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UMass Lowell (-1.5) at Rhode Island: O/U 137.0
This is a big game between UMass Lowell and Rhode Island.
UMass is 9-1 on the ML and 8-2 ATS this year and coming off its second failed cover (-18 and won by 9). On the road, Lowell is 6-0 ATS and 5-1 on the ML, covering and winning all four as a favorite.
For Rhode Island, the Rams are 4-6 ATS and 3-7 on the ML. Rhode Island won the previous game, breaking a three-game losing streak. Rhode Island has yet to win two-straight games this season and do not function well as a home underdog.
Since 2020-21, Rhode Island is 2-5 on the ML as a home underdog and 3-4 ATS. The Rams have lost and failed to cover in three-straight as a home underdog and five of the past six.
The Rams offense has lacked in major ways, ranking 347th in three-point offense (27.1%), 325th in turnover percentage (22.2%) and 283rd in effective field goal percentage (44.4%). The River Hawks defense ranks top 100 in most categories and plays at a much quicker pace than Rhode Island.
If this game is slowed down to Rhode Island’s pace, UMass Lowell has better shooting and well-balanced scoring. This team is giving me Vermont of last year vibes and with this hot start and while Rhode Island should get better, they are not a team worth backing with losses to Brown, Quinnipiac and Texas State at home.
I grabbed UMass Lowell on the ML at -130 odds and would play this out to -140.
Pick: UMass Lowell ML (1u)
Mississippi Valley State at Wichita State (-26): O/U 127.5
Betting on big spreads can be easy or stressful, and I hoping we have the latter of the two.
Mississippi Valley State (MVS) is ranked 362nd in the country out of 363 teams on Kenpom, so I like our chances.
The Delta Devils will travel to Wichita to take on the Shockers. MVS is 1-7 on the ML this season in games you were able to bet, but 1-9 overall. The Delta Devils are 6-4 ATS and 4-3 ATS on the road.
While MVS have been profitable, there have been some +33.5 and +35 covers that can be tossed aside. MVS has lost five-straight games by 21, 13, 43, 20 and 30 points.
The Delta Dogs hit 36.3% from three this season (88th), but that’s because they trail by so much. Wichita State ranks 11th overall with a 26.5 three-point defense, so MVS should struggle to score.
Against top 100 ranked teams, MVS has lost by 64, 31, 21, 43 and 30 points, so the favorite has covered this -25.6 point spread four times.
Wichita State is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite this season and won by 24, 12 and 18 points. This will be the best matchup at home so far this season and likely all season. I laid the big -26.5 and would play this to -27.
Pick: Wichita State -26 / -26.5 (1u)
Southern Mississippi (-13.5) at Lamar: O/U 138.5
These two teams just met on Saturday at Southern Mississippi and the Golden Eagles won 95-59, covering the -19.5.
This was -15.5 this morning when I bet it, but it’s down to 13.5, so a better number for the reader. The logic of home-court advantage for Lamar is funny or travel, because both teams made the same trip back and the Cardinals will not have a substantial home-court advantage as it is.
Lamar is ranked 358th out of 363 teams in Kenpom and the lone DI win came versus Longwood (73-71).
Southern Miss is 6-1 ATS this season (85.7%) and 6-1 on the ML. The lone loss was a 84-82 head-scratcher at Northwestern State (268th) who is a perfect 9-0 ATS this year, so this will be a rebound road performance for Southern Miss against a team they just beat by 36 points.
If Lamar wasn’t a bottom-five team in the country, I would take them here on a revenge spot at home, but they rank 354th and 355th in offensive and defensive efficiency, plus 361st from three-point range (24.7%).
Southern Miss should win in blowout fashion once again, but I agree, it shouldn’t be 30-plus point blowout, more like 20-plus. I played the -15.5 this morning, so would advise to play the -13.5 if you’re riding.
Pick: Southern Mississippi -13.5 / -15.5 (1u)
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