We’re starting to hit our stride with another 6-4 week in the books for Week 14, which has given us a little cushion in the season-long record. Part of the recent success has been a minor tweak in the formula, but we’re also just trusting good defenses to perform even in mediocre spots, which is exactly what allowed teams like the Texans, Eagles, Lions, and Rams to deliver usable performances this week.
I’m doubling down on that even more in the fantasy playoffs, and that’s exactly why I faded the Commanders so hard last week. I can’t put my fantasy season in the hands of a bad defense just because I like their matchup. The risk is too high. If you play a solid defense like the Steelers or Bucs and they let you down, you’re probably getting 5-7 points. If you play bad defenses and they don’t deliver, you could get a zero or worse, like when we rolled the dice on the Falcons earlier in the season. I’d rather have the safer floor from mt defense when it comes to the fantasy playoffs.
As far as the top 10 goes, the Seahawks, yet again, were the top defense of the week, and the Texans, Broncos, and Eagles all landed inside the top 10. We also correctly called the Dolphins and Jaguars inside the top 10, which were less common choices, and I feel pretty good about winding up with the Titans as the 11th-ranked defense, even if they weren’t a top 10 call.
I also published my playoff rankings for the fantasy football playoffs. I plan to update that tomorrow, so check back in on that if you want suggestions for beyond Week 15.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 14: 6-4
SEASON-LONG: 73-67
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.
To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):
((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2)
MINUS
(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (3rd DOWN CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.5) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))
I then add that total to the team’s fantasy points per game over the last eight weeks, since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
DST WEEK 15 RANKINGS | |||
| Rank | Tier One DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
The Seahawks have been far and away the best fantasy defense of late. Over the last two months, they rank 1st in the league in third-down conversion rate, 1st in opponents’ scoring rate, 1st in EPA per play allowed, 2nd in pressure rate, and 2nd in turnover rate, while averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game. The Colts will also be forced to turn to Riley Leonard at quarterback after Daniel Jones suffered a torn Achilles on Sunday, and primary deep threat Alec Pierce also suffered a concussion and is highly unlikely to play this week. I don’t think we should overthink this one.
Over the last two months, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in pressure rate, 3rd in turnover rate, 3rd in EPA per play allowed, 5th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 9th in third-down conversion rate while scoring 10.4 fantasy points per game. I do expect Marvin Harrison Jr. to return this week, but that likely means the Cardinals will limit Michael Wilson’s involvement, and I’m not sure that’s a net gain. Arizona also played last week without its starting left guard, Evan Brown, which would be an issue against the Texans’ pass rush, but the Cardinals also rank 25th on the season in sack rate allowed, so that could be an even bigger issue.
The Eagles are coming off a 13-point effort in a loss to the Chargers on Monday Night Football that could rest firmly on the shoulders of Jalen Hurts. Over the last two months, the defense ranks 2nd in pressure rate, 4th in EPA per play allowed, 10th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 12th in turnover rate. They will now play a wilting Raiders team that could be starting Kenny Pickett at quarterback, due to injuries. Although, I’m not entirely sure he can play much worse than Geno Smith had been. The Eagles are at home with a 1.5 game lead in the NFC East and will look to get one step closer to securing that division title with a win here.
| Rank | Tier Two DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
The Jaguars are getting a string of pretty solid luck with opponents’ quarterback play. Last week, they played the Colts when Daniel Jones got hurt early in the game, and now they’ll play a Jets team that could likely turn to undrafted rookie Brady Cook at quarterback due to injuries to Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields. Cook looked totally overmatched against the Dolphins on Sunday, and that bodes really well for this Jaguars defense that ranks 6th in EPA per play allowed, 9th in pressure rate, and 9th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last two months. Even if the Jets did get Garrett Wilson back (and why bring him back to this offensive environment?), the Jaguars would still be a strong play this week. If Tyrod Taylor does play, I might move the Jags down to the next tier, but they’d be a top-ten play still.
Yes, I know the Browns offense that just lit up the Titans and Shedeur Sanders is the talk of the town, but the Titans’ defense is bad, and the Browns also turned the ball over twice, allowed two sacks, and lost outright. Beating the Titans with intermediate throws is not the same as facing a Bears defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in turnover rate and 12th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last two months. Sanders has taken eight sacks in his three starts and has a sack rate of 7.21 on the season. If he were his own team, that would rank 21st in the NFL. To make matters worse, the Browns lost starting center Ethan Pocic to a season-ending Achilles injury on Sunday, and starting right guard Wyatt Teller is also expected to miss this Sunday with an injury. If starting right tackle Jack Conklin, who missed Week 14, can’t get back on the field, Sanders would be playing behind three backup linemen, which is concerning.
People are sleeping on the Dolphins’ defense. Over the last two months, they rank 2nd in the league in opponents’ scoring rate, 3rd in third-down conversion rate, 5th in EPA per play allowed, and 10th in turnover rate, while scoring 8.4 fantasy points per game. This Pittsburgh offense did put up a fight against the Ravens last week and hit the ball downfield to DK Metcalf more than they had all season, so maybe that sticks. However, both starting left tackle Andrus Peat and starting tight end Darnell Washington suffered concussions on Sunday, which makes them longshots to play this week. That would be a big hit to their pass-blocking. Even though that’s not really an area where Miami thrives, I just think this Dolphins defense is better than people give them credit for, and this matchup doesn’t scare me.
The Browns didn’t deliver against the Titans last week, but Tom Brady has always said snow games are better for the offense, so maybe we can create an excuse for Cleveland. The truth is, this remains a good defense, ranking 2nd in the league in EPA per play allowed, 3rd in pressure rate, 7th in third-down conversion rate, and 8th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last two months. They are a far better pass defense than run defense, and I think that should help them against the Bears, who will likely be without Rome Odunze again.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
| Rank | Tier Three DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
The Chargers’ defense was great on Monday night, and, frankly, has been good for the last few weeks. Over the last two months, they rank 2nd in third-down conversion rate, 6th in opponents’ scoring rate, 8th in EPA per play allowed, and 10th in pressure rate while averaging 6.6 fantasy points per game. The Chiefs were also down three starting offensive linemen last week, and Patrick Mahomes was under constant pressure. There is a chance that right tackle Jawaan Taylor and left guard Trey Smith are back this week, so we’ll need to watch the practice reports. If they are back, I’d likely put the Chargers near the bottom of their tier, but the Chiefs looked really bad on Sunday night.
Man, the Bucs let us down against the Saints, and it’s hard to feel confident in them right now. Yet, they rank 5th in turnover rate over the last two months and are averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game. They’re also taking on a Falcons offense that has allowed an average of 8.75 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. The Bucs are at home with their playoff hopes on the line, so I do think they’ll show up here. The potential return of Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan could also make the offense more successful, which would put the Falcons in more desperate situations and allow for more sacks/turnovers. We’ll need to keep an eye on Drake London’s status here as well.
There was a brief stretch where we thought the Cowboys’ defense was coming on, but the truth is that they are a better unit than they were to start the season, but still not a great one. Over the last two months, they rank 6th in pressure rate but 26th in opponents’ scoring rate, 27th in turnover rate, and 27th in EPA per play allowed. As I’m writing this out, I’m wondering why I have them ranked so high, but the truth is that J.J. McCarthy looked really good on the early scripted drives last week and then not nearly as good after that. I faded the Commanders against the Vikings because the Commanders’ defense is flat-out bad, but this Cowboys’ defense is competent, so maybe they can get 7+ fantasy points here for us.
As I mentioned above, the Chiefs are at home with their season on the line. Over the last two months, they rank 7th in pressure rate and 11th in opponents’ scoring rate, but have averaged just 4.7 fantasy points per game. Still, this Chargers offense just allowed the Eagles to finish as a top-five defense and lost another offensive lineman on Monday night when Trey Pipkins III left the game with an ankle injury. This Chiefs defense can get after the quarterback, and the Chargers rank 28th in sack rate allowed on the season, so that’s a good combo for this Chiefs defense.
The Panthers and Saints are two probably mediocre teams that also play really well at times and thwart our matchups, so they should be facing each other now. Either defense has the chance to be the top-scoring defense or be ranked outside of the top 20. On the surface, this is a solid play for both teams, and I like the Saints’ defense more. Over the last two months, they rank 5th in third-down conversion rate allowed and 7th in EPA per play allowed, while averaging 6.0 fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, the Panthers rank 7th in turnover rate but have put up 7.3 fantasy points per game. Devin Neal and Tyler Shough are coming off solid games against a decent Bucs defense, and the Saints are at home here, but the Saints have also allowed 10.7 fantasy points per game over the last month, while the Panthers have allowed just 5.0. The Panthers are coming off a bye and are tied for the NFC South lead, so I expect them to come out and take advantage of this matchup.
The 49ers are coming off a bye and facing one of the worst teams in football, which is really the only reason they are in this tier. And, in truth, the Titans haven’t actually been as good a matchup for fantasy defenses of late, allowing just 7.5 fantasy points per game over the last month. They just held the Browns to two fantasy points last week, and the Seahawks to four points per game in Week 12. Now, the Jaguars did deliver against them in Week 13, so the Titans are by no means a good offense, but this 49ers defense also ranks 15th in opponents’ scoring rate, 16th in turnover rate, 23rd in EPA per play allowed, and dead last in pressure rate over the last two months, while averaging just 5.0 fantasy points per game. They’re a below-average defense that you’re using just for a matchup, and we saw what happened with the Commanders last week when people tried to do that. I could see using them in deeper formats, but I’d rather not.
On the surface, this may seem like a low ranking for the Steelers, but over the last two months, they rank 8th in turnover rate and are averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game. That’s fine, but not great. The other aspect of this is that the Dolphins have figured out their offense a bit. They’ve won five of their last six games and are allowing just 6.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. If the weather is bad in Pittsburgh, then I might move the Steelers up, but I don’t love this matchup as much as you might think.
The Rams have a really good defense. Over the last two months, they rank 3rd in the league in opponents’ scoring rate, 4th in EPA per play allowed, 6th in turnover rate, 11th in pressure rate, and 12th in third-down conversion rate while averaging 8.7 fantasy points per game. I hate this matchup but at some point, you can’t keep dropping a good defense down the rankings.
| Rank | Tier Four DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
A lot of good defenses in bad matchups here.
The Ravens just faced the Bengals two weeks ago and scored 2.0 fantasy points. Tee Higgins also missed that game, so his missing this game with a concussion (that he very clearly played through last week and the team didn’t seem to care) doesn’t impact this ranking too much. Over the last two months, the Ravens rank 6th in third-down conversion rate, 9th in turnover rate, and 9th in EPA per play allowed
Over the last two months, the Bills rank 4th in turnover rate and 12th in EPA per play allowed while averaging 8.6 fantasy points per game. Since their Week 7 bye, the Bills lead the league in interceptions, are 2nd in defensive success rate, and have allowed the 8th-lowest explosive play rate. Still, this is not a great matchup, and they’re on the road with the Patriots trying to clinch an AFC East title, so I’d rather not play them in this spot.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots rank 4th in third-down conversion rate, 4th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 10th in pressure rate over the last two months. However, since defensive tackle Milton Williams got hurt in Week 11, the Patriots rank 23rd in EPA per play allowed, 31st in defensive success rate, and 27th in yards per carry allowed. That’s not great when they’re going up against Josh Allen, James Cook, and this Bills offense.
The Broncos are Packers are both solid defenses. Over the last two months, the Broncos rank 10th in third-down conversion rate, 10th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 11th in EPA per play allowed, while the Packers rank 12th in turnover rate. They both average around 7.0 fantasy points per game; however, both offenses allow under 3.0 fantasy points per game over the last month, so I’d avoid playing both of these defenses.
| Rank | Tier Five DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
