Analyzing affiliated prospects (drafted by an NHL team) and trying to project how they will play as an NHL regular in the seasons just following their draft year is complicated by the varying paths taken by the players. In the case of the Canadian junior leagues (WHL, OHL, QMJHL), they will either graduate directly to the NHL, or play in their respective CHL leagues against other teenagers. With the numerous restrictions, league shutdowns, and other reasons brought on by the global pandemic we are getting a rare chance to see how these Canadian teenagers compete against pros in the closest league to the NHL, their farm teams in the AHL.
The results to date have been remarkable and Brock Otten outlines their impact on one team in particular, the Chicago Wolves, below in our ‘Prospects in the News” feature. Brock is embarking on a seven-part series on www.mckeenshockey.com examining 28 teenage prospects from the OHL, looking at where we left them last, and how they are now performing in the AHL. The first article can be found here for free and includes video tape to go along with the analysis.
Kent Johnson is drawing a lot of attention from scouts in his draft year. Not only for his obvious offensive gifts, but is also guaranteed many eyeballs by playing on a powerhouse Michigan team that features another two first round hopefuls for the 2021 NHL Draft, Matt Beniers and Owen Power, ranked first and second overall respectively in our most recent rankings found here. Our Director of Prospect scouting, Ryan Wagman, takes a close look at the somewhat polarizing pick, who many see as a lock for the top ten alongside his teammates, but brings some question marks as to how high he will ultimately be taken on draft day. As always, the profile is followed by a link to our previous 2021 NHL Draft eligibles in this series from past NBC Edge Prospect Watch columns.[[ad:athena]]
Enjoy.
The McKeen’s team are scouting and writing about prospects all season long and provide in-depth reports on our website: www.mckeenshockey.com
Prospects in the News: OHL Stars shine in unprecedented AHL debuts
By Brock Otten
Seth Jarvis, RW-C (Carolina – NHL – drafted 1st round, #13)
2019-20 Portland Winterhawks, WHL, 58GP-42G-56A-98PTS
2020-21 Chicago Wolves, AHL, 9GP-7G-4A-11PTS
Phil Tomasino, C-RW (Nashville – NHL – drafted 1st round, #24)
2019-20 Oshawa Generals – Niagara Ice Dogs, OHL, 62GP-40G-60A-100PTS
2020-21 Chicago Wolves, AHL, 9GP-4G-5A-9PTS
Ryan Suzuki, C, (Carolina – NHL – drafted 1st round, #28)
2019-20 Barrie Colts – Saginaw Spirit, OHL, 44GP-18G-40A-58PTS
2020-21 Chicago Wolves, AHL, 11GP-3G-3A-6PTS
Jamieson Rees, C-LW (Carolina – NHL – drafted 2nd round, #44)
2019-20 Sarnia Sting, OHL, 39GP-18G-43A-61PTS
2020-21 Chicago Wolves, AHL, 10GP-3G-2A-5PTS
On February 5th, the 2021 AHL season kicked off, facing similar challenges just like every other professional sports league in North America due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The 28 teams that opted in would play 28 regular season games, with no current plans for a postseason. With the NHL expanding rosters, including a taxi squad, the depth of the AHL certainly would get hit hard. Thankfully, it was ruled that WHL and OHL players from the 2001 and 2002 birth years would be allowed to play in the league until their respective leagues started up. Of course, this is abnormal, as due to the agreement between the AHL and the CHL, players under 20 are not eligible to play in the AHL (or ECHL) unless they have accrued four seasons of CHL hockey.
With the opportunity available and many AHL teams having the need for more bodies, 44 OHL and WHL players have skated in a regular season game thus far. However, these teenagers are doing more than just “skating” in these games. They are excelling. At different points this season, a teenager has led the AHL in scoring, goal scoring, and defensive scoring. As of writing this, 12 players are averaging over 0.70 points per game and seven are averaging a point per game. It is certainly impressive to see these kids finding success when they otherwise would not have been afforded the opportunity.
Perhaps no team has taken advantage of this opportunity to ice U20 players more than the Chicago Wolves. An affiliate of the Carolina Hurricanes and Nashville Predators this year, they have utilized the talents of Seth Jarvis, Phil Tomasino, Ryan Suzuki, and Jamieson Rees. All four are highly touted prospects and all four have not only played regularly, but they have played extremely well, combining for 17 goals in 11 games. The Chicago Wolves are currently the highest scoring team in the AHL and sit in first in the Central Division, partially thanks to the contributions of those four players.
Jarvis, the most recent 13th overall selection at the NHL Draft, was leading the AHL in scoring at different points this season. Before heading back to Portland for the WHL season (the Winterhawks start their season on March 18), Jarvis had 7 goals and 11 points in 9 games. The Carolina Hurricanes top prospect showed an ability to dominate shifts, playing in all situations. He scored on the powerplay. He scored a short-handed goal. He elevated the play of those around him. In essence, he looked every bit a future star for the Hurricanes. At the heart of Jarvis’ game is his high-end hockey sense and processing ability. Combine that with his quickness and competitiveness and you have a fully engaged two-way forward. Playing center, Jarvis drove the pace of play and was every bit as noticeable without the puck as he was with it. Needless to say, he has set himself up nicely for a monster WHL season with Portland, riding a confidence high after playing well against men. With a strong WHL performance and another offseason dedicated to conditioning improvements, Jarvis should be able to push for a roster spot in Carolina as early as next season.
Tomasino, a Nashville Predators first round selection in 2019, has looked equally as impressive for the Wolves. Splitting the 2019/20 season between Niagara and Oshawa, Tomasino was one of only four OHL’ers to hit the 100-point mark in a breakout season. Taking on responsibility in all situations, Tomasino emerged as one of the OHL’s best and most complete players. His pace of play is tremendous, and it makes him so dangerous in transition. Fresh off a terrific performance for Team Canada at the World Junior Championships, Tomasino stepped right into Chicago’s lineup and became an immediate impact player. Averaging a point per game, Tomasino has been a fixture in the Wolves’ top six and on their powerplay. All of his strengths as a player continue to shine through; a terrific sign for Nashville as it pertains to the translation of his game to the pro level. Playing primarily on the right wing, Tomasino has looked electric in transition, using his speed and creativity to push the pace, in turn creating scoring chances for he and his linemates. His hands are so good in tight spaces, and even in the face of quicker and stronger defenders, he is coming out on top when heavily pressured. His attention to detail and effort in all three zones will help him move quickly through the Nashville system. Look for a more complete breakdown of Tomasino’s performance in the AHL thus far at McKeen’s Hockey, as we will be publishing a seven-part series looking at the 28 OHL players playing in the AHL this season.
Suzuki, the younger brother of Montreal Canadiens forward Nick Suzuki, was a first-round selection of Carolina in 2019. Much like Tomasino, he is coming off a performance at the World Junior Championships for Canada, where he played a depth role. However, he is certainly taking on more than a depth role with the Wolves thus far. He has been centering the team’s third line and seeing significant powerplay time. All six of his points thus far have been primary, alluding the impact that he is having on the ice, not a passenger, but a driver. His vision with the puck is terrific and he is showing the confidence to slow the game down, allowing those passing lanes to open up for him, even if it means taking a hit to make a play. We are also seeing Suzuki battle hard for space and for pucks, something that he greatly improved upon last year. He may not be winning all his battles, but the effort level is there. The Carolina Hurricanes would likely prefer Suzuki to shoot the puck more, as developing more confidence in his ability to shoot is an identifiable area of growth. However, his strengths as a playmaker have shone through and he is competing hard and excelling against larger and more experienced defenders; certainly a positive step forward in his development.
Rees, a competitive, physical, and skilled center, was the 44th overall selection by Carolina in 2019. Playing for a poor Sarnia Sting team, Rees was still one of the best offensive players in the OHL last year. He wore a letter for the Sting and his 1.56 points per game was just outside the Top 10 for the league. We saw his confidence as a puck handler and play creator grow substantially. Given Chicago’s depth at center and his inexperience, Rees has been lining up at left wing for the Wolves thus far. Like Jarvis, he has been seeing action in all situations, playing on the powerplay and penalty kill. His speed and tenacity, has transitioned seamlessly to the pro level, allowing him to make an impact in all three zones. He is leading the charge in transition and is having a lot of success with his zone entries, driving wide before cutting into the middle, just as he did at the OHL level. He is creating scoring chances with his ability to protect the puck while playing with pace and has really earned the trust of the coaching staff already with his high energy level. While the physical component to his game has not yet been consistently visible in the AHL, it does not change his projection as a pest like player who is difficult to play against.
With Seth Jarvis already returning to the WHL, Chicago Wolves fans should enjoy Tomasino, Suzuki, and Rees while they can. The OHL could announce a return any week now, which would result in them having to leave in order to quarantine before returning to the ice in Ontario. One thing is certain, these four teenagers have certainly proved their worth as NHL prospects with their performances in the AHL this year and it is likely that we see all four in the NHL in the near future. The real question is, what are the Wolves going to do without them when the time comes for them to leave?
2021 NHL Draft Prospect: Johnson brings dynamic offense along with question marks to a stacked Michigan squad.
Kent Johnson
In a draft lacking generational talent, Kent Johnson stands out, even if he is maybe only the fourth or even fifth best freshman on his own collegiate team. Of course, two of those other freshmen were drafted relatively high last year in Brendan Brisson (1st round, Vegas) and Thomas Bordeleau (2nd round, San Jose). And the other two are our top two prospects in the 2021 draft class in Matthew Beniers and Owen Power.
However we rank them, there is no mistaking Johnson’s offensive capabilities, considering he preceded his freshman season in Ann Arbor by leading the BCHL in goals, assists, and points, and being awarded with the league’s MVP and Most Sportsmanlike player awards, as well as being named Top Forward across all of the CJHL leagues. He is also currently second NCAA-wide in freshman scoring, behind only teammate Bordeleau.
At his best, Johnson shows truly dynamic offensive traits. Watch him score the lacrosse goal last year in the BCHL, or his highlight solo rush goal against Minnesota from earlier this year. That last one was especially helpful in showing what he can do at full speed; he got the puck right next to the faceoff dot in his own zone, deked past one forechecker just prior to hitting center ice with a quick forehand-backhand shimmy, pulled off another, more radical forehand-backhand move by the top of the circle in the offensive zone to skate it past a Golden Gopher defender, got to the bottom of the circle still on his backhand and flipped it over the goalie’s shoulder from a pretty oblique angle. Not just any goalie, mind you, but Jack LaFontaine, one of the top goalie’s in college hockey this year.
A solid, if unspectacular skater from a speed perspective, Johnson more than makes up for that with agility and spectacular puck control (which you would have seen by watching clips of the two goals listed above). Even when he can’t outrun a defender to get free, he can pull off a spinorama instead to create room for himself. He reads the opposition defense very well and knows just how and when to strike. That puck control is what allows him to do special things. He can pull off tricky moves with the puck hard by his skates, making the task of stripping it from him without drawing a whistle all the more difficult. He also seems to be most comfortable carrying the puck on his backhand, which is why a lot of his rushes up ice are on the right-hand side, so he can most readily put his body between the opposition and the puck.
Johnson is also liable to shoot the puck from anywhere in the offensive zone, looking to catch the goalie napping. None of this is to imply that he plays for himself, as Johnson is also skilled at creating passes for others and frequently looks to utilize his linemates in the offensive zone. Even though the offensive game has first line attributes, there are still some slight concerns that have us currently leaning towards his teammates Beniers and Power ahead of Johnson in our draft rankings. For starters, Johnson has less of a physical presence. He is 6-1”, but very slight, and he doesn’t have the room to fill out that his teammates do. He is willing to take the puck into dangerous territory but is not nearly so often involved in puck scrums along the walls. So right away, we know that he will need to be linemates with someone who can do that heavy lifting for him. He is also not as strong off the puck, or escaping danger in his own zone, elements that have prevented him from getting more than the odd penalty kill shift with the Wolverines. His all-around game could reasonably improve with experience and added game time in a full, normal season, but it is clear that Johnson does not contribute nearly as much as his highly touted teammates when he isn’t reaching the scoresheet.
The other, really the last, concern I have about Johnson is his inconsistency. Even as he is outscoring Beniers, Beniers averages 0.7 primary points (goals + first assists) per game, including his time with Team USA at the WJC, where he didn’t put up big numbers. Johnson, on the other hand, has 0.54 primary points per game, as he is nearly three times as likely as Beniers to get a second assist on a goal. Another thing I like to look at is who is he producing against. The top teams this year in the Big 10 are Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Against the latter two teams, Johnson has amassed two goals and two primary assists in eight games. Beniers put up two goals and four primary assists in six games against those other two powerhouses, having missed the first two Minnesota games due to the WJC.
Let’s be clear, though. To say that I prefer Beniers is no real slight to Johnson. The skills and track record are both high end. But going back over the past few draft classes, his profile looks like the likes of Sam Steel, or Dominik Bokk, or Tyson Jost, or Vitali Abramov. The book has not yet been closed on any of those four guys, but I would hesitate to take any of them in a top ten of any re-draft. Johnson could definitely surpass any or all of those guys, but I am more comfortable making that bet between picks 10-15 than I am between 1-10.
PAST NBC EDGE MCKEEN’S 2021 NHL DRAFT PROSPECT REPORTS – In this weekly column we cover an NHL Draft prospect. Check out what we have written to date here listed by our most recent ranking.
#1 - Matthew Beniers C, University of Michigan, NCAA, C, 6’1” 175 lbs
#2 – Owen Power, D, University of Michigan, NCAA, C, 6’6” 215 lbs
#3 – Luke Hughes, D, USNTDP U18, D, 6’2” 175 lbs
#4 - Jesper Wallstedt G, Lulea, Sweden, G, 6’3” 200lbs
#5 – Simon Edvinsson, D, Vasteras, Allvenskan, 6’5”, 200lbs
#6 - Brandt Clarke, D, Nove Zamky, Slovakia, D, 6’1” 180 lbs
#9 – Aatu Raty, D, Kärpät, Liiga, Finland, 6’2” 185lbs
#12 - Kent Johnston, C, University of Michigan, NCAA, C, 6’1” 170 lbs
