Welcome to another edition of the SAF (Samulski’s Arbitrary Fantasy) Awards! I’m your host, Eric Samulski, and we’ve come to the ninth week of this weekly awards segment where we shine a light on the best performances, the disappointing performances, and the most misleading performances in the week of NFL action.
As the name states, the SAF Awards are totally arbitrary but no less valid and desirable awards given out by me based on the committee of voices in my head. Some awards will carry over every week while others will emerge from the ether based on my mood or the mercurial winds of pop culture trends.
While you will find plenty of actionable fantasy football information here, you’re not likely to get many of the fantasy football acronyms that make me feel like a real estate agent: EPA, aDOT, YACON, etc. Those are all valuable and have their place, but that place is not here. This is the place where we give out awards, talk some trash, and have some fun.
If you have players you believe are deserving of awards or want to suggest awards for the next week, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@SamskiNYC). But without further ado, let’s hand out some hardware that doesn’t exist and people wouldn’t really want if it did!
Star of the Week: C.J. Stroud - QB, Houston Texans
I usually try to avoid putting quarterbacks here because they naturally score more points than other positions, but we have to acknowledge what Stroud has done this season.
On Sunday, Stroud completed 30-of-42 passes for 470 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions against the Bucs. On the season, the rookie has completed 62% of his passes for 2,270 yards and 14 touchdowns with just one interception. He’s been absolutely incredible, and he’s elevating the performance of all of his receivers, including the out-of-nowhere explosion from Noah Brown this weekend.
Stroud will obviously not have games like this every week, but his performance is not a fluke and that means neither is the performance of his receivers. Well, most of his receivers.
David Blaine Illusion Award: Noah Brown - WR, Houston Texans
The David Blaine Award is a weekly award where we highlight stats that are really an illusion. Sometimes that will be when a player has an appealing role but the production isn’t there and other times, it will be when stats can mislead us to a player’s true role. This week, that award goes to Noah Brown, who had six catches for 153 yards and a touchdown this week against the Bucs.
Despite that massive day at the office, it’s important to note that Brown only had 15% of the team’s targets on the day and has only had more than 20% of the team’s targets once this season, in a game where Tank Dell was injured. Brown’s massive day was still just 16% of the team’s air yards and 74% of the routes. Brown has also never had a double-digit PPR day this season other than this week. Everything is telling us that this was one big game and not something we should chase.
Pay no attention to the illusion.
Breakout Player Award: Keaton Mitchell - RB, Baltimore Ravens
There’s no doubt that Mitchell will be the most talked about player in fantasy waiver discussions this week after ripping off 138 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries against the Seahawks this weekend. That’s why he was clearly the breakout performer of the week. However, the case for whether or not his performance can stick is more complicated.
Mitchell’s biggest runs came in the second half, but he was not just in the game for garbage time. He had four rushes in the second quarter when the game was within a score. For comparison’s sake, that’s the same number of first half carries as both Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. However, Mitchell also played just 13 snaps, with Justice Hill playing 48 snaps. Hill also had 10 of the 13 long down and distance snaps, and Edwards took all of the snaps inside the five yard line.
So Hill remained the lead back and clear passing game back on Sunday with Gus Edwards operating as the short-yardage back. That could change next week but, on the surface, that doesn’t leave a lot of room for Mitchell early on. He is clearly an explosive player and has a high fantasy ceiling, but it will be hard to predict what this backfield will look like the coming weeks. Hill is not a world-beater, and we know Edwards is limited as a playmaker, so Mitchell has the highest ceiling of the group. We just don’t know if he’ll get the chance, so keep that in mind when putting in your FAAB bids.
Looking for more fantasy football content? Rotoworld has you covered. Watch Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry weekdays at noon ET LIVE on Peacock and the Rotoworld Football Show on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays wherever you get your podcasts.
Ryan Gosling Replacement Award: Alec Pierce - WR, Indianapolis Colts
Did you know George Clooney was originally cast as the lead in “The Notebook”? Did you know he was going to play a younger version of Paul Newman? Eventually, George Clooney decided not to go through with it, and Ryan Gosling was cast in the role, and the rest is history.
In the spirit of that moment, we give this award to the player who is set to take over a role vacated by a notable player ahead of them. This week, that award goes to Alec Pierce, who would seem to get a boost in fantasy value if Josh Downs misses time. Only, we don’t yet know if Josh Downs will miss time, but we do know that he came into Sunday’s game with a knee injury and left in the second quarter.
In his stead, Pierce was in on 100% of the Colts’ routes but saw just 9% of the team’s targets. I think that was just the consequences of a weird game where the Colts scored two defensive touchdowns and their offense was either not on the field or didn’t need to do much while playing with a big lead.
Even with Downs healthy, Pierce has run at least 93% of the team’s routes in each of the last three weeks and had seen a double-digit target share in three straight weeks before Sunday. The results have not been great, but he will clearly be the number two receiver if Downs misses time in an offense that doesn’t really have weapons aside from Michael Pittman Jr. That makes Pierce a solid add in deep leagues.
The Office Space Award: Christian Watson - WR, Green Bay Packers
This award highlights a player who we’re all looking at on our rosters and thinking:
On the season, Watson averages 7.8 PPR points per game. He’s run routes on 83% of dropbacks since returning from injury but has just an 18% target rate, including just an 8% mark this past week. Now, some of that is on him and his issues staying healthy; however Watson also has just a 50% catchable target rate this season and only 67% of his targets are marked as easy targets. This is a passing offense that has not gotten going with Jordan Love under center, and we’ve seeing nothing yet to indicate that it will all of the season turn things around.
Watson can still be stashed on your roster due to his clear upside, but it’s hard/impossible to start him right now.
Horizon Award: Marquise Brown - WR, Arizona Cardinals
The Horizon Award is where we look out into the distance and see if we can spot something magical, like a beautiful sunset or a potential fantasy asset. This week, that person is Marquise Brown.
The man named “Hollywood” has been a star for us before in fantasy football but is just WR34 in PPR-leagues right now. Yet, the reason he shows up here is the return of Kyler Murray this week. As the Fantasy Life Utilization Report shows us Brown has a catchable target rate of just 68% this season. That’s, um, not good. It’s also not a shock with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune under center. Still, Brown has the 13th-best target share and 13th-best air yards rate in the league this year. The Cardinals are going to continue to trail this season, and if they keep chucking it up to Brown, but now with a massive quarterback upgrade, we could see some boom weeks coming soon.
That’s it for this week; we’ll see you next Wednesday for another edition of the SAF Awards!
