The NFL didn’t like the prediction markets, until it did. Now, the league seems to be clearing out the weeds in advance of turning the industry into yet another revenue stream.
Via David Purdum of ESPN, the NFL sent letters to Kalshi and Polymarket on Sunday, asking them to not offer trades on outcomes that can be easily manipulated or determined in advance. Objectionable topics include the things announcers say during NFL broadcasts, celebrities that will or won’t be attending games, and the draft.
As Purdum explains it, the letters are “similar to what [the league] asks traditional sportsbooks to prohibit, with extra terms unique to the prediction markets.”
“Some people are going to have that information . . . that they can then share,” NFL executive V.P. Jeff Miller told Purdum. “We’re trying to stay as far as we can from some of those sorts of inside information wagers that could exist in this space.”
For Super Bowl LX, $24 million was bet at Kalshi on whether Mark Wahlberg would attend the game. (The “market” — i.e., wager — was resolved as “no.”) Also, controversy emerged over whether Cardi B actually “performed” during the Super Bowl LX halftime show.
Kalshi declined ESPN’s request for comment. Polymarket said this in a statement to ESPN: “Polymarket welcomes the opportunity to collaborate with leagues across sports to protect the integrity of the games and the fan experience overall.”
In addition to things that can be determined in advance, the NFL objected to outcomes that can be easily manipulated by a single person (like a missed field goal), that can be known in advance (like draft picks, player signings and coach firings), and any topics related to officiating and “inherently objectionable” topics, like player injuries and fan safety.
The NFL ultimately can’t force the prediction markets to change their approach. But if, as it seems, the days are coming of a bi-exclusive partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket that will include plenty of cash for the NFL, certain behaviors will have to change before the NFL will jump in bed for yet another money-for-nothing arrangement.
