Lucas

Erceg

Carlos Estévez was likely unavailable because of an ankle contusion, but he would have had no business pitching today anyway after giving up six runs last night. The Royals used Matt Strahm in relief of Seth Lugo to get the final two outs of the seventh. John Schneider gave up one run in the eighth to make it a 4-1 game and create the save chance for Erceg, who converted it easily. With Estévez unlikely to reemerge as a useable late-game reliever right away, Erceg is worth rostering everywhere.

If you watched Estévez this spring, you had a pretty good idea this was coming. The 2025 AL saves leader averaged 91.2 mph with his fastball tonight, down 4.7 mph from last year. His hardest pitch, at 92.3 mph, was actually the one Dominic Smith hit for the game-ending grand slam. Smith gave up four hits, all on hard-hit balls, and walked two while getting just one miss on 10 swings. He simply can’t serve as a major league closer until he gets some stuff back, and unless the Royals are blinded by loyalty, they should turn to Matt Strahm and Lucas Erceg, in either order, in the eighth and ninth. We’d grab Erceg first, but best not to write off Strahm. Both pitched scoreless innings tonight, with Strahm getting the seventh and Erceg working the eighth.

Something just isn’t right here, though Estévez keeps pitching anyway. His average fastball was 89.2 mph tonight, down from 95.9 mph last year. His best outing so far saw him average 90.8 mph for the Dominican Republic against Team Israel. He’s been under 90 mph in all three outings in Royals camp. Obviously, he’s not complaining of anything, but it seems like a good idea to stay far away from him in drafts. Lucas Erceg, on the other hand, is worth a late-round pick, even though he hasn’t looked particularly strong himself this spring.

That is better than the 89.0 mph he came in at during his two spring outings for the Royals, but we certainly would have liked to have seen more. Estévez averaged 95.9 mph with his fastball last season, which was already down about one mph from 2024. He’ll probably keep adding from here, but five mph would be pretty drastic. There’s definitely extra reason to fade him in drafts right now and perhaps consider Lucas Erceg as an end-game or a reserve pick.

Erceg’s season is over. The 30-year-old forged a 2.64 ERA in his first full season with the Royals over 61 appearances with a 48/18 K/BB ratio across 61 1/3 innings. Assuming good health, Erceg will be a set-up man for Kansas City again in 2026.

Erceg was able to get a rare save chance and took advantage of the opportunity. He did so by taking advantage of the aggressive Washington hitters, as he needed just seven pitches to get through the outing. Erceg would have fantasy appeal if he got the closing gig, but that’s not going to happen. At least not now.

Ironically, this might actually help Erceg’s future prospects, since Royals losses now make it more likely that Carlos Estévez will be traded at the deadline. Not that Mr. Erceg himself was looking at it that way. Pitching in a 1-1 game, Erceg went walk, double, intentional walk before a two-run double broke open the game. Erceg escaped from there after one more intentional walk, but the damage was done. He’s now issued three intentional walks in two days after never being asked to issue one previously this season. The Marlins are just that intimidating.

Erceg gave up a single with one out, committed an error on a pickoff throw and then walked back-to-back batters before giving up an RBI groundout to tie the game. He escaped without further damage, and the Royals won in the bottom of the ninth, with Carlos Estévez picking up the victory, so it’s not too bad of a blemish for Erceg. He has little chance of overtaking Estévez anytime soon, but there is the chance the Royals could trade Estévez later this month, making Erceg their closer.

Erceg missed just a minimum stint on the injured list while recovering from back inflammation. He should return to a high-leverage arm in the Kansas City bullpen.

Royals manager Matt Quatraro told reporters Erceg will likely be back for Wednesday’s game after looking sharp on Sunday in a scoreless relief outing for Triple-A Omaha. The 30-year-old righty hit the injured list back on May 30 with a lower back sprain. His return will provide a lift to Kansas City’s high-leverage mix.