For the second year in a row, racing fans were treated to an outstanding stretch run in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Sovereignty and Journalism battled down the lane with Sovereignty winning in the final strides by a length and a half. It wasn’t three horses racing down the lane as we had last year, but considering the sloppy track and a 19-horse field, it was pretty cool that two of the most highly regarded horses decided the outcome at the finish.
Now, it’s time to deal with the “800-pound gorilla” in the room, which is the disappointment that some fans might feel that Sovereignty, the Derby winner, will not be in the Preakness, thus eliminating the possibility of a Triple Crown title this year. From the moment they crossed the wire, it became highly unlikely that Sovereignty would run two weeks later. Consider that his owners (Godolphin) take a conservative approach with their horses. Also consider the fact that they had been seeking a Kentucky Derby win for over 20 years, and now that they had one, they were likely to view entering the Preakness as a move that might not have been in the best interest of the horse. Finally, consider the fact that Sovereignty’s trainer, Hall of Famer Bill Mott, is known for taking time with horses. It would have totally been out of character for him to run the horse back in two weeks.
Naysayers might assume that without the Kentucky Derby winner, the Preakness Stakes would be a bland affair. In this case, they couldn’t be more wrong. In fact, the race is shaping up as a fascinating clash between some established horses on the 3-year-old trail and some horses on the rise who come from some of the top trainers in the business. If you’re thinking that this race could be a 2-horse affair between Journalism and Sandman (a tough-trip 7th in Louisville), I suggest you look a little closer.
First, the obvious: When he finished 2nd in the Derby, Journalism did himself proud. He never had raced on a wet track, and his average field size in his previous races was six horses. Nevertheless, he was a constant factor throughout the race, and was denied victory by the fast-closing Sovereignty, who benefitted from a fast pace and the fact that he seemed to like the wet track. Journalism should be a deserving favorite in the Preakness, as he was in Louisville.
Then there’s Sandman, who was the 2nd choice in the Derby. He endured a couple of bumping incidents in the race and was forced to go 9-wide in the stretch, resulting in a 7th-place finish. Trainer Mark Casse is a very smart horseman, and if he’s coming back on short rest, I would tend to trust his judgment. Casse says the horse has been training well, and the race evidently did not take too much out of him. I would not be surprised to see Journalism and Sandman go to the post as the favorite and second choice once again.
Here’s where things get complicated. What if I told you that Hall of Fame trainers Steve Asmussen, Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher all were saddling horses in the Preakness who are not likely to be the favorite or second choice in the wagering? Let me add that all three of their horses present a profile of improvement in their races, to the degree that it seems they could be ready for this step-up to a Classic event.
I’ll begin with Clever Again, who is trained by the man who has won more races than anyone in North American history. Steve Asmussen may be 0-for-28 in the Kentucky Derby, but his two wins in the Preakness include the stirring win of Rachel Alexandra in 2009, where she beat the boys just 15 days after winning the Kentucky Oaks. Clever Again is a $500,000 yearling purchase who has done little wrong in his three-race career. He started his career with a 2nd-place finish in a 4 ½-furlong maiden race at Keeneland, showing that he would appreciate more distance. Then, he posted consecutive wins in two-turn races. Both wins were at Oaklawn Park, with the first in a maiden race and the second coming in the Hot Springs Stakes. He’s lightly raced but could step up to the level of his competition here.
Then there’s the one and only Bob Baffert, whose eight wins make him the winningest Preakness trainer of all time. Despite announcing that the highly regarded Rodriguez would miss the race because of a foot problem, Baffert still is sending a serious contender. That horse’s name is Goal Oriented, and his goal now is to pull off an upset in the Preakness. Many fans will dismiss him, as he only has two prior starts going into this race. Sometimes, however, a trainer will learn more about a horse from two races than some others would out of six or seven. The first start for Goal Oriented was an easy 6-furlong maiden win on April 6th of this year, which seems awfully late for a horse of this caliber. Then, he ran in an allowance race on the undercard of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. When I did my handicapping for the day, I told a few close friends that he was my best bet of the day, and that he was 4-1 on the morning line. As things turned out, I wasn’t the only “genius” in the crowd, as he was bet down to 6/5 favoritism, and he ran like it, dominating the race on the front end. It was an awesome effort for only the second race of his career. One thing that I probably have in common with Bob Baffert right now is that we don’t know how high the ceiling might be for Goal Oriented.
Finally, there’s the curious case of Todd Pletcher. His Kentucky Derby record is two wins from a record 65 starters, with that high number probably coming from a lot of horses that owners entered for vanity reasons, rather than thinking they had a real chance to win. In the Belmont Stakes, he has posted four wins from 40 starters. The curiosity comes when you look at Pletcher’s record in the Preakness. The man who has won more purse money than any trainer in the history of North American racing has an 0-for-10 record in this race. In River Thames, however, he shows up with a talented horse who skipped the Derby because his owners felt it would be too many races in a short time span. In short, if you are in several prep races for the big one in Louisville, you could exhaust your horse as you’re compiling those Derby prep points. River Thames began his career with two wins, and then he was second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, losing to eventual Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty by only a neck. Then, he was third in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, losing the whole thing by less than a length. His time off since the Blue Grass Stakes should help him here. This is a horse who fits this spot very well, and he should be a good price in the wagering.
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As for the others in the field, I believe that two have an outside chance to hit the board, and two appear to be overmatched. The overmatched horses seem to be Heart of Honor and Pay Billy. Heart of Honor was 2nd in Dubai to Japan’s Admire Daytona, who finished last in Louisville. Pay Billy has done well in small stakes races on the Maryland circuit, but he’s never faced horses of this caliber.
The other two who could hit the board are American Promise and Gosger. Of course, much of the attention for American Promise is because of his legendary trainer, D. Wayne Lukas. After a romping win against questionable competition in the Virginia Derby, American Promise finished 16th in the Derby. He did endure some bumping in the race, but nothing that would normally lead to finishing so far back. Lukas can spring the occasional upset, as he did winning the 2024 Preakness with Seize The Grey, but I’ll take my chances against him in this spot. Gosger enters after winning the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland against a field that was not very strong. He has two wins and a second-place finish in three starts, but he would need to improve significantly to be a major factor here. In short, American Promise and Gosger simply don’t seem to have enough positives on their side for me to rank them in with the top five that I’ve mentioned.
Above all else, I believe that this will not be a “two-horse race,” no matter what the odds board says. Even though the Preakness Media Guide says that in 150 runnings (2 divisions in 1918), the favorites have won 73 times, that is not a sure thing in this race. I will delay betting on the Preakness until I see where the value lies in the odds. My suspicion is that the two horses with big name recognition (Journalism and Sandman) will be overbet. I will look for a price from the Asmussen, Baffert and Pletcher entries, hoping that they will represent the best value. Have some fun betting the Preakness. It’s not the complicated puzzle that the big field in the Derby always presents, but this year, there could be some good stories under the surface.
How do I watch the 2025 Preakness Stakes?
- Date: Saturday, May 17
- Time: Live coverage begins at 2:30 PM ET
- Where: Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland
- TV Channel: NBC, CNBC
- Streaming: Peacock
