Earlier this week, I published my Way Too Early: Players to Target in 2024 article. While we’re only days removed from the end of the 2023 regular season, it’s never too early to reflect on the year that was and note players who stood out to us.
This time, we’ll be going in the opposite direction. For every player who impressed us last season, just as many players left us filled with regret. It’s the nature of the beast known as fantasy football.
As is the case every season, we saw multiple players hit walls that came out of nowhere. Fantasy football aficionado and Chargers running back Austin Ekeler may have been the poster child for this in 2023. I’ll touch more on this later. In other instances, we have players who excelled in a given season but will see inflated ADPs as a result and thus must be avoided at all costs.
In hopes of avoiding fantasy disasters in 2024, I’ll look to highlight a handful of players who experienced both highs and lows in 2023 and why I’ll be avoiding them next season.
NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.
Quarterbacks
Will Levis (TEN)
Of the second-year quarterbacks, I expect to take a significant leap in 2024; you can count me off the Will Levis train. The No. 33 overall pick in last year’s draft made nine starts for the Titans this season, throwing for 1,808 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions while completing 58.4 percent of his passes. Amongst qualified quarterbacks (min. 10 attempts/gm), Levis ranked 52nd in completion percent, 34th in QBR (84.2), and 56th in fantasy points over expected (-13.1).
His 1.6 percent interception rate would lead us to believe he was skilled at limiting turnovers, but Levis’ turnover-worthy play rate of 4.5 percent ranked 16th highest among quarterbacks. His 69.1 percent adjusted completion percentage ranked near the bottom.
Levis’ rocket arm makes him a player people want to believe in, but the red flags that plagued his college profile showed up through his nine starts on the season.
Perhaps he will improve on his rookie campaign, but it’s hard to imagine any amount of fantasy consistency next season.
Brock Purdy (SF)
At the risk of wrongly being labeled a Brock Purdy hater, I can’t help but put him on this list.
Let the record show that I’m a fan of Purdy and his rise from 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant to a 2023 MVP candidate, but I am mildly concerned about his fantasy outlook in 2024. Granted, I won’t be doing a complete fade on Purdy, but his ADP will be one I watch closely throughout the offseason.
Purdy was wildly effective as a passer in 2023, ranking first among qualified QBs in YPA (9.6) while tying for the second-highest big-time throw rate (5.8 percent) and finishing eighth in aDOT (8.6). I can’t say anything bad about Purdy’s impressive play, but I question what would happen if his efficiency dipped in 2024.
Since the league switched to a 17-game season in 2021, Purdy’s 21.4 fantasy points per game ranks 24th among the 36 highest-scoring QBs on a points-per-game basis (min. eight games played). When looking at expected points per game among that group, Purdy’s 15.4 EP/gm ranks among the lowest of the group. Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa (2022) are the only two quarterbacks in the group to average less than 18 EP/gm among fantasy QB1s over that span.
Additionally, Purdy’s 95.3 fantasy points over expected are the most of the group and 24.1 more than the second-place finisher, Patrick Mahomes (2022).
Purdy is great. I am by no means fully out on him, but he’s a quarterback who will likely go as a top-12 fantasy option in 2024. If his ADP creeps inside of that range, I will, in all likelihood, consider other options within his range.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (LAC)
Things went awry for Austin Ekeler quickly in 2023. After spending all offseason pushing for a new contract from the Chargers or another team, 2022’s fantasy RB1 in fantasy points per game (22.3) finished this season as the RB20 in fantasy points per game (13.8) and really saw his production take a nose dive in the second half of the season.
Below are his splits from Weeks 1-9 compared to what he provided in Weeks 10-18.
Ekeler wasn’t winning anybody a fantasy championship in 2023, as he managed just two top-24 PPR finishes in his final nine games of the season.
As if that’s not bad enough, Ekeler’s efficiency all but hit rock bottom. Among 49 running backs with 100-plus carries this season, here’s where Ekeler ranked in a handful of efficiency metrics.
| Category | Rank | |
| YPC | 3.5 | 42nd |
| YCO/ATT | 2.63 | 40th |
| Breakaway Rush % | 17.3% | 29th |
| Fantasy Points Per Touch | 0.84 | 20th |
Ekeler’s 0.84 points per touch tied with James Cook, but that was largely buoyed by his work in the passing game. As a rusher, Ekeler ranked 45th in fantasy points over expected on his rush attempts.
Now set to be a free agent this offseason, Ekeler will be 29 come Week 1 and is well past the age where running backs begin to decline. His decline has already started. Any ADP inside the top 24 running backs will be too rich for me. Even a top-36 ADP could prove too pricey for the former fantasy darling.
Brian Robinson (WSH)
My relationship with Brian Robinson has come a long way. In the early days of 2022, when the Commanders used a third-round pick on him, he was one of my favorite late-round picks in best ball drafts. I knew Ron Rivera couldn’t help but play his big, bad Alabama running back, and by the end of that season, Robinson had totaled 205-797-2 on the ground.
Entering 2023 as the Commanders’ lead back, Robinson was all but a lock to lead the team in touches, and with Eric Bieniemy in town, a top-24 finish felt well within his range of outcomes. Robinson hit that mark, finishing as the RB21 in fantasy points per game (13.5), but he ran hotter than the sun in the passing game to help get that done.
Among 43 running backs with at least 30 targets, Robinson’s negative 1.2 aDOT ranked 36th in the league, while his 11.4 YAC/REC ranked first in the group. His 412 yards after catch were only 46 fewer than Christian McCaffrey, who caught 31 more passes than Robinson.
Robinson’s eight receptions of 20+ yards were second-most in the league by a running back, trailing only Rachaad White (10). His 232 yards on those eight receptions made up 63 percent of his total receiving yards on the season, as he finished the year with a line of 36-368-4 through the air.
There’s still a path for Robinson to have fantasy success in 2024. An improved offense led by a better quarterback and new head coach/OC will get things moving in the right direction and could lead to more offensive success and red zone visits. In 2023, the Commanders ranked 20th in red zone attempts (49), while Robinson ranked 29th in rush attempts inside opponents’ five-yard lines with eight. That number should see a boost next season.
With that said, I expect Robinson’s receiving line to look a little more “normal” and far less efficient for a back who was 25th in receptions.
Javonte Williams (DEN)
A devastating knee injury ended Javonte Williams’ 2022 season, but to his credit, he battled back to play in 16-of-17 games this season. Unfortunately, his season went about as bad as one could expect.
Among running backs with 100-plus carries Williams averaged a mere 3.6 YPC and ranked 36th of 49 backs in YCO/ATT (2.71). His 12 breakaway runs were good for eighth-most in the league, but it’s hard to get too excited about that number when you realize mid-back Najee Harris had 15 breakaway carries. Williams had a dismal 40.6 percent success rate on his rush attempts and also ranked 32nd in missed tackles forced rate (15.7 percent).
The case for Williams looks more grim when you consider explosive rookie Jaleel McLaughlin looked like the far better player in limited action this season. He should have plenty of opportunities to bounce back in 2024, but he’s at risk of losing his lead role if he struggles early.
Wide Receivers
Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Tyler Lockett will turn 32 in late September and is coming off his worst season of the last six years. Lockett played in all 17 games this season, only to finish with a line of 79-894-5. His 11.3 YPR was the second-lowest mark of his nine-year career, while his 2.8 YAC/REC set a new low.
Lockett and the Seahawks are about to undergo a shift in coaching, with Pete Carroll now out of the picture, which could also work against his 2024 fantasy outlook. First-round rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba is also a safe bet to take a second-year leap after going for 63-628-4. JSN saw only 93 targets in his rookie campaign but was explosive after the catch. His 5.9 YAC/REC tied for 10th with Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle among receivers with 50 or more targets.
While Lockett remains under contract through 2025, Lockett could be overcome by both JSN and D.K. Metcalf next season. Lockett’s 122 targets led the team but were only three more than Metcalf, who was the far more productive player. Lockett won’t be rocketing up draft boards next offseason, but there will likely be younger, more explosive players going within a similar range. I prefer to take shots on those guys.
Courtland Sutton (DEN)
Touchdown regression will be unkind to Courtland Sutton in 2024. He finished this season as the WR36 in fantasy points per game (12.4) and was the WR11 in FPOE (44.3). This is what 10 touchdowns will do for a player who caught only 59 passes for 772 yards on 90 targets.
Among 80 receivers with 50-plus targets this season, Sutton ranked 70th in YAC/REC (2.8) and 41st in YPRR. His 10 touchdowns were three more than his 7.0 expected touchdown total per PFF, while his expected fantasy points per game total sat at 10.3, which tied for 51st among receivers.
If box score scouts are chasing touchdowns and fantasy points in draft lobbies this offseason, Sutton’s ADP could see an unrealistic boost. He’ll be an easy fade for me, especially with Marvin Mims lying in wait.
Yes, I am the unapologetic Marvin Mims truther you were warned about.
Quentin Johnston (LAC)
Injuries to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen should have allowed Quentin Williams to prove his worth as the No. 21 overall pick in this year’s draft. Instead, Johnston was outshined by veteran Joshua Palmer and finished with the fourth-most receiving yards on his team. His 431 yards were only 20 more than tight end Gerald Everett, and Williams would have undoubtedly topped him if not for the torn ACL he suffered in Week 3.
His 14.1 percent targets per route run ranked as the eighth-lowest amongst receivers with 50 or more targets, while his 0.88 YPRR was the sixth worst. Johnston is keeping company with the likes of Alec Pierce, Rondale Moore, Jahan Dotson, and Jonathan Mingo in these categories — players nobody, much less a first-round rookie, wants to be affiliated with.
Williams will be back with the Chargers in 2024, while Allen remains a toss-up, given his salary and the team’s current state. In theory, Johnston would have a chance to enter next season as his team’s WR2, but with Josh Palmer still under contract next season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him outplay Johnston in camp and play opposite Williams in two receiver sets.
Tight Ends
David Njoku (CLE)
The David Njoku breakout with Joe Flacco has been a wildly fun storyline over the past month and a half, but we need to consider just how hot Njoku has been with Flacco under center.
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Njoku is on pace for a 17-game line of 102-1,326-14 on 153 targets. Sorting by receiving yards, here is where that would rank amongst the top-10 tight-end seasons of the last 20 years.
To say Flacco turned Njoku into one of the best tight ends of the last 20 years isn’t hyperbolic. If you sort this list by PPR totals, Njoku’s 318.6 points would only be second to Rob Gronkowski’s 2011 season.
Njoku won’t be in the conversation as the overall TE1 in 2024. Still, we should probably consider what he’s done in two seasons with DeShaun Watson — who is expected to return as the Browns’ starter next season, much to the disappointment of any Njoku/Amari Cooper fantasy manager and probably most Browns fans.
Here are Njoku’s splits with/without Watson since 2022.
The nine fantasy points per game Njoku has averaged with Watson is nearly half of what he’s enjoyed with Flacco this season. This year’s TE15 in fantasy points per game (9.2) was Taysom Hill. In 2022, Dawson Knox was the TE14 at 9.1 fantasy points per game.
While these are all very serviceable numbers, and Njoku is a wildly talented player, he will likely be drafted at his ceiling (with Watson) in 2024. Considering the range he’ll fall in and the similarities between tight ends outside the elite few, Njoku could be an easy fade at ADP if managers buy into this scorching run with Flacco.
