Quarterback
Start: Baker Mayfield, Bucs
Mayfield has finished as a QB1 six times this year and has finished as a top-15 option nine times. He currently ranks eighth in EPA per dropback and 15th in yards per attempt. He and the Bucs get a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year.
Start: Justin Fields, Bears
Fields has been a scary start this year. He has four finishes as a top-eight quarterback, three of which were as the QB1 or QB2 overall, and four finishes outside of the top 20. It’s all ceiling and no floor with him. The good news is that Vegas likes this to be a ceiling game for the young passer, giving the Bears a 24-point implied team total. That’s two points more than their previous season-high team total. The Cardinals’ defense ranks 31st in EPA per play allowed and has given up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
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Sit: Jordan Love, Packers
The Packers have a middling, 20.75 implied team total and face a Panthers team that does not give up points to quarterbacks. They rank 32nd in fantasy points allowed to passers on the back of a solid defense and an offense that does nothing to force other teams to pass. The Panthers have faced the ninth-lowest pass rate over expected and the second-fewest plays per game. Green Bay should win this game easily, but that may not translate to fantasy points for Love.
Sit: Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Murray has struggled since returning to action this year. He ranks 28th in EPA per dropback and 40th in CPOE. Pro Football Focus has him graded as their No. 34 passer. On top of that, Murray is only averaging 2.2 designed carries per game. With the Bears’ defense playing better as of late, Murray should stay on fantasy benches.
Running Back
Start: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
The Packers have faced the sixth-highest pass rate over expected this year and that has led them to giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. That works out well for the Panthers, who have a -14 percent pass rate over expected since firing Frank Reich.
In turn, Chuba Hubbard has 70 rush attempts over his past three appearances. The Panthers are just trying to run out the clock on the 2023 season, so negative game script has next to no impact on their ability to run the ball.
Start: Devin Singletary, Texans
Singletary appears to have taken hold of the Houston backfield once again. He has seen 75 percent of the Texans’ carries over the past two weeks to go along with an 11 percent target share. That has resulted in 43 touches for 235 yards from scrimmage.
Sit: Derrick Henry, Titans
The Titans are 2.5-point underdogs and their implied team total has fallen under two 20 points based on over a point of movement against them. Henry has run a route on 32 percent of Tennessee’s passing plays this year and has a snap share just over 50 percent. On top of that, his advanced rushing metrics are falling as well. He ranks 24th in Next Gen’s rush yards over expected and 23rd in success rate. He remains a good running back but is not a the peak of his powers anymore.
Sit: James Conner, Cardinals
Conner is essentially Derrick Henry West this year. He isn’t earning targets or running routes at a high clip but dominates the between-the-tackles work. His team is also bad so there aren’t as many red zone opportunities to go around as you’d expect. Both backs are touchdown-dependent RB2s heading into the second round of the fantasy playoffs.
Wide Receiver
Start: Rashee Rice, Chiefs
Rice was a strong WR2 before last week, but we’re giving him WR1 status for Week 16. He ran a route on over 90 percent of his team’s dropbacks in Week 15, making him the first Chiefs receiver to cross that threshold in a game this season. He has a 29 percent target share over his past four games. Rice easily sits within the top 10 fantasy receivers in my Week 16 rankings.
Start: Amari Cooper, Browns
Joe Flacco is averaging 313 yards on 44 attempts per game. Both marks would lead the NFL over the course of the season. The Browns are unleashing their 38-year-old savior with a six percent pass rate over expected in his three starts.
Cooper is averaging 8.7 targets and nearly 100 air yards per game with Flacco under center. In this new version of the Browns’ offense, Cooper is back in our WR2 good graces.
Sit: Drake London, Falcons
The Falcons have a -10 percent pass rate over expected this year. Even with that mark already ranking last in the league by a wide margin, there’s always room for things to get worse. In two Taylor Heinicke starts, Arthur Smith dialed up a -14 percent pass rate over expected. London was only active for one of those games. He was targeted by Heinicke four times.
Sit: Adam Thielen, Panthers
Thielen got you to the playoffs. Keep him on your roster to get him a ring. But don’t put him in the lineup for Week 16. He hasn’t scored a touchdown in over two months and has one 15-point game since the start of November. Thielen’s target share of 22 percent over his past four appearances is down seven percent compared to where it was through 11 weeks. Combined with an absurdly run-heavy approach, Thielen is averaging fewer than six targets per game since Week 12.
Tight End
Start: Isaiah Likely, Ravens
Likely has started in Mark Andrews’ place six times over the past two seasons. He has finished as a TE1 in four of those games. Likely has a 20 percent target share on 87 percent of the Ravens’ routes since Andrews went down. In a pass-first spot versus the 49ers, he will again rank as a TE1.
Start: Tucker Kraft, Packers
Kraft isn’t inside the top-12 tight ends for Week 16, but he is the best streaming option available. He has run a route on 86 percent of Jordan Love’s dropbacks since entering the starting lineup and has at least four catches or a touchdown in all four starts.
Sit: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers
With Kenny Pickett likely to sit this week, Mason Rudolph is set to make his first start of the season. That has tanked the Steelers’ implied team total to 17.5. The Steelers are 26th in pass attempts per game and 28th in pass rate over expected. Freiermuth’s role is solid, but his offense is one of the worst fantasy environments in the league.
Sit: Darren Waller, Giants
Waller ran a route on less than half of the Giants’ dropbacks in Week 15. He earned six targets, but it’s hard to expect even that modest level of volume to hold. I fully expect his route rate to grow over the final three weeks of the season, but I wouldn’t bet my fantasy playoff hopes on him becoming a full-time player this week.
