It is not a name you hear associated with the MVP race, but Michael Penix Jr. certainly can make a case for being the league’s MVP through five weeks and his case is pretty obvious. When he plays, the Falcons win. When he does not play, Atlanta loses. Sunday, Penix and the Falcons (2-3) host the Chicago Bears (3-2).
The Falcons had their third straight win in their sights this past Sunday night against the Ravens. It was a tightly-fought game, but Penix and co. were in the lead late…until the Falcons’ QB1 suffered an injury to his ribs. Almost on cue, the Ravens proceeded to tie the game and ultimately won in overtime, 30-23. Not unlike the Falcons, the Bears are markedly better when their QB1 is under center. Former No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams is progressing in his recovery from a right hamstring strain that has kept him off the field since Week 2. He may get cleared to play this weekend. Backups Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent have each won a game for the Bears with Williams on the sidelines but the pair each played and played poorly in a lopsided loss at Green Bay last week. The Bears have been outscored 40-10 in their two losses and have outscored their opponents, 109-56, in their three wins. No doubt they are hoping the return of Williams at the QB1 position will help jumpstart Ben Johnson’s offense.
The battle between Chicago’s defense and Atlanta’s talented offensive core led by Bijan Robinson and Drake London will be the defining matchup in this game.
Historically, the Bears hold an edge in the all-time series. The most recent meeting came in Week 17 of the 2023 season, when Chicago defeated Atlanta 37-17 at Soldier Field.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
Game Details and How to Watch: Bears vs. Falcons
- Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026
- Time: 1:00P
- Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- City: Atlanta, GA
- TV/Streaming: FOX
Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.
Latest Game Odd: Bears vs. Falcons
The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Chicago Bears (-180), Atlanta Falcons (+150)
- Spread: Bears -3
- Total: 49.5
The Spread has not moved since it opened but the Total has moved North a couple of points since it opened at 47.5.
Peacock offers one of the most comprehensive live sports streaming lineups available today, bringing together the NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, Premier League, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, golf, motorsports, and major global sporting events in a single service.
Rotoworld Bet Best Bets
Expert Picks & Predictions: Bears vs. Falcons
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Bears and the Falcons:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Falcons +3.5.
- Total: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 49.5.
Here’s why the Falcons +3.5 is the best bet:
Chicago’s defense has a difficult time getting off the field. They rank 32nd in yards per play allowed, 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 31st in third-down conversion rate defense. The Falcons rank second in rushing yards, fourth in yards per carry, and fourth in rushing yards allowed — they win in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Bijan Robinson has 580 rushing yards at 5.7 yards per carry and has topped 100 combined yards in four of five games. In a game between a banged-up favorite and a home dog with a real run game, this has all the makings of a one-score game.
Bears vs. Falcons: Betting Trends and Stats
- The Bears are 3-2 against the spread this season
- The Falcons are 2-3 against the spread this season
- Chicago is 1-4 to the OVER this season
- Atlanta is 3-2 to the OVER this season
Quarterback Matchup: Bears vs. Falcons
- Bears: Caleb Williams
2026 Statistics: 2GP, 407 Passing Yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 92.0 RTG, Sacked 5 times - Falcons: Michael Penix Jr.
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 719 Passing Yards, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 104.8 RTG, Sacked 4 times
Bears vs. Falcons: Top Playmakers
Bears
- RB Kyle Monangai
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 60 carries for 324Yds, 3 TDs / 5 receptions on 5 targets for 39 Yds, 0 TDs - WR Rome Odunze
2026 Statistics: 5GP, 17 receptions on 29 targets for 273 Yds, 0 TDs - WR Luther Burden III
2026 Statistics: 5GP, 23 receptions on 35 targets for 266 Yds, 1 TD / 7 carries for 22 Yds, 0 TDs
Falcons
- RB Bijan Robinson
2026 Statistics: 5GP, 102 carries for 580 Yds, 4 TDs / 18 receptions on 26 targets for 152 Yds, 1 TD - WR Drake London
2026 Statistics: 5GP, 27 receptions on 37 targets for 488 Yds, 0 TDs / 2 carries for 4 Yds, 0 TDs - Brian Robinson Jr.
2026 Statistics: 5GP, 51 carries for 210 Yds, 4 TDs / 3 receptions on 4 targets for 21 Yds, 0 TDs
Bears vs. Falcons: Injury Update
Bears
- RB Kyle Monangai (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Dayo Odeyingbo (quad) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Keyshaun Elliott (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DT Shemar Turner (knee) is eligible to return from the IR Sunday but is listed as questionable
- CB Kyler Gordon (calf) is eligible to return from the IR Sunday but is listed as questionable
Falcons
- QB Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Za’Darius Smith (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB C.J. Henderson (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest and tools for the NFL, including game predictions, player props, futures, and trends!
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
