The Waste Management Phoenix Open returns to TPC Scottsdale with Hideki Matsuyama as the defending champion. Here is a preview and power ranking to get you off and running.
Among the “regular” PGA TOUR stops, this one ranks among the best on many a list. The reason is one hole. The par-3 16th hole. It is essentially a stadium, surrounded by luxury boxes and over-served fans. Everyone from corporate executives to Arizona State students will add to the ambiance.
TPC Scottsdale is a par-71 layout, stretching out to 7,216 yards and featuring three par 5s, 11 par 4s and a quartet of par 3s. It should be noted that the par-4 17th is reachable with a strong tee shot. While all par 5s are reachable by the moderate-to-longer players, they are not without out their obstacles.
Historically, TPC Scottsdale has favored the long hitters. There are probably several reasons. In addition to making the par 5s play a little easier, there are several lengthy par 3s and par 4s that would be easier with a little extra pop. There are also holes where strategically placed bunkers aren’t in play for bombers. The par-4 18th is the perfect example. Bombers can carry the entire water and the bunker just above the water, whereas a player of average length must navigate a landing zone to the right of the water and between a number of bunkers.
In general, ball-strikers also tend to show up more than smooth putters. That may point to the risk-reward nature of the course and the rewards coming as a result of tee-to-green play.
Expect the large crowds to go crazy for last week’s winner, Jon Rahm. Rahm is an Arizona State product that contended to the tune of a T5 in 2015. His applause will likely only be rivaled by Phil Mickelson. Any other Arizona State alum will also garner plenty of attention, so Chez Reavie fan clubs may come out of the woodwork.
With that as the backdrop, here is this week’s power ranking!
1. Hideki Matsuyama – I would compare Matsuyama at TPC Scottsdale to Jordan Spieth at Augusta National. It’s love at first sight. Matsuyama has gone T4-T2-Win in his three visits to the Arizona desert. Given his play across the globe the past six months, there is simply no one out there that could possible trump him.
2. Jon Rahm – In a vacuum, he’s a great play. A T5 in his only start here matched with a win last week is tasty. We’ve already seen the example where Kyle Stanley carried the momentum of a P2 in the Farmers over to a win in this event, so why not Rahm? Potential yellow flags loom. Will he be focused after his breakthrough win last week, or will he have a figurative hangover in his old college town? There will be plenty of distractions.
3. Ryan Moore – He’s a solid play here, with top 20s in his last four visits here and having made nine of 11 cuts. He’s also learned how to space out his schedule better over the last few years to maximize his output when he does play.
4. Justin Thomas – The knock is the course history. A T17-MC record isn’t normally worthy of a top-five spot. That said, is there anyone hotter to start 2017? Besides that, his ability to launch tee shots into orbit fit him into the J.B. Holmes, Kyle Stanley and Brooks Koepka mold of past winners.
5. Phil Mickelson – Three wins and 10 top 10s. A near miss on a 59 watch. Loud crowds yelling on Lefty. This is an absolute dream for Phil. This would be too much for many players, but right up his alley.
6. Jordan Spieth – He tied for seventh here in 2015, which was his only attempt in the WMPO. That’s good and bad. Given what he did in 2015, that may have been about his worst start of that season. He’s also a bit of a questionable fit relative to past winners, but his class should overcome. To be clear, he’s not a OAD play. Heck, he’s maybe not even a Yahoo! burn. But, he is a candidate for a top 10.
7. Brooks Koepka – Followed up a win in 2015 with a T41 last year. That’s an acceptable fade for a defending champion, and one that shouldn’t concern us too much. A missed cut last week is the real reason he isn’t in the top five.
8. Bubba Watson – This is complicated. Personally, I think Bubba has sort of checked out on trying to be an elite golfer. He fell in love with being a vice captain in the Ryder Cup, he’s playing pink balls from a company that nobody else plays, etc., etc. History tells us this is a great fit for Bubba. He’s 9/10 with runner-ups in 2014 and 2015 to go with a total of four top 10s and seven top 25s. I just have no idea where his head’s at.
9. Rickie Fowler – Made six of eight cuts, with two runner-ups including last year. Enters off a missed cut last week. He’s a wildcard. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he missed the cut, or if he contended and won.
10. Keegan Bradley – He’s made four of five cuts here, all going for top 25s. He’s also returning to form in 2016-17 after a terrible 2015-16. Everything is coming together for at least a fifth top 25 in the WMPO.
11. J.B. Holmes – Two-time winner of this event can’t fall any lower than this spot. He’s not bringing his A-game of late, but perhaps that doesn’t matter. Also scored a T6 at TPC Scottsdale last year.
12. Patrick Rodgers – Was in the hunt for his first PGA TOUR win last week before Jon Rahm ran away from the field on the last six holes. Tied for 17th here in 2016, so don’t sleep on him.
13. Kyle Stanley – The 2012 winner has a modest record here, going three-for-five with no other notable finishes. That said, he’s playing much more like the 2012 version of himself of late. His T14 last week at Torrey Pines was his fourth top 25 in six starts this season.
14. Patrick Reed – Sort of a token pick in the latter half of the top 15. His history is unimpressive, but not all that bad. It’s a nod to his ability and his history of being able to get hot and go low.
15. Scott Piercy – Course-history buffs will love his record here. He’s made seven of eight cuts with three top 10s and five top 25s. A third-place finish in 2013 is the highlight.
Check out all of the Rotoworld staff picks in this week’s Playing the Tips. Best of luck to all!
