Heading to Memphis this week, TPC Southwind will host a field of 66 golfers at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.
The course has been used on TOUR for decades but it’s only hosted this WGC two times.
TPC Southwind is a par 70 that plays to 7,233 yards. It’s not long but there is water lurking around every corner. If you avoid that trouble, you will also have to deal with tricky bermuda rough and tiny greens.
The combination of the water and bermuda rough makes it vital to hit fairways. Let’s look at performers on similar courses that punish errant tee shots.
Before that, though, let’s see who overperforms on courses with bermudagrass greens.
These two stats should help us dig up some options for building DFS rosters over on FanDuel.
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Bermudagrass Greens
There aren’t that many true bermuda stops on the schedule as most of the early-season events are played when the courses have overseed. That’s not the case this week as TPC Southwind has some of the finest bermuda, adding some comfort to golfers that grew up in the South.
Let’s see who has gained the most strokes per round on courses with bermuda greens, over the last two years:
Rory Mcilroy
Webb Simpson
Justin Thomas
Garrick Higgo
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Brooks Koepka
Collin Morikawa
Xander Schauffele
Bryson DeChambeau
Scottie Scheffler
Viktor Hovland
Daniel Berger
Tyrrell Hatton
Abraham Ancer
Sungjae Im
We can also look at a golfer’s performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
Garrick Higgo
Marc Leishman
Brooks Koepka
Rory Mcilroy
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Webb Simpson
Collin Morikawa
Jim Herman
Billy Horschel
Stewart Cink
Carlos Ortiz
Sungjae Im
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Will Zalatoris
Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Garrick Higgo, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Scottie Scheffler, and Sungjae Im.
Higgo is an interesting name because his sample is smaller than the others on the list. We saw him win on bermuda at Congaree just a few months ago.
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Missed Fairway Penalty
If you head to the interview archives at TPC Southwind, it won’t take you long to find a quote about the importance of finding fairways here.
“If you’re not hitting fairways, you’re going to shoot over par, no question. And if you’re hitting fairways, you can attack this golf course.” -Tony Finau
“You need to hit fairways, you need to hit greens. It sounds very, very obvious, but I’ve played a lot of places where you don’t need do that and you can still score.” -Matthew Fitzpatrick
“You’ve just got to hit fairways on this golf course. You put it in the rough and you’re going to have a difficult time. It’s all about positioning yourself off the tee.” -Brooks Koepka
Here are the top performers per round, when playing courses with a big penalty for missing the fairway, over the last two years:
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Brooks Koepka
Jason Kokrak
Rory Mcilroy
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Louis Oosthuizen
Justin Thomas
Patrick Reed
Bryson DeChambeau
Will Zalatoris
Webb Simpson
Scottie Scheffler
Brian Harman
Viktor Hovland
We can also look at a golfer’s performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
Jason Kokrak
Si Woo Kim
Brooks Koepka
Jim Herman
Collin Morikawa
Will Zalatoris
Lee Westwood
Brian Harman
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Phil Mickelson
Louis Oosthuizen
Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Matthew Wolff
Sungjae Im
Overlap List: the names that show up on both lists include Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka, Jason Kokrak, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Louis Oosthuizen, Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler, and Brian Harman.
This is basically a list of who does well in majors. That’s not a coincidence as most course setups at majors are designed to punish poor tee shots. There are also some “inaccurate” drivers on the list but sometimes knowing a bad drive is more penalizing forces them to club down and take those big misses out of the equation, actually improving their overall performance in the process.
FanDuel Focus
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,000): The Englishman has a simple game plan at TPC Southwind but it works. “I think I figured out how to play this golf course, I know what I need to do. You need to hit fairways, you need to hit greens. It sounds very, very obvious, but I’ve played a lot of places where you don’t need do that and you can still score. So it’s a great golf course. You’ve got to think your way around and you’ve got to be committed to the right shots.” He’s posted top 10s in both appearances here.
Scottie Scheffler ($10,500): He shows up on both overlaps lists this week. He’s already established himself as a big-game hunter. Is that because of dismisses the pressure or is it because of the way courses are set up at bigger events? Maybe a bit of both. He missed the cut in his 2014 debut at TPC Southwind but improved with a solo 43rd in 2018 and secured a solo 15th last year.
Good luck with your lineups this week and check back tomorrow for some more course-fit analysis.
