Apologies if this column comes off as a bit crammed, but I spent my original allotted time for writing toggling with my FPL.com team and fighting with myself over using my Wildcard (FYI, the Wildcard won and I kind of almost regret it already). But the beauty of FPL Draft is that we don’t have any of these bailouts, just good old-fashioned fantasy dumpster diving and bargain hunting.
But now, in FPL Draft leagues, is the time to be just as frenetic with regards to the waiver wire before the big bargains are gone. For example, last week’s recommendations in Ryan Fraser and Ricardo Pereira have more than doubled, putting their ownership at 70 percent and 54 percent, respectfully. Meanwhile, players who were widely available just two weeks ago, like Theo Walcott, Roberto Pereyra and Ruben Neves among others, are nearly impossible to find on a waiver wire. Point taken: Get them now before they’re gone.
Last week, I received a message from a long-time reader looking for feedback on a trade offer that was presented to him. For trading Harry Kane and Mesut Ozil or Richarlison, Hadar would receive Sergio Aguero and Dele Alli. I was all for the deal, considering Kane and Aguero to be a wash (even with Aguero’s injury history), but valuing Alli much more than a fledgling Ozil in a new system under Unai Emery that doesn’t agree with him. But I told Hadar to hold onto Richarlison at all costs; although the red card hurts, he’ll be back and he’ll be a fantasy star this year. What would you have done if this was your team?
Without further delay, here are the bargain hits and misses ahead of Gameweek 4. I’m welcoming all suggestions and debates on Twitter (@gastelumEPL)— I would love to include your thoughts here in this column next week and throughout the season.
All of the stats used in this column come straight from the good folks at Fantasy Premier League on a weekly basis. Our friends at FPL.com take the data from a thousand private leagues, all of which consist of eight teams, in order to minimize the impact of data from public leagues where autopick drafting is more prevalent.
Of course, it’s just a sample size, so it’s not hard and fast; but it should give us a good idea of the tendencies of FPL Draft leagues and managers. Remember, the waivers deadline is a full 24 hours before the first game of the week, and the lowest-placed team in your league gets the first pick.
One-week Pick (OWP) - When a regular is suspended for a match, ineligible to face his parent club as a loanee, or his fill-in looks to deputize for only a week while the regular nurses a minor injury, this is where to find some replacements. They should only be looked at when you really need help at a position that week alone, and not looked at as long term plays. Best for salary cap leagues with unlimited transactions, not so much for draft leagues.
Short-term Pick (STP) - When a regular faces a multi-game suspension, an injury layoff lasting 2-5 weeks, international commitment, etc., this is where you look for players that can offer more beyond one week but do have a limited shelf life in most cases. Worth using a waiver claim or spending a bit more of your free agent budget (FAAB) than the One Week Buys. Can be useful in salary-cap format as long as you are comfortable with possibly needing to transfer them out in a few weeks.
Long-term Pick (LTP) - When a regular is either facing a month or more out or has lost his spot seemingly to someone better, these are the players that emerge as potential long-term investments and are therefore the most valuable of the group and worth paying up. Great for any format, but especially valuable in draft leagues with limited waiver claims.
BARGAINS:
GK – Neil Etheridge (Cardiff City)
This is more of a cautionary tale than a recommendation; or, maybe, it’s a bit of both, as players don’t just rise from two percent to 48 percent ownership in just two weeks. Let’s start with why: Keepers, especially good ones, are hard to come by in FPL draft where there are only 20 starters for 16 goalkeeper spots on eight teams, so when an undrafted unknown like Etheridge starts to shine, everyone takes notice. Then, when he leads all goalkeepers in points, the mob comes out. The Premier League’s first Filipino player (how cool is that?) has recorded two straight clean sheets and has shown his expertise as a penalty stopper with two penalty saves to bring him to 28 points on the season. That showing is worthy of the hype.
But, those performances came against Bournemouth, Newcastle and Huddersfield Town. Here’s why you shouldn’t pick Etheridge: Up next for Cardiff City is Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Burnley, Spurs, Fulham, and Liverpool. Against great teams, you want someone in goal who makes a ton of saves (like Lukasz Fabianski wherever he plays, hence why he was at the top of the league in points last season), but Etheridge is currently 10th in saves despite being first in points. If you had him since Gameweek 2, which is unlikely, kudos to you, but now is not the time to waste a precious waiver claim on him, unless you have no one else to prioritize and want to keep him away from a rival in your league who has goalkeeping trouble.
DEF – Sokratis (Arsenal)
A scary head injury to one of my early picks for the year in Michael Keane, who scored a goal just before, has me searching for a new defender; and in FPL Draft, that has led me to an undervalued Greek international in north London. While other starters at Arsenal are mostly unavailable in FPL Draft leagues, Sokratis remains a bargain as a starting defender for a top-six side, available in 40 percent of our latest sample of FPL Draft leagues. Sokratis has played all 90 minutes in each of the Gunners’ opening three matches and looks to have earned the trust of Unai Emery for that final defensive spot with his poise and experience after five years of Champions League and Bundesliga action with Borussia Dortmund.
But, like Neil Etheridge, what decides my recommendation is the club’s upcoming schedule, which includes Cardiff, Newcastle, Everton, Watford, Fulham, Leicester City and Crystal Palace all through the end of October, right around when Laurent Koscielny is expected to return from an Achilles injury and regain his starting spot by the end of the year. For that reason, I’ll list Sokratis as a short-term option through this part of the schedule where I expect Arsenal to rake in some defensive points.
MID – Andre Schurrle (Fulham)
After it was announced that he would be returning to the Premier League, and once again to west London, Andre Schurrle was immediately earmarked as a potential bust in fantasy circles without much pretense. After all, he did not receive much playing time at Borussia Dortmund or Chelsea, for that matter, where he recorded eight goals and two assists in 2013/14. But now that he a valued cog, one of the few with Premier League experience, of an upstart team like Fulham, all bets are off; and, as a midfielder playing more as a forward, there is a prime opportunity for FPL Draft managers to pounce on the German’s potential before he is taken in more than just his current rate of 33 percent of FPL Draft leagues.
Last week, Schurrle scored his first goal for the club in a 4-2 win against Burnley, but even more surprising and encouraging was the league-high 11 shots he took in one match—the most by any player in one match in the Premier League since the start of last season—to put him in the top five in the Premier League in shots. While there is some long-term risk with Schurrle, having an attacking midfielder of his caliber as your fourth or fifth midfielder is about as good as you could ask for from the waiver wire. Put your claim in now, before it’s too late.
FWD – Danny Ings (Southampton)
On the subject of former Premier League surprises trying to make a comeback, we have the resurgence of Danny Ings. After a breakout 11-goal, four-assist season in 2014/15 with Burnley, his first ever in the top flight, Ings sputtered at Liverpool after a series of injuries and a lack of playing time. But now the forward has a full, healthy preseason behind him and has been energized by a loan to Southampton, despite nearly just as much competition, where he has started his comeback in encouraging fashion, scoring a goal against Everton in Gameweek 2 and finding himself in the top-10 in the league in both shots and shots on target.
As I mentioned last week, these forwards in the early weeks are going to go fast with FPL Draft managers most active in their search for a quality third forward. Likewise, Ings’ ownership in the last two weeks has tripled to 63 percent, where I expect it to stay until he has a breakout week, which could come this week against Crystal Palace or in a month’s time. The important thing to remember about Ings is that he is still recovering his match fitness over the course of a long season—he was omitted from the League Cup team this week for that very reason. However, his potential and current value should be convincing enough to make the waiver claim this week.
