Fantasy championship week is underway. Hopefully, you didn’t have many players on the field for Christmas. Even you did, these are the players you need to start to claw your way back into the race.
Start: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Lawrence’s monster run over the past month has him all the way up to QB5 on the year and Sportsbooks are sold on the Jags offense. They have a 27.5 implied team total, the fifth-highest of the week. Lawrence gets a Colts defense that ranks 20th in EPA per dropback allowed. Because Indy is a top-10 unit against the run, they have faced a +2% pass rate over expected this year. That is the third-highest mark in the league. In the best rhythm of his career, Lawrence is a safe bet for QB1 numbers versus the Colts.
Start: Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals
Brissett has made 11 starts this year. He has finished outside of the QB1 ranks just twice and is averaging 19.8 points per game, making him the QB5 since he took over. This week, he gets a Bengals defense that ranks 30th in EPA per play allowed. Cincinnati has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing passers. The 53.5-point total in their matchup is the highest of the week. It’s three points clear of every game other than Bears/49ers.
Sit: C.J. Stroud, Texans
Stroud is the best quarterback who never scores any fantasy points. He is the QB9 by EPA per play and has one top-10 weekly finish this year. The odds are stacked against him in Week 17. The Chargers are the No. 5 defense in EPA per dropback allowed. They are giving up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The game’s total has dropped to 39.5 and the Texans’ team total is at 19. For reference, that is below the Dolphins and Raiders.
Sit: Jaxson Dart, Giants
Dart was only fun when the Giants let him run. Those days are long over. Dart has three designed carries in three games since Brian Daboll was fired. He is averaging 30 rushing yards per game with Mike Kafka as the interim head coach. That would be a lot for some quarterbacks. Not for Dart. The rookie averaged 7.9 attempts for 45 yards and one touchdown per game under Daboll. Dart will be a fun bet to make in 2026, but his time in the QB2 ranks has come to an end for this season.
Start: Omarion Hampton, Chargers
Kimani Vidal is likely on the wrong side of questionable this week, potentially leaving Hassan Haskins to back up Hampton. Haskins saw four attempts last week. He did not run a single route. Before going on IR with a foot injury earlier this year, Hampton had at least five catches in three straight games. He ran a route on 62 percent of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks and earned a 15 percent target share in these three games despite leaving the third early. He averaged 21.1 fantasy points.
Start: Bucky Irving, Bucs
It hasn’t been fun starting Bucky since he returned to the lineup, but his usage remains solid. Irving has seen 69 percent of the team’s carries over the past two weeks and has a good (but not great) route rate of 42 percent. A lack of goal line work has been an issue in recent weeks, but Irving might be able to find the end zone from distance on Sunday. Miami ranks 26th in explosive run rate allowed.
Sit: Derrick Henry, Ravens
The Packers are a run-funnel in that they face loads of rush attempts. They are not, however, an easy team to run on. Green Bay ranks 11th in yards after contact per carry allowed and 10th in yards before contact. They have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Lamar Jackson is listed as doubtful for Week 17 with a back injury, meaning the Packers will have an even easier time focusing on shutting Henry down.
Sit: Breece Hall, Jets
The season ended three weeks ago for Hall, we just didn’t know it yet. Brady Cook has appeared in three games this year. They have all been disastrous for Hall.
He hasn’t logged an RB1 finish since Week 10 and that doesn’t look likely to change this week. Hall’s route rate has fallen below 50 percent in each of his past two games. He has seen one goal line carry since Justin Fields left the lineup in Week 11. The Jets simply can’t support a top-24 fantasy back with Cook under center.
Start: Adonai Mitchell, Jets
We get to start our air yards king one final time. Even with Brady Cook on the sticks, Mitchell has earned 40 percent of the Jets’ air yards and 23 percent of the targets. Mitchell has a 29.5 percent first-read target share and has seen a third of the team’s end zone looks. The Pats are a good defense on all fronts, but if they are beatable in any way, it’s on deep shots. New England has allowed the 10th-highest rate of explosive plays through the air.
Start: Mack Hollins, Patriots
Kayshon Boutte is expected to be out this week with a concussion. Hollins averaged 13.5 PPR points in the two games Boutte missed earlier this season. With Boutte out, Hollins consolidated the air yards. He racked up a 25 percent target share and 35 percent of the air yards over those two weeks. Of note, Hollins is dealing with an abdominal injury and the Christmas practice schedule makes it difficult to get a read on his status for Week 17 as of Friday morning. If you’re planning on starting Hollins, keeping Kyle Williams as a backup is the move. Williams has 16 targets this year and 12 of them have come 10+ yards downfield.
Sit: Emeka Egbuka, Bucs
This one can be rather short. Egbuka ran a route on 50 percent of Baker Mayfield’s dropbacks last week. Jalen McMillan ran more routes than him and out-targeted him 3-2. These are not that opportunity numbers of a playable fantasy option.
Sit: Jayden Reed, Packers
The spread in Packers/Ravens has ballooned to six points with Jackson listed as doubtful for Week 17. That should be more than enough to take the air out of the football no matter who starts at quarterback. Green Bay ranks 20th in pass race when playing from ahead. Their offense runs at the ninth-slowest pace with a lead. Reed’s 16 percent target share since returning from IR won’t be enough to get home in a run-first game this week.
Start: Juwan Johnson, Saints
Johnson has hit at least seven PPR points — a completely arbitrary number other than the fact that it’s the mark he reaches most weeks — in a dozen games this year. The last time he was held below seven PPR points was Week 6. His current high-floor streak has not-so-surprisingly coincided with the trade of Rashid Shaheed and the benching of Spencer Rattler. He has gained two points per game when Shough gets to play and 1.6 points with Shaheed gone. Johnson is a clear TE1 versus a toothless Titans defense.
Start: Darnell Washington, Steelers
DK Metcalf will miss the next two weeks while serving a suspension for an altercation with a fan. Metcalf aside, since Week 3, Darnell Washington is second on the Steelers in targets, trailing only Kenneth Gainwell. Washington leads the non-Metcalf Steelers in yards per route run (1.68) this year. Only Jaylen Warren is averaging more YAC per catch than the burly tight end. He is their best option for moving the ball through the air with Metcalf on ice for the remainder of the regular season.
Sit: Mark Andrews, Ravens
Things get ugly for Andrews when Jackson is out of the lineup. He goes from a viable TE2 at 8.6 PPR points per game to barely a TE3 at 5.3 PPG when Jackson is out.
The Packers are also particularly stingy versus tight ends. They have given up the eighth-fewest points to the position this year. There are better options on your waiver wire than Andrews this week.
Sit: Oronde Gadsden, Chargers
The Chargers are using their backup tight end more often as of late, likely to compensate for the loss of left tackle Joe Alt. That, in turn, has seemingly put an end to the Gadsden experiment. He has a 12 percent target share on 67 percent of the routes over the past month. In the prior month, Gadsden had seen 21 percent of the team’s targets on a 79 percent route rate.
