on the season.
- Melvin Gordon ranks third in rate of carries to gain five or more yards (41.1 percent) and first in rate to gain 10 or more yards (19.6 percent) for all backs with over 100 carries on the season.
- Derek Carr has already been sacked 24 times (tied for the fourth most in the league) after being sacked 20 times over all of 2017 and 16 times all of 2016.
Trust (spike starting production)
- Philip Rivers: Rivers is the only quarterback to have multiple passing touchdowns in every game this season while the Raiders are allowing a passing touchdown once every 12.4 pass attempts, the highest rate in the league.
- Melvin Gordon: His hamstring was in good shape last week as he had his second game in row with over 7.0 yards per carry on the ground. Averaging 124 total yards per game, Gordon already posted 120 yards on this Raiders Defense in Week 5 when it was “better” than it is now.
- Keenan Allen: He still didn’t find the end zone, but Allen posted season-highs in target share (38.5 percent) and receiving yardage (124). He’s also now rushed for 41 and 28 yards in two of his past three games. Allen matched a season-high of eight receptions when these teams last met in Week 5.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Jalen Richard: He leads the Raiders in targets (12), receptions (12) and yards (95) over the past two weeks while 27.6 percent of the receptions allowed by the Chargers have gone to opposing running backs, 27th in the league.
- Jared Cook: He has three weeks as a top-5 scorer and five weeks as the TE17 or lower. He has just four and three targets since the trade of Cooper and managed just four catches for 20 yards when these teams met in Week 5, but the Chargers have allowed a top-6 tight end in three of their past four games to George Kittle, David Njoku and Nick Vannett while still allowing a touchdown in the other game to a tight end.
- Tyrell Williams: He still has only had more than three receptions in one game this season and is averaging 3.8 targets per game. It’s not a bad spot to chase a deep ball as the Raiders are allowing 20-plus yard receptions at the league’s highest rate and Williams is at least running 28.4 pass routes per game. Just know that Williams’ deal with the touchdown overlords is bound to end soon enough if his volume remains the way it has all season long.
Bust (underperformance)
- Mike Williams: He has exactly one reception in four of his past five games but has managed to score in each of the past two weeks. I don’t blame anyone for chasing the spot against the Raiders keeping the touchdown streaks for either Los Angeles Williams wideouts going, but each have low floors without a score and Mike has run just 17 pass routes per game over the past three weeks.
- Derek Carr: Only Sam Darnold has a worse quarterback rating under pressure than Carr’s 44.5 rating and he’s been under pressure more than any time over the past three seasons. He’s had just two usable weeks this season, but the Chargers have allowed just one top-12 passer over their past five games while limiting Carr to a QB23 week when these teams last met.
- OAK WRs: Since the Amari Cooper trade, Brandon LaFell, Jordy Nelson and Seth Roberts have combined to catch 12-of-20 targets for 139 yards.
- Doug Martin: He’s actually played well with his opportunities, putting up 158 yards over the past two weeks, but we saw last week that he can easily be scripted out of the game and scoring opportunities remain bleak on an offense that has scored 10 or fewer points in three of their past four games.
- Austin Ekeler: He has single-digit touches now in four of the past five games that Gordon has played with a high of 10 touches. To compound matters for fantasy, he has just four receptions over those five games, making him a true backup and ancillary option than a standalone player with a true role in the offense while Gordon is healthy.
Seahawks @ Rams
| Seattle | Rank | @ | LA Rams | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spread | -10 | ||
| 20.8 | Implied Total | 30.8 | ||
| 23.5 | 17 | Points/Gm | 33.2 | 3 |
| 19.5 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 22.2 | 10 |
| 62.5 | 20 | Plays/Gm | 64.9 | 12 |
| 59.2 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.3 | 1 |
| 50.8% | 1 | Rush% | 46.6% | 3 |
| 49.2% | 32 | Pass% | 53.4% | 30 |
| 40.1% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 38.3% | 11 |
| 59.9% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 61.7% | 22 |
- The Rams allowed a season-high 190 rushing yards to the Seahawks when these teams met in Week 5. They have allowed 94.8 rushing yards per game over their eight other games this season.
- Seattle has rushed for 150 yards in five consecutive games, matching their longest streak as a franchise done two other times.
- Jared Goff ranks second in the league in yards per pass attempt off play action (11.7 Y/A) while Russell Wilson ranks third (11.4 Y/A),
- Per Pro Football Focus, Goff and the Rams have used play action a league-high 37.7 percent of the time while Wilson has used play action 24.8 percent of the time (11th).
- The Rams average 44.1 yards per possession on offense, the most in the league.
- The Rams had 41.4 yards per possession when these teams met in met in 5. Seattle allowed 28.6 yards per drive in all other games this season.
- The Rams have allowed 34 receptions of 20 or more yards (30th) and eight touchdown passes of 20 or more yards, tied for the second-most in the league.
Trust (spike starting production)
- Todd Gurley: His “worst” game of the season last week came with 19.9 points and an RB9 finish on the week. He managed 113 yards when these teams last met with three scores.
- Cooper Kupp: He returned to play 100 percent of the snaps last week and has now been a top-10 scorer in each of his past three games played, including a 6-90-1 game in just one half of action against the Seattle defense in Week 5.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Russell Wilson: His efficiency finally dropped and created more volume last week and it ended up as a wash as he posted his fourth straight game with 19-23 fantasy points. Wilson did run for a season-high 41 yards last week, which is something we’d love to see continue. The Rams have allowed at least 19 fantasy points to five of the past six quarterbacks they’ve faced, with the only exception being C.J. Beathard.
- Jared Goff: Seattle still hasn’t allowed a QB1 game on the season, but the past three tangible passers to have success throwing against the. Last week, Philip Rivers averaged 8.8 yards per attempt while Matthew Stafford posted 310 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 5 when these teams last played, Goff threw for 321 yards and 10.0 yards per attempt with both Cooks and Kupp missing the majority of the game.
- Robert Woods: One of the safest floors going, he has at least 12 points in eight straight games despite failing to reach the end zone since Week 4.
- Brandin Cooks: Coming off his first 100-yard game since Week 4, Cooks draws a Seattle defense that has struggled with solid receiving units over their past two games, allowing 9-177-2 to Charger wideouts aa week ago and 15-179-2 to the Detroit receivers the week prior.
- Mike Davis: With Chris Carson questionable at this point in this week, Davis would step into an offense that wants to feature the running game if Carson is held out. Davis tallied 107 yards on 22 touches last week with Carson leaving the game early and had 124 yards on 25 touches in Week 4 when Carson missed the game entirely.
- Doug Baldwin: He’s averaging just 3.6 catches on 4.6 targets since his return in Week 4 but has shown a little life with 91 and 77 yards receiving in two of his past three games. We know a big game is inevitably on the horizon and this spot is as good as any to chase it.
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)
- Tyler Lockett/David Moore: They finally showed their floors last week without a touchdown as they combined to catch five passes for 38 yards. Moore still led the receiving group with seven targets and multiple end zone targets. The Rams have been surrendering chunk plays through the passing game at one of the highest rates in the league, which is a specialty for this Seattle offense. In Week 5 when these teams met, Lockett had receptions of 44 and 39 yards while Moore added two touchdowns, one of which was a 30-yarder.
Dolphins @ Packers
| Miami | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spread | -9 | ||
| 19.3 | Implied Total | 28.3 | ||
| 20.8 | 24 | Points/Gm | 24.0 | 14 |
| 25.0 | 19 | Points All./Gm | 25.5 | 21 |
| 56.6 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 67.0 | 7 |
| 64.1 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.6 | 14 |
| 42.4% | 14 | Rush% | 32.8% | 31 |
| 57.6% | 19 | Pass% | 67.2% | 2 |
| 46.3% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 43.7% | 26 |
| 53.7% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 56.3% | 7 |
- Green Bay has allowed 20.5 points per game at home this season (11th) while allowing 30.5 points per game on the road (29th).
- Miami has scored on just 24.4 percent (11-of-45) of their possessions on the road, 28th in the league.
- The Dolphins average 4.6 red zone plays per game, the fewest in the league.
- The Packers have thrown the ball 69.2 percent of the time in the red zone, the highest rate in the league.
- Aaron Rodgers has completed 18-of-43 passes (41.9 percent) in the red zone this season, 31st in the league. His career red zone completion rate entering this season was 59.6 percent.
Trust (spike starting production)
- Davante Adams: He’s had one the hardest individual receiving schedules on the season and has come out positively in all. He’s faced teams with Xavier Rhodes (8-64-1), TreDavious White (8-81-0), Darius Slay (9-75-1) and Stephon Gilmore (6-40-1) over his past six games and has never had fewer than 16 points in game this season.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Aaron Rodgers: He’s been more of a floor play so far this season with his spike weeks coming solely based on jailbreak scenarios where the Packers have had make up a ton of points late in games. That’s an unlikely scenario here as huge home favorites while Miami is eighth in the league in passing points allowed per game (14.5).
- Jimmy Graham: He’s been a TE1 in four of his past five games but has just 10 targets over the past two weeks with the Packers Offense getting some bodies back. Miami has allowed five touchdowns to opposing tight ends over their past four games.
- Aaron Jones: He set a season-high for snaps again last week with 43 and had a season-high 16 touches. The Packers did go back to him after his costly fumble last week, which instills some confidence that they won’t pull the plug on his expanding use. Jones has rushed 26 times for 162 yards (6.2 YPC) over the past two weeks and the Dolphins are allowing 120 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields on the season, 30th in the league.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: With Geronimo Allison out, Valdes-Scantling takes over as the number two wideout for the Packers. He’s also been good with his opportunities, posting either 100-yards or a touchdown in four straight games.
- Kenyan Drake: Just when we thought his usage had stabilized, Miami goes and gives him seven touches last week compared to 21 for Frank Gore. Gore turned all those touches into a mountain of 59 total yards while Drake had 35 yards on his light use. This week, the Dolphins project not to have the game script to keep Gore in the game nor play at snail’s pace. In Miami’s last three losses, Drake has posted 95, 87 and 115 total yards.
Bust (underperformance)
- Brock Osweiler: He’s been a little worse in every start and has had single-digit scoring output over the past two weeks.
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)
- Danny Amendola: He’s the only Miami pass catcher you can have any expectations for. He leads the team with 24 percent of the targets with Osweiler under center and has been a WR3 or better in all four of those games. He just comes with a low ceiling as he has the most targets in the league (51) without a red zone target on the season.
Cowboys @ Eagles
| Dallas | Rank | @ | Philadelphia | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 18.8 | Implied Total | 24.8 | ||
| 19.2 | 26 | Points/Gm | 22.2 | 21 |
| 18.9 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 19.5 | 5 |
| 59.9 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 67.8 | 6 |
| 62.2 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.5 | 9 |
| 44.5% | 8 | Rush% | 38.4% | 18 |
| 55.5% | 25 | Pass% | 61.6% | 15 |
| 45.2% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 30.5% | 1 |
| 54.8% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 69.5% |
- Eight consecutive Dallas games on the road have gone under the game total with an average combined point total of 31.3 points over those games.
- Dallas averages 13.5 points per game on the road (30th) as opposed to 25 points per game at home (19th).
- On the road the Cowboys have scored a touchdown on just 5-of-45 (11.1 percent) offensive possessions, 31st in the league.
- Ezekiel Elliott is averaging 87.5 yards from scrimmage in his four road games this season as opposed to 139 total yards per game in four games at home.
- The Cowboys have a scored a touchdown on just 4-of-38 possessions (10.5 percent) against the Eagles with Dak Prescott under center.
- The Eagles are allowing a touchdown pass just once every 29.1 pass attempts, the best rate in the league.
- Since returning to the lineup in Week 3, Carson Wentz ranks sixth in the league in completion percentage at 70.7 percent. Dallas ranks 29th in completion rate allowed (69.2 percent).
- Opposing wide receivers have accounted for just 47.4 percent of the receptions against the Cowboys, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust (spike starting production)
- Carson Wentz: He’s averaged 21.7 points per game over his past five starts with 12 touchdowns and one interception. The Cowboys have allowed over 20 fantasy points to three of the past five quarterbacks they’ve faced, with the two that failed to reach that total were Alex Smith and Blake Bortles.
- Zach Ertz: There is some concern that the addition of Golden Tate will create an overlap in the types of targets that Ertz receives, but 22.5 percent of the receptions against the Cowboys have gone to tight ends, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Alshon Jeffery: He’s been a WR1 in three of five games since his return with the two duds coming against Xavier Rhodes and Jalen Ramsey. There’s also slight concern here where Jeffery’s floor lies with the addition of Tate as we figure out how this offense incorporates him, but Jeffery carries the most touchdown upside in this offense.
- Amari Cooper: He had 25 percent of the team targets in his first game with Dallas, which is the second-highest target rate he’s had in a game this season. That target share only turned into five catches for 58 yards, but it was a good start for him at least having a usable floor, which is all we want with him. The Eagles have allowed a league-high 92.4 receiving yards per game to opposing lead receivers.
- Golden Tate: It’s hard to have a true expectation level for him since Ertz has been so dominant on the interior while Jeffery has been one of the league’s best touchdown scorers, but Tate s in a better offense with netter quarterback play. He still has WR3 appeal and hopefully the Eagles look into how Tate notched eight catches for 132 yards and two scores against Dallas in Week 4.
Bust (underperformance)
- Ezekiel Elliott: You’re obviously not sitting him as he still averages 20.3 touches per game on the road, but he’s been the RB15, RB20, RB19 and RB37 on the road this season and the Eagles are allowing just 50.6 rushing yards per game to backfields, the fewest in the league.
- Dak Prescott: He’s been the QB18 or lower in every game without a rushing touchdown on the season. While he should run more here – the Eagles have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks- we can’t count on Prescott finding the end zone with his legs and the Cowboys have struggled on the road this season.
- Eagles RBs: The matchup is good as Sean Lee is once again out for Dallas but deciphering a fantasy relevant option here is a tall task. Josh Adams has carved his way into the rotation while Darren Sproles could also return this week. Either way, we’re talking about a 3-4 way timeshare. Wendell Smallwood’s touches have dropped in each of the past two games while Corey Clement had just five touches in his last game. Adams remains the most intriguing option if forced to play one guy, but this is the definition of a committee.
Giants @ 49ers
| NY Giants | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 20.3 | Implied Total | 23.3 | ||
| 18.8 | 27 | Points/Gm | 23.0 | 18 |
| 25.6 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 26.6 | 24 |
| 62.0 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 19 |
| 62.9 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 22 |
| 30.0% | 32 | Rush% | 45.0% | 6 |
| 70.0% | 1 | Pass% | 55.0% | 27 |
| 43.5% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 39.6% | 15 |
| 56.5% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 60.5% | 18 |
- The Giants have trailed for 78.3 percent of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league.
- Just 17.3 percent of the yardage gained by the Giants on the road this season has come via rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Giants have just 40 runs of five or more yards on the season, the fewest in the league. The next closest team (Arizona) has 53.
- The Giants have the largest sack differential (-21) to their opponent in the league.
- Nick Mullens was the second 49ers quarterback to throw three touchdown passes in first career start, joining Tim Rattay in 2003.
Trust (spike starting production)
- Saquon Barkley: He’s rushed for fewer than 50 yards in 5-of-8 games this season, but it hasn’t matter as he’s been used heavily as a receiver. Barkley has at least nine catches in each of his past three games and has at least 20 fantasy points in every game this season.
- Odell Beckham: He’s starting to get warm, posting 131 or more yards in three of his past four games while the 49ers have allowed big games to Larry Fitzgerald (8-102-1) and Davante Adams (10-132-2) in two of their three previous games prior to facing Oakland last week.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- George Kittle: Kittle has been a top-10 scorer in 6-of-9 game so far. He has 496 yards after the catch this season, the most for all tight ends or wide receivers in the league, which is largely independent of quarterback play.
- Eli Manning: He’s thrown for 300 yards in three of his past four games and is averaging 297.1 passing yards per game, which would be his highest total for a season since 2011. Unfortunately, the touchdowns just haven’t come along for the ride. It’s not for a lack of trying, Manning has 36 pass attempts inside of the red zone since Week 5, the most in the league. San Francisco is 26th in passing points allowed per game (18.1) and are 26th in touchdown rate (5.5 percent) allowed.
- Evan Engram: He’s cleared 25 yards in just one of five games this season with two or fewer catches in three of those games. The 49ers have been solid against opposing tight ends, ranking 12th in points per game allowed to the position, but they have also played one of the softer schedules in the league and could be without Reuben Foster and Jaquiski Tartt again.
- Sterling Shepard: He has been better than WR4 in just one of his past four games, but there’s lights still on for him here as he’ll run 86 percent of his routes away from Richard Sherman, which has been the wide receiver that teams frequently target when facing the 49ers.
Bust (underperformance)
- Nick Mullens: It’s hard to envision him completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 11.9 yards per pass attempt again in his follow up performance. The Giants are seventh in the league in passing yardage allowed per game (252.5 yards) and have allowed a top-12 scoring week in 3-of-8 games this season.
- Matt Breida: He hasn’t been better than a RB4 since Week 6 and has rushed just 47 times for 162 yards (3.4 YPC) over his past four games. The long layoff and the injury to Raheem Mostert could free him up for more touches and help in getting him back to 100 percent, but Breida hasn’t had more than 61 total yards in a game since Week 4.
