Starting two quarterbacks completely changes the dynamic of fantasy drafts. It makes a position that is frequently eschewed by fantasy gamers valuable, and quarterback ultimately becomes the focal point in any 2QB league. The most essential question asked in any 2QB draft is when should I draft my signal-callers?
2QB ADP History
To figure out where we would be best off selecting our quarterbacks, we first need to understand how they have been drafted historically. Here’s a look at 2QB quarterback ADP since 2013. 2017 ADP is pulled from the most recent update at TwoQBs.
Fantasy gamers were really prioritizing the quarterback position four years ago, taking 11 signal-callers in the first 21 picks on average in 2013. Since then, quarterback ADP has steadily dropped. This peaked last season, with 2016 quarterback ADP by far the highest line on the chart above. Draft position has come back to the pack some in 2017, but is still higher than every other year. Here is the average number of quarterbacks off the board by round in 12 team leagues.
| Round | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # QBs | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 32 |
Overall, the top 12 quarterbacks are off the board around pick 50, with typically 14 gone through five rounds. The QB2 tier is all selected by the double-digit rounds. If you want a top quarterback, be prepared to spend a second, or even first round pick. Speaking of which, there is one very interesting trend at the top of drafts.
Though quarterbacks were going latest overall in 2016, there appears to be a particularly strong discount on the top five signal-callers here in 2017. That will be important to keep in mind when we talk more about exact strategy later on.
A History of QB Scoring
I took a look at scoring over the last four seasons from every position and plotted them together on one graph.
It is easy to see why fantasy gamers have been willing to pass on quarterbacks in leagues where they are only required to start one. While there is a steep drop-off at the top, the position is still the highest scoring overall up until about the 21st ranked player. Meanwhile, the drop-off at the other positions is steeper, with the requirement of starting multiple players.
2QB leagues change this dynamic. Now having to start the same number of quarterbacks and running backs, the opportunity cost of taking a quarterback is not as great. However, if we look at scoring through the lens of points per game, there is still some incentive to wait at the position.
The top player at quarterback, running back and wide receiver score roughly the same number of points per game. However, as we move right on the chart, it is easy to see that quarterback remains the highest scoring position, while the other two experience more falloff. This is why pinning down exactly when to draft a signal-caller can be difficult.
QB Scoring Relative to ADP
Pure scoring doesn’t really tell the whole story. It is important to layer in the context of draft position when determining the optimal draft strategy. Where do high-scoring quarterbacks come from, and is the market good at predicting quarterback performance? First, let’s address the market. I took the quarterback ADP data previously discussed, and compared it to the players’ points per game averages. I removed players who missed the entire season due to injury or coach’s decision.
There is a definite trend going left to right, and the data appears to be more bunched together towards the top of the ADP scale. It would appear that the market is doing a decent job of pricing quarterbacks, with an r-squared value of 0.3819 between ADP and points per game. Let’s compare this to the other positions to see if this is true.
| Position | r-squared |
|---|---|
| QB | 0.3819 |
| RB | 0.3166 |
| WR | 0.3918 |
| TE | 0.3333 |
As you can see, ADP does the best job at predicting wide receiver scoring, with quarterback a close second. Behind that is tight end, and running back is last by a decent margin. Here’s how the positions have performed by round over the last four years.
This graph really does a great job of outlining the opportunity cost that comes with selecting a quarterback. While the early quarterbacks score the most, there are still quality scorers in the mid rounds. Meanwhile, the running backs and wide receivers see a pretty serious falloff. That applies to tight ends also, though it is worth noting most leagues only require one starter at that position.
So Where Should You Pull the Trigger?
To summarize what we’ve learned so far:
o Quarterback ADP has been steadily falling over the years, though there was a major drop last season that has since regressed.
o The top five quarterbacks are going later than ever before.
o The highest scoring position is quarterback, followed by wide receiver, running back and tight end.
o ADP explains points per game scoring the most for wide receivers, followed closely by quarterbacks. Tight ends and running backs bring up the rear with a sizeable gap.
o Quarterback is the highest scoring position on average for 10 of the first 11 rounds.
Where does this leave us in terms of quarterback selection? There are a few potential routes for fantasy gamers that I think would be successful.
The depressed quarterback ADP at the top of drafts has opened up a rare opportunity for 2QB drafters. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers each have a top-five average finish over the last four seasons, and have averaged over 21 points per game in that span. Rodgers is currently going in the back half of the first round, while Brees is going at the end of the second. They are two of the best bets in fantasy football year in and year out, making a stack of them to start drafts a quality use of the two-stud quarterback strategy. There is also the option of taking one of them at a reduced price and going with a value option or streamer at QB2.
However, I think that the optimal strategy probably does not involve taking a quarterback in the first or second round. The point expectation for the skill positions sees a massive drop after the first three rounds, so it makes the most sense to take those players in the first three rounds, maybe even four if someone you like falls. Then take two quarterbacks in the rounds four to eight range where scoring is relatively level and many producers exist.
Of course, every quarterback strategy is going to be league-dependent, and you have to be sensitive to the runs of players that come off the board. You don’t want to get caught in a run or be at the end of one and miss out on all of the QB1 or QB2-level players. I generally like to try and grab the first quarterback in a run if none have come off the board for any length of time. That run could come in the third round or the seventh, it really depends on your league mates. Like no other format, 2QB drafts require you to be flexible at all times with your approach.
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