Tony Stewart was famous for being — depending on your point of view — either a ‘slow starter’ or a driver who didn’t get hot on the track until temperatures rose. But is this just a maxim that’s been repeated so many times that everyone believes it?
And if there are drivers who perform better during certain parts of the season, what might that tell us about the race for the championship?
Tony Stewart really did perform better in the summer
I calculated Stewart’s average finishing position by month to test this theory. In the graph below, I plot the results from his 618-race career. My scale uses red to mean good average finish (‘hot’) and blue meaning not-so-good average finish. The scale runs from 9 (bright red) to 20 (bright blue.)
Stewart’s graph runs from medium blue in the early months of the season to redder in the latter portion.
Stewart’s worst results happened in February, where he had only a 17.5 average finish. Remember, however that Stewart drove during a time when February was mostly Daytona.
March and April were marginally better for Stewart, but his best results really did come in the summer. Stewart’s average finishing position in June was a full 5.1 positions better than in February.
The trend continued throughout the rest of the year, with an average finish that hovered around 13 in every month except November. But Stewart’s average finish in November was still 3.1 positions better than in February.
One might question whether this result is simply a consequence of which tracks the series visits in which months. But Stewart’s success at Daytona in July (four wins) stands in stark contrast to his lack of success in the Daytona 500 in February.
Stewart’s numbers are unusual, but not unique.
One caveat to analyzing the data this way is that a career-level calculation isn’t as enlightening for drivers in the very early stages of their careers, or for drivers who moved from less-competitive to more-competitive teams.
But among drivers for whom this way of looking at the data is useful, most graphs look like that of Denny Hamlin.
Hamlin’s numbers don’t show many extremes. His average finishes range between 12.1 and 14.9. On my scale of 9 as most red and 20 as most blue, Hamlin’s graph is mostly peach.
Although most drivers’ graphs show similarly consistent results, there are exceptions. Some current drivers do statistically perform better in some months of the year than in other months.
June and July: Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick
June is historically Ryan Blaney’s best month. His average finish of 12.4 is 5.4 positions better than his July average of 17.8.
Like Stewart, Blaney tends to do better in the latter parts of the season rather than the first parts.
Tyler Reddick shows a much higher peak in July, with a 9.5 average finish. His graph, however, highlights a more concerning trend: Reddick fades in later months.
Some of this trend may be because Reddick is in only his fourth year of full-time Cup Series competition. But in three seasons, his average finishing position in October has never been better than 12.8. Worse, Reddick’s best average finish for November races is 19.0.
Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson favor August and September
Chase Elliott, last year’s Nashville winner, tends to perform best as summer turns to fall. Since 2018, Elliott hasn’t had an August average finishing position worse than 6.7. That’s despite July being his second-worst month.
Given the number of races Elliott has missed this year, it’s risky to project this trend too far. It is worth noting, however, that Elliott is working on his best numbers for June this year with a 5.0 average finishing position headed into Nashville.
A career average finish of 8.5 over any single month is an impressive accomplishment by itself. Kyle Larson’s average September finish is 8.6 positions better than his February performance.
A career-long record shows only averages. Larson has had outstanding Marches, Aprils, and Mays in some years of his career, but numbers vary over the years. September is robust: The worst average finish Larson has ever had in September is 11.5.
Larson also finishes strongly in June. He won the 2021 Nashville race, so keep an eye on him in Sunday’s race (NBC, 7 p.m. ET), where he starts seventh.
I did not find a current driver with a statistical preference for October.
The closer
Kevin Harvick is known for closing races. He also turns out to be a season closer, with a 9.0 average finish in November races.
Since 2012, Harvick has had only one average finish worse than 6.3 in November. But unlike some of the previous drivers, Harvick’s averages are fairly close during the other months.
None of the drivers I asked had given much thought to whether they performed better during certain months of the year. But for the drivers who do show a statistical preference for one month over the others, examination of why those months are so productive might shed some light on how they could improve in the other months.
