14. Pittsburgh Steelers
Point Differential: 21st
Points Per Game: 28th
Offensive EPA: 23rd
Defensive EPA: 7th
Dropback EPA: 8th
Run Game EPA: 11th
This year’s only playoff team with a negative point differential, the Steelers are built on defense despite their recent increased offensive success under No. 3 QB Mason Rudolph. So you could say it’s not great news that DROY-contender and NFL sack leader T.J. Watt is going to miss the Wild Card Round with a sprained MCL. That leaves the Steelers needing somewhere between a flush and a full house to upset the Bills. Pittsburgh is not a one-man band on defense, while Buffalo is more vulnerable than in years past, not to mention more vulnerable than your typical No. 2 seed. This Watt-less, Rudolph-led group is simply the least likely of the postseason’s 14 teams to win a game.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Point Differential: 13th
Points Per Game: 20th
Offensive EPA: 12th
Defensive EPA: 18th
Dropback EPA: 22nd
Run Game EPA: 5th
The Bucs actually enter the postseason as a more well-rounded group than last year’s Tom Brady-led squad — they have a winning record and positive point differential, for starters — but their path has narrowed as Baker Mayfield’s play has tailed off with a recent wave of injuries, none more painful than a rib issue that had him literally gasping for air in Week 18. Mayfield, of course, has a history of playing hurt, but it’s not a good history. Unlike the Steelers, it would not take a miracle for the Bucs to beat the Eagles. The game is in Tampa and Philly is a shell of its former self. It’s just that, even if they spring the upset, there is no path to them doing it two more times and reaching the Super Bowl. The Bucs are a nice story soon set to get an ending.
Sign up to stream the Peacock Wild Card Exclusive between the Dolphins and Chiefs, only on Peacock, Saturday, Jan. 13 at 8 p.m. ET. Visit PeacockTV.com/NFL for details.
12. Houston Texans
Point Differential: 12th
Points Per Game: 13th
Offensive EPA: 15th
Defensive EPA: 14th
Dropback EPA: 20th
Run Game EPA: 6th
Surprise playoff runs are about X-factors and wild cards. The Texans have one in sensational rookie C.J. Stroud. They also have a home date, welcoming the Browns to Houston on Saturday. That’s about where the good news ends. On defense, the Texans specialize in stopping the run. The Browns specialize in ignoring the run. On offense, Stroud and Nico Collins are the difference-makers. The Browns have one of the best pass defenses of the past several seasons. Stroud had to work a miracle or two to will the Texans past the Colts in Week 18. It would take several more acts of providence to get the better of Myles Garrett’s gang. There is a path to Wild Card victory: Wait for the Joe Flacco turnover shoe to drop. Even if that happens and the Texans advance, there would be little reason to bet on this young, banged up team in the Divisional Round.
11. Green Bay Packers
Point Differential: 10th
Points Per Game: 12th
Offensive EPA: 5th
Defensive EPA: 23rd
Dropback EPA: 23rd
Run Game EPA: 22nd
The Packers inarguably have longer Wild Card upset odds than either the Bucs or Texans. But they are a more dangerous team, one better positioned to make an actual run should they shock the world at JerryWorld. 6-2 during the second half of the season and 7-4 since their bye, the Packers went 3-3 against playoff teams, with victories over the Rams, Chiefs and Lions. They have overcome injury woes on offense and survived ineffectiveness on defense. Both will nevertheless be big problems in Big D. There is no way around it: Green Bay is going to have to win a shootout. That’s an issue since Joe Barry’s unit has trouble stopping anybody and the Pack still aren’t at full strength on offense with Christian Watson and AJ Dillon at less than 100 percent. That puts increased pressure on the rest of the banged up skill player corps — basically every Packer is playing through something — to stay on the field. It boils down to the Pack needing to out-Cowboy the Cowboys and that being an unlikely proposition. If it happens, the NFC could have a problem on its hands.
10. Philadelphia Eagles
Point Differential: 15th
Points Per Game: 7th
Offensive EPA: 7th
Defensive EPA: 29th
Dropback EPA: 28th
Run Game EPA: 30th
1-5 over their past six games with the lone victory being a Christmas Day outlasting of the Giants that required a fourth quarter hold, the Eagles have the second worst point differential of any playoff team and amongst the most injury issues. They also have game-changers on both sides of the ball and a mercifully soft Wild Card road trip to a Raymond James Stadium that figures to be overflowing with Eagles fans. This is the kind of team that can get things turned around in a hurry, but that’s the problem: It has to be turned around. More of the same will equal instant elimination, even at the hands of Baker Mayfield. The Eagles can return to the Super Bowl if 4-5 relatively plausible things go right. They will be going home no later than the Divisional Round if the cavalry doesn’t come, and it usually doesn’t in these situations.
9. Los Angeles Rams
Point Differential: 11th
Points Per Game: 8th
Offensive EPA: 9th
Defensive EPA: 20th
Dropback EPA: 17th
Run Game EPA: 13th
7-1 since their bye, the Rams have a championship pedigree. They also have a pedestrian defense and ordinary blocking. The Super Bowl ceiling is probably lacking, but the ability to win a game or two is alive and well, especially against a Lions team that has failed to sort out its defensive issues while becoming banged up on the offensive side of the ball. And it must be said, if you can win a game or two, you can probably win three or four. It’s just not the most likely outcome for a white-hot team that nevertheless almost lost to the Commanders and Giants within the past month.
8. Miami Dolphins
Point Differential: 5th
Points Per Game: 2nd
Offensive EPA: 4th
Defensive EPA: 15th
Dropback EPA: 13th
Run Game EPA: 14th
The Dolphins have gone from the league’s most exciting team to the most injured. If that sounds familiar, it’s because the same thing happened heading into the 2022-23 playoffs. They were still only a play or two away from securing the AFC’s No. 2 seed but instead find themselves hitting the road to play in zero-degree weather at Arrowhead Stadium. Despite all their defensive losses — Bradley Chubb, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker, Jaelan Phillips, Cam Goode — an offensive player who is still actually playing is arguably their biggest concern. Tyreek Hill did not appear to be himself in Week 18, and it’s difficult to see how a short-week road trip into the polar vortex is going to do him any favors after playing hurt several weeks prior. If the Dolphins somehow survive Kansas City and get a little healthier — Xavien Howard could return — they could again become a dangerous team. Until then, they are a wounded entity entering the postseason with admittedly few signature victories.
7. Detroit Lions
Point Differential: 8th
Points Per Game: 5th
Offensive EPA: 8th
Defensive EPA: 21st
Dropback EPA: 25th
Run Game EPA: 4th
The Lions are one of the league’s most exciting teams with some of its best young players. The problem is they appear fatally flawed on defense, while an offense that had largely stayed healthy now has Sam LaPorta battling a knee injury. Throw in a Week 17 ref fiasco that probably cost them the No. 2 seed, and a team that needed a few things to go right to have a legitimate Super Bowl shot probably had a few too many things go wrong. This is still the beginning of the “it might actually happen” tier. Despite the blown call in Dallas, the Lions are beginning their playoff journey at home. They have proven capable of playing “perfect games” despite their defensive inadequacies. Coach Dan Campbell preaches “no fear” and practices it with his aggressive in-game decision making. You don’t have to worry about the Lions playing not to lose. They want to win. They just might do so.
6. Cleveland Browns
Point Differential: 9th
Points Per Game: 11th
Offensive EPA: 28th
Defensive EPA: 1st
Dropback EPA: 1st
Run Game EPA: 15th
By now you probably know the Browns went 5-1 with Joe Flacco. What you may have forgotten is they went 2-1 with P.J. Walker. That included a victory over an injury-reeling 49ers squad. This is a dangerous team with a difference-making defense, the kind capable of dragging a group all the way to the Super Bowl. The biggest question remains Flacco. His season-ending heater included no shortage of dropped interceptions. Is the other shoe about to drop for the famously “pass first, think later” quarterback? It hasn’t felt like it despite the narrowly-avoided miscues. The last time Flacco looked like this, the Ravens beat Peyton Manning in the Divisional Round and went 4-0 en route to their second Super Bowl title. Although it is narrower than that of the other “true contenders,” the Browns have a legitimate path to the Lombardi.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Point Differential: 6th
Points Per Game: 15th
Offensive EPA: 11th
Defensive EPA: 6th
Dropback EPA: 3rd
Run Game EPA: 28th
The Chiefs played three playoff teams after their Week 10 bye and lost to all of them. In fact, they finished 1-4 against clubs that made the tournament. So why am I still ranking them as a legitimate contender? When you think “playoff X-factors” in a vacuum, what comes to mind? For me, it’s either an elite defense or an “instant offense” quarterback. The kind of signal caller who can make plays on his own instead of having them spoon-fed by his play-caller. The Chiefs have both, and let’s be real: This team is scarcely different from the one that just lifted the Lombardi. At some point they have to stop dropping every pass, right? They have a “run-starting” Wild Card matchup in a shell-shocked, road-tripping, injury-ruined Dolphins team that’s still trying to figure out how it coughed up the No. 2 seed. If the Chiefs beat Miami — which the bookmakers expect them to do — all bets are off for a group led by the best player on the planet.
4. Buffalo Bills
Point Differential: 4th
Points Per Game: 6th
Offensive EPA: 3rd
Defensive EPA: 11th
Dropback EPA: 7th
Run Game EPA: 24th
Undefeated since their Week 13 bye with victories over the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins, the Bills enter the postseason on a hot streak that took them from the golf course to the two seed. But it wouldn’t be entirely accurate to say they got their mojo back. They almost lost to the Chargers and Patriots, for instance, while Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs never renewed their early-season connection. Allen had as many passing touchdowns as interceptions (five) during the streak, though he contributed the obligatory six scores on the ground. This is not the Bills’ offense of 2020-22, but it’s also not the AFC of 2020-22. The Mahomes Chiefs have never been so flawed and Joe Burrow is at home. The Bills’ injury-wrecked defense has been surprisingly resilient. If coach Sean McDermott can avoid turtling at all the biggest moments — a huge “if” — the Bills could become a classic post-peak championship winner in the mold of the 2006 Colts or 2015 Broncos.
3. Dallas Cowboys
Point Differential: 2nd
Points Per Game: 1st
Offensive EPA: 2nd
Defensive EPA: 4th
Dropback EPA: 5th
Run Game EPA: 10th
Combining a relentless offense with an opportunistic defense, this is the closest the Cowboys have come to recreating their ‘90s dominance. Consistent all season long — the Cowboys’ lone loss to a non-playoff team came in Week 3 against the Cardinals — Big D enters the postseason with a whopping nine wins of 20-plus points. That’s five more than either the Ravens or 49ers. If there’s a complaint, it’s that Mike McCarthy’s squad went “just” 3-4 against playoff qualifiers, including late-season losses to Bills and Dolphins teams that were not at full strength. The Cowboys got demolished by the 49ers in October. This is not an invulnerable unit. It is one with all the ingredients — most notably game-changers in every position group — for Super Bowl success.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Point Differential: 1st
Points Per Game: 4th
Offensive EPA: 6th
Defensive EPA: 2nd
Dropback EPA: 2nd
Run Game EPA: 16th
13-4, the Ravens never had a losing streak and never lost a game by more than one score. They have the league MVP, the best point differential, an elite defense and an elite offense. The 49ers have seen to it that the Ravens are not the clear Super Bowl favorite, but you can credibly argue no team is better positioned to hoist the Lombardi. The Ravens, as you may recall, roughed up those same 49ers on Christmas night. There are vulnerabilities. A team that wants to be balanced enters the postseason with a weak backfield. They are also ordinary against the run on defense. If one of January’s dreaded trench battles breaks out in awful Baltimore weather, the Ravens could find themselves upset vulnerable. But you could say that about any team in a winter weather coin flip. Not even San Francisco took care of business on as consistent of a basis as Baltimore this season. Hegemonic favorites in the AFC, the Ravens will be ready for their 49ers rematch if it materializes in Vegas.
1. San Francisco 49ers
Point Differential: 3rd
Points Per Game: 3rd
Offensive EPA: 1st
Defensive EPA: 10th
Dropback EPA: 6th
Run Game EPA: 26th
This is how you build a Super Bowl contender. Scratch that, this is how you build a Super Bowl favorite. The 49ers don’t have difference-makers on both sides of the ball, they have All-Pros on both sides of the ball. Almost every position group is anchored by one of the best players in football. Coach Kyle Shanahan has constructed an extraordinary machine, with the lone concern being it is too elaborate. The one time the Niners dealt with true injury adversity this season, they went on a three-game losing streak. Are they going to fall apart the second one gear gets out of place? Christian McCaffrey nearly tested the theory when he injured his calf in Week 17, but he will be ready for the Divisional Round. For now, the instrument is tuned up and ready to go. If they survive the NFC, a Ravens rematch looms. Baltimore knocked San Francisco off its game before blowing it out of the building in Week 16. 1-53, I believe the 49ers are still the better team. The bookmakers believe they are Super Bowl favorites. Now it’s time to play the games.
