Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite bets of the College Basketball slate, including Akron versus Kent State and Kent VCU against Saint Louis.
Kent State at Akron (-1.5): O/U 133.5
This should be the best game of the night as Kent State takes on Akron in a battle of the best two teams in the MAC.
Kent State has won 12 of the past 13 games and Akron won seven-straight and nine of the previous 10 games.
In this series, Kent State swept Akron last year in the regular-season before the Zips won the MAC tournament meeting. Since 2018, Akron is 4-1 at home with its only loss coming by two points. Under coach John Groce Akron is 72-13 (.825) at home.
The Zips are the No. 1 and 2 offensive and defensive efficiency rated team in the MAC and they play at snail’s pace, ranking 307th out of 363 teams for tempo. Kent State is 143rd nationally in tempo and 94th in offensive tempo, so Akron has the ability to slow this game down to their pace.
On the road, Kent State has posted 66.2% from the free-throw line, 31.7% from the three-point line and don’t rebound well on either side, ranking 281st and 260th.
At home, Akron is putting up stellar numbers, but even better in MAC play at home. The Zips rank top four in nearly every metric at home in MACtion, including offensive and defensive rebounding, three-point defense (28.4%) and free-throw percentage (79.4%).
In road conference play, Kent State has gone to Miami (OH), Ohio and Eastern Michigan, so this should be the toughest road test thus far for Kent State in MAC play.
All of Kent State’s losses have come on the road and Akron is undefeated at home. Akron is having a “White-Out” for this game, so the crowd should be rocking as the Zips attempt to extend their home winning streak to 14 consecutive games dating back to last season.
I played the Zips ML at -115 odds and would go to -135. This is -115 and -125 at most shops.
Pick: Akron ML (1u)
VCU at Saint Louis (-3.5): O/U 141.5
I cannot wait for this game, as I expect this to be a top-three game on the slate.
VCU and Saint Louis are in a race for the A-10 Regular Season Title and both teams were super hot before the last two games.
The Rams of VCU have won eight of the last 10 meetings versus Saint Louis but lost the past two at Saint Louis. The Billikens opened at -1.5 and moved out to -3.5, which is too many points.
Saint Louis is coming off a 10-point road loss at Fordham that broke a six-game winnings streak. The Billikens almost lost the game prior to Davidson on the road, slipping away with a 74-70 victory. The Billikens turned the ball over 27 times in those two games, which will be a major concern against VCU’s No. 6 ranked turnover defense (24.9%).
On the other hand, VCU, which was the hottest team from three in the conference has cooled off the past two games going 2-of-25 from three (8%). Despite the extreme poor shooting from deep, VCU has held its opponents to 120 combined points in those two games on 41.5% from the field (42-of-101) and forced 20 turnovers.
Looking at the Billikens’ home schedule in conference, Saint Louis has hosted La Salle, George Mason and St. Bonaventure. This will be the toughest home game for Saint Louis since hosting Boise State in non-conference action (Boise State won 57-52) or SIU Edwardsville (SIU won 69-67).
VCU has already played the top competition in the A-10 on the road and five games overall, Davidson, Dayton, Richmond, Duquesne and Loyola Chicago. The Rams have been battle-tested away from home, but I am not so sure Saint Louis has been tested at home in weeks.
This will be a tight game to the final whistle, so I played VCU at +3.5 and -115 odds. This line has moved to +3 and +2.5 at most places, which is still playable with the +3 being the preference.
I lean the Under 141.5, but I have sucked with full game totals this season.
Pick: VCU +3.5 (1u)
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