We’re through two rounds of the men’s NCAA tournament; now, we (and the teams) get a chance to catch our breath.
These three open days between the end of the Round of 32 and the beginning of the Sweet 16 are filled with intrigue and small sample-size lessons. Who looks like they’re handling the stage better than others? Which favorites look vulnerable? Which lower-seeded teams can continue their unexpected runs?
With that in mind, here is a re-ranking of every team left in the Big Dance, with an emphasis on how these squads have looked in the tournament.
1) 1-seed Arizona
Sweet 16 Matchup: Arkansas
The Wildcats entered the tournament as the 1-seed with the fewest questions surrounding them, and they have played like it so far. Aside from a second-half lull against a good Utah State team, Arizona has breezed through the first two games.
In the first game against Long Island, it was the freshmen leading the way as Brayden Burries, Koa Peata and Ivan Kharchenkov combined for 47 points. When things got tight against Utah State, experienced leaders Jaden Bradley and Motiejus Krivas stepped up. This team comes at you in waves.
2) 2-seed Houston
Sweet 16 Matchup: Illinois
The Cougars are hitting on all cylinders after winning their first two games by 31 points each. As always, their defense is leading the way by allowing just 52 points per game. Combine that with the excellent guard play of Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharpe and Milos Uzan, and you have a team well suited to thrive in the tournament.
Houston’s defense will get its greatest challenge yet against the Illini, who boast the second-ranked offense in the country per KenPom.
3) 1-seed Michigan
Sweet 16 Matchup: Alabama
The Wolverines have had some issues locking in their first-half defense; they allowed 46 points to Howard and needed a late run to enter the break up nine on Saint Louis. However, when you’re averaging almost 100 points per game, you often have time to figure things out.
Michigan’s massive front line (Aday Mara, 7-foot-3; Morez Johnson Jr., 6-foot-9; Yaxel Lendeborg, 6-foot-9) is going to cause issues for anyone they face. The defensive issues shouldn’t last for a team that still ranks second in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
4) 1-seed Duke
Sweet 16 Matchup: St. John’s
Perhaps this is an overreaction to how close the Blue Devils came to losing to 16-seed Siena, but you can clearly see how not having Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba at 100% is hampering them.
Ngongba did play against TCU and made a solid all-around impact, especially during Duke’s second-half run to pull away. Foster reportedly has an “outside chance” to return against the Red Storm, so the Blue Devils could be back near full strength soon. That is a scary proposition for other teams.
5) 2-seed Iowa State
Sweet 16 Matchup: Tennessee
The loss of Joshua Jefferson to an ankle injury caused some concern, but the Cyclones dominated Kentucky anyway, 82-63, in the second round. The expectation is that Jefferson will play against Tennessee. That’s great for Iowa State, as he unlocks their game on both sides of the court with his versatility and strength, but it remains to be seen how affected he will be by that ankle.
Tamin Lipsey was fantastic in Jefferson’s absence, and the Cyclones have been stifling defensively, especially in non-garbage time minutes. They can beat anyone in this tournament.
6) 2-seed Purdue
Sweet 16 Matchup: Texas
The Boilermakers give themselves a chance in every game because of their offensive floor. No one in the country runs a team better than Braden Smith, and Purdue gets into incredible offensive grooves, as they did in the second halves of their games against Queens and Miami (FL).
A Sweet 16 matchup against Texas, the only double-digit seed remaining in the tournament, gives Purdue a great chance at making it to the Elite Eight to play the winner of Arizona-Arkansas.
7) 3-seed Illinois
Sweet 16 Matchup: Houston
Illinois has faced two double-digit seeds in No. 14 Penn and No. 11 VCU, but they dominated those games in the way you would want to see from a title contender. The Illini lit up Penn for 105 points in the first round then showed they can defend as well in a 76-55 victory over VCU.
It will be very entertaining to see how Keaton Wagler performs against Houston’s feisty backcourt. Illinois’ star freshman guard is likely to be a top-10 NBA draft pick and drills pull-up threes like no one’s business.
8) 2-seed UConn
Sweet 16 Matchup: Michigan State
There is something a little bit off about this UConn team, at least as compared to their two juggernaut championship teams. The guard play hasn’t been elite, especially with Silas Demary Jr. dealing with injury recently, and that makes them reliant on Tarris Reed Jr. in the post and Alex Karaban making threes.
Still, the Huskies run pretty offensive sets and can lock down on defense, as they did in their 73-57, second-round victory over UCLA. They are another team that could get better as the tournament goes along.
9) 4-seed Nebraska
Sweet 16 Matchup: Iowa
Nebraska’s Round of 32 victory over Vanderbilt was one of the most entertaining NCAA Tournament games in recent memory. The Cornhuskers and Commodores traded big shot after big shot, and it was impossible not to come away impressed with Nebraska’s resilience and ability to meet the moment.
You could argue that no other team in the tournament has played in a game that reached that high a level, both in execution and drama. That experience could help the Cornhuskers moving forward, but even if it doesn’t, they showed they’re good enough to win a game where an elite opponent is throwing everything at them.
10) 3-seed Michigan State
Sweet 16 Matchup: UConn
This is a potentially harsh placement. After all, the Spartans blew out North Dakota State and then held off Louisville for a decisive win. They have done what was asked of them.
It’s just a little easier to poke holes in Michigan State’s competition. North Dakota State didn’t put up much of a fight, and Louisville was without star freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr. The Spartans are obviously really good, but I want to see how they perform against elite competition as the tournament progresses. This matchup with UConn will be very telling, for both sides.
11) 4-seed Alabama
Sweet 16 Matchup: Michigan
It speaks to the quality of this year’s field that Alabama is this low. Even without Aden Holloway, the Crimson Tide crushed a Hofstra team that could have taken them out of their pace and then embarrassed a Texas Tech squad that has been very competitive this season even with the injuries it has suffered.
Holloway’s absence does have to be taken under account here, but Alabama still has plenty of explosive guard talent. Labaron Philon Jr. dropped a monstrous 29-8-7 line on Hofstra before Latrell Wrightsell went six-of-nine from three en route to 24 points against the Red Raiders.
12) 5-seed St. John’s
Sweet 16 matchup: Duke
Do not overlook the Red Storm in their matchup with the Blue Devils. Rick Pitino’s team is tough as nails, defends with incredible enthusiasm and is riding an eight-game winning streak that has to make it feel like it can beat anyone. It was hard to watch Dylan Darling split the Kansas defense and make a game-winning layup without feeling like St. John’s could be a team of destiny.
Zuby Ejiofor is the leader of this team and sets the tone for their intense style. He will have his hands full with Duke’s frontcourt, but he is more than capable of holding his own against Cameron Boozer and Co.
13) 4-seed Arkansas
Sweet 16 Matchup: Arizona
The Razorbacks were a trendy Final Four pick after their run to the SEC Tournament title, but their defense has continued to disappoint. They were at risk of falling to High Point despite scoring 94 points; now, they get a top-five ranked offense in the mighty Wildcats.
Still, Arkansas has made it to this enthralling matchup and certainly has the capability of winning it. The Razorbacks are averaging 95.5 points per game in the tournament, and Darius Acuff Jr. is one of the most impressive freshman guards to ever come through the SEC. It’s difficult to always need to win in shootouts, but if anyone can do it, it’s this Arkansas group.
14) 6-seed Tennessee
Sweet 16 Matchup: Iowa State
This season has been a mixed bag for the Volunteers. Freshman Nate Ament entered the year with a lot of hype, failed to deliver on it early, then made marked improvements before going down with an ankle injury that he’s still coming back from. They had a lot of bad luck against a top-10 strength of schedule, which helps explain how they ended up at 11 losses.
Ja’Kobi Gillespie is averaging 25 points and 7.5 assists through two tournament games. He is the exact kind of guard who can lead a team in March, especially as Tennessee is allowing 64 PPG and has held both its opponents under 40% field goal shooting. This matchup with Iowa State is going to be as gritty as a game can be.
15) 9-seed Iowa
Sweet 16 Matchup: Nebraska
The Hawkeyes are absolutely nails in the biggest moments. Bennett Stirtz is shooting a ghastly 27.3% from the field in two games, but he continues to make the right plays, and other guys continue to step up. There’s no better example of that than Alvaro Folgueiras, who has scored 14 points in each game and hit the shocking game-winner to upset No. 1 seed Florida.
The Hawkeyes are dangerous because they defend and play at a snail’s pace, leading to close games where they are better at executing. They’re probably too reliant on Stirtz offensively to go much farther, but they have proven they cannot be counted out.
16) 11-seed Texas
Sweet 16 Matchup: Purdue
The Longhorns hung their hat on offense all season. They have been good there, scoring 79 and 74 points in their last two games, but defense has keyed this run from the First Four. Their three wins constitute three of their 15 best performances of the season in terms of opponent points.
All three games have been decided by single digits. That says a lot about the Longhorns’ end-of-game execution, but it also raises the question of when their luck will run out. The more you play in these tight games, the more chances there are for the ball to bounce away instead of to you. In a single-elimination tournament, it just takes one.
