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Three more points for the Vancouver Canucks Elias Pettersson, bringing him up to 13 goals at 5v5 and 26 overall in 2021-22. It may not be enough of a run to get into the playoffs, but the Canucks have made a massive turnaround since the coaching change that saw Bruce Boudreau replace Travis Green.
Entering Tuesday night’s game against the Vegas Golden Knights, Elias Pettersson at 5v5 recorded (13-6-29) since returning from a two-game absence in mid-March. His play in this recent stretch has drawn much praise including Twitter lighting up over his individual and line’s performance against the Vegas Golden Knights.
The six goals represent 46% of the 13 goals he’s scored all season long. Every goal scored came under new coach, Boudreau’s watch. Under Travis Green, he had recorded two assists, one primary and one secondary.
Many things have changed with Pettersson recently, including a new responsibility at 4v5. Before we explore that, the coaching change in Vancouver had a profound shift in the clubs immediate fortunes and puts into perspective that even with a similar roster, the results could be much better.
Entering Tuesday’s game, Boudreau had a record of 27-13-8 in 48 games, an exceptional change of fortune from incumbent Travis Green’s 8-15-2 record in 2021-22.
Pettersson’s results under both coaches show a stark contrast (not including Tuesday night vs Vegas).
Take note of the uptick in 4v5 time under new management. The individual point percentage tells a similar tale, where he wasn’t contributing much at 5v5 scoring under Green (earned a point on 28.6% of on-ice goals at 5v5), and being in on almost three quarters of the on ice goals (73.9%) since the change.
Clearly still hampered by a hyper-extended wrist that required surgery and shut his 2020-21 season down, in addition to contract negotiations that ate into preseason, 2021-22 was posing challenges before the puck dropped. He carried that burden into the first half of the season and the results were poor. The former Calder Trophy winner went into more detail here, including this little bit of info:
A carousel of linemates provided less stability, until Boudreau stepped in, albeit he isn’t averse to mixing up his lines either. Stability and focused responsibility has paid off, and this is evident in his season split into quarters. Aside from two third quarter games, he’s dressed in every regular season game in 2021-22.
At the top the chart shows Pettersson’s goal scoring at 5v5, beginning with a zero first quarter, followed by three quarters into which his real goals outperformed his expected goals. Five goals in the fourth quarter (11 games played) were scored with a 25% individual shooting percentage is clearly unsustainable. The pace is attributed to an upward regression, where he’s finally got the momentum swinging for him after a brutal start.
The bottom chart in the image above outlines box score numbers with the diamond signifying individual point percentage (IPP). The difference between the first and fourth quarters also show that he’s been more involved on the ice to achieve those results.
Visually, the five game moving average in goals and points as well as his individual high danger and overall scoring chances are plotted game by game below, with the split in coaches shown. Individual scoring chances picked up to running levels at a consistent average of two per game despite the recent dip towards the end of March.
Those results are indicative of the team level improvement as well, showing how expected goals for per 60 minutes, or the rate of quality shots per 60 minutes improved under Boudreau. The chart below shows Pettersson’s on-ice results at 5v5, in five-game moving averages for expected goals for and against per 60 (quality shots for and against), while the thicker broken line outlines the five-game moving average of on-ice shooting percentage – which has been riding a heater as of late.
Using the game log data via Natural Stat Trick not including Tuesday night’s game versus Vegas, overall in 2021-22, he’s been pointless for the longest span of 15 consecutive games, and 28 games without a goal – that began coincidentally to start the season.
Longest streaks are summarized in the table shown below, along with an accompanying table indicating the amount of games he recorded events in accordance to the number in the top row. For instance, Pettersson had five games without a Corsi event (shot attempts) recorded, 18 with one event, and seven games with five or more events.
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POWER KILLING IT
Utilization is a key element for stars and the modern game is expanding utilization. New ideas are infiltrating coaching staffs, like pulling the goaltender earlier when down a goal or two in the third period, or using five forwards on the power play.
Putting players into positions to exploit their talent are instrumental for their personal success and for overall team success. Below notice once again the uptick in 4v5 time on ice – the final bar to the right of the graph. Pettersson’s averaging 1.59 points per 60 minutes while killing penalties for the Canucks, something he never did under Green at all.
In 37 minutes this season at 4v5, he’s scored once and generated five scoring chances while on the ice, but it’s less about the results now as it is establishing that he can be productive in that role and with his finesse skill set, can be a lethal foil when shorthanded.
Also of note is the contrast in 5v5 and 5v4 points per game results. In 2021-22 his 1.44 pts/60 at 5v5, is the lowest of his career for the reasons we’ve established above. The contrast is at 5v4 where his 6.27 pts/60 are the best of his career. The expectation is that balance is attained with a proper regression result upwards at 5v5 to get closer to his 2.5 pts/60 career average, while the erratic nature of 5v4 play supplementing the even strength results. Add some productivity as he gets more comfortable as penalty killer, and the Canucks implement a more dangerous ‘power kill’ mentality.
With a valiant run to stay in a competitive position and hopefully snag a wild card spot, the Canucks seem to have fallen just short of the task as we edge closer to the end of the season.
The pressure is off and decisions can be made to rest up the wrist if there are any lingering effects. The alternative will be to further test the young Swede’s boundaries in an effort to elevate his game.
I would expect a career year in 2022-23, having healed the wrist properly, reset with a new contract in hand and refreshed competitively with an influx of new ideas and bench management.
