We’re one week away from the fantasy football playoffs (or perhaps you’re already in them), so it’s time to unveil our playoff defense (DST) rankings. You may already have a spot locked up, or perhaps you need to win this week to get in, but regardless, we’re now firmly at the time of year where you need to be planning weeks in advance, which includes having your defenses ready to go, even if that means having two on your roster to alternate games with.
To help with that, I’ve created a Playoff Score to rank the defenses for Weeks 15-17. I took my standard BOD Formula (pasted below), which I use to calculate the most trustworthy fantasy defenses, and then I input each team’s opponents for three weeks of the fantasy playoffs. That means the Playoff Score takes into account each team’s fantasy success over the past six weeks, underlying metrics over that time, plus their upcoming schedule.
How Do I Use These Rankings?
Since I use recent fantasy points scored per game and also use an offense’s points allowed to opposing defenses as part of this formula, that means that these rankings will likely change incrementally week after week as teams change their overall performance and offensive rankings change, which impacts the ease of the matchup. As a result, my advice for how to best use this article is to get a sense of which teams are set up best for playoff success, but use the color-coded chart below to try and find two defenses that you can put on your roster to rotate matchups and avoid having to start any defenses in a subpar matchup.
The matchups highlighted in green are the 10 easiest matchups for fantasy defenses, according to performance over the last month (teams ranked 32nd to 23rd), and the matchups highlighted in red are the 10 hardest matchups (10th to first, obviously). You’ll see some additional comments below that help to clarify some of those rankings.
BOD Formula:
((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2)
MINUS
(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.75) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))
Important Rankings Notes
Before we dive into the rankings, there are a couple of quick notes about how each team is ranked as an opponent that you need to know.
- I used the average fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses over the last month to get the most accurate representation of how the teams are playing right now.
- When a team’s ranking over the last four weeks differed drastically from its season-long ranking and didn’t have a major injury to blame, I averaged their ranking over the last four weeks with their season-long ranking to try to put together a more accurate picture, so that’s why you may see some duplicate rankings.
- The Bengals’ ranking I manually adjusted to reflect how I believe the team will be impacted by Joe Burrow being under center. From a data standpoint, the Bengals have been a great matchup for opposing defenses, but I no longer believe that will be the case with Burrow back.
- I did not make a similar adjustment for the Ravens because they have been poor on offense even with Lamar Jackson back. I don’t believe he’s healthy.
- I left the Vikings’ offensive ranking where it is because J.J. McCarthy has been really bad, but I don’t expect them to stay the best matchup for opposing defenses.
- I downgraded the Chiefs’ offense slightly because they just put their left tackle on IR, and they have two other linemen injured, so I feel that needed to be reflected.
- The Chargers’ offense was upgraded slightly because Omarion Hampton will be coming back, and it doesn’t appear that Justin Herbert will miss more than one game, if he misses any games at all with this wrist injury. However, their offensive line is a mess, so I only modified their matchup ranking a little bit.
Fantasy Football Playoff Rankings
Not only have the Texans been one of my favorite defenses on the season, but they get three really good matchups in Weeks 15-17. It doesn’t get much better than that.
The Rams and Seahawks are also two defenses that I’ve loved using this season, but they don’t have the best schedule. The Rams have a matchup with the Lions in Week 15 that we’d like to avoid, and the Seahawks get a matchup against the Rams in Week 16 that isn’t great, in addition to a mediocre matchup against the Colts. Still, these are defenses that we’ve come to rely on and trust, so I could convince myself to use them every week if I didn’t have other options.
The Eagles have come on a fantasy defense of late, but they’re a tick below the top three, as you can see from the Playoff Score. The matchup against the Raiders is great, but going into Buffalo in Week 17 isn’t ideal. The matchup against the Commanders could be influenced by whether or not we get Jayden Daniels back for that game.
The Patriots have been almost as trustworthy as the top three defenses, but their schedule isn’t as enticing. The Jets game to end the season is a solid one, but the Jets haven’t been as good a matchup with Justin Fields benched. Still, we have no problem using the Patriots there. The Ravens and Bills are usually offenses we don’t want to attack, but they are both playing below their standards right now. Do you want to chance going against them with a good defense?
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
- Rams paired with Cowboys, Bears, Chiefs, or Dolphins
- Seahawks paired with Cowboys, Lions, Chiefs, Bills, or Falcons
- Eagles paired with Lions, Saints, Steelers, or Colts
- Patriots paired with Chiefs, Dolphins, Bears, or Cowboys
We’ve been relying on the Browns’ defense most of the year, and we’d like to keep doing so, but matchups against Chicago and Buffalo aren’t ideal. We love the Steelers matchup, and if you wanted to use the Browns for all games, I wouldn’t blame you.
The Cowboys’ defense remains inconsistent, as evidenced by Thursday night’s game, but they are a better unit than they were months ago. They also get a pretty enticing schedule for the fantasy playoffs, especially if Jayden Daniels were to be shut down with Washington not in contention.
The Bucs schedule is a good one, but we should just be warned that it looks more enticing on paper than it has been in reality of late. Miami has seemed to figure out its offensive gameplan over the last few weeks, and it’s no longer an ideal matchup. Some of that has been due to opponents, and I certainly don’t think Miami is a juggernaut, but they are allowing under five fantasy points per game over the last month and have some talented playmakers on offense. We also just saw the Panthers outright beat the Rams, so you never know what to expect from them. This schedule is a bit trickier than we would have expected a couple of weeks ago.
The Lions are really banged up on defense, but we know they have a great pass rush, as we saw on Thursday. You certainly don’t want to play them against the Rams, but the schedule for Weeks 16-17 is really nice, and the Lions could be a great play those weeks.
The Bears and Broncos have been good defenses, but the schedules don’t look great for them. You certainly want to use the Bears against the Browns, and the Broncos could be usable for the final two weeks, but are you going to trust a defense against the Chiefs in the fantasy finals? I can see it, but it makes me a bit uneasy. Still, these are not bad defenses to pair with somebody else.
For example, the Saints and Bills make solid defenses to pair with more trustworthy units. Both of them have been defenses that we’ve used with success in the past, but they aren’t set-it-and-forget-it types. Still, you want to use the Bills against the Browns, and the Saints could be usable in all three games. There is some risk against the Panthers and, to a lesser extent, the Jets, but the Saints feel like a safe floor play regardless.
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
- Browns paired with Cowboys, Chiefs, Bears, Dolphins, or Saints
- Cowboys paired with Browns, Lions, Saints, Bucs, Steelers, or Colts
- Bucs paired with Lions, Browns, Saints, or Steelers
- Lions paired with Chiefs, Dolphins, Panthers, or Bears
- Bears paired with Lions, Saints, Bills, or Cowboys
- Broncos paired with Chiefs, Dolphins, Panthers, or Bears
- Bills paired with Chiefs, Cowboys, Bears, or Dolphins
We’re now getting outside of the most consistently solid defenses, so you’re just hoping to take advantage of good matchups here. As a result, there aren’t really any pairings listed below. You’re really only using these defenses as a one-off, unless you’re going to trust the Chiefs in that Week 15 game against the Chargers, and then you could probably move them in the tier above. That will depend on Justin Herbert’s health.
The Dolphins are another defense that has been trending up of late and has a decent schedule. I don’t love the idea of playing them against a healthy Bengals team, and there’s a good chance that Mike Evans is also back for the Bucs in Week 17. I’m monitoring this because there’s a chance that I don’t want to use the Dolphins at all.
The rest of the teams are all matchup plays. The Ravens have been a solid defense lately, but their schedule is not good. The Falcons will likely be a solid play against the Cardinals, and I can see using the Chargers against the Texans, Steelers against the Browns, or the Jaguars against the Jets.
I would try not to use any of these defenses for the fantasy playoffs.
