Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the UNC vs Duke rivalry, along with Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s and matchups between Indiana vs Purdue, plus Texas vs Kansas State.
Texas (-1.5) at Kansas State: O/U 151.5
Kansas State remains undefeated at home this season and hosts Texas. K-State seeks revenge after Texas beat the Wildcats in K-State by 13 points last year.
At home in conference play, Kansas State is top three in nearly every defensive metric, including turnover percentage (21.3%), three-point defense (22.4%) and two-point defense (46.3%), which should spell trouble for Texas.
As the road team in Big 12 action, the Longhorns shoot 27% from three, rank 7th in offensive efficiency (109.6) and are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams (27%).
I think the wrong team is favored considering Kansas State beat Texas on the road this year 116-103. Texas never led in that game and Kansas State was up by as many as 20 points. David N’Guessan was out for the matchup and he’s back for the Wildcats.
Kansas State is off a loss to rival Kansas and has not lost back-to-back games all season. Texas is coming off a five-point home win where they were -4.5 home favorites.
This will be a tougher test for Texas and despite the motivation factor for the Longhorns to seek revenge after the 13-point loss this year, Kansas State wants to avoid losing two-straight seasons at home to Texas.
Every model I have ranks Kansas State as the winning side and they are a home dog on Saturday. Give me the Cats +1.5 at -110 odds down to the ML.
Pick: Kansas State +1.5 (Risk 1.5u)
Purdue at Indiana (-1.5): O/U 139.5
Purdue has the nation’s fourth-longest winning streak at nine games and I think that comes to an end today. Indiana beat Purdue at home last season and the Hoosiers have been a terrific home team this year, losing only one game.
These two squads matchup well because of the height and two-point offense and defense. The Hoosiers home court factor will be a problem for Purdue.
The Hoosiers have the Big Ten’s best three-point defense at home (27.2%) and No. 1 three-point offense (46.5%). The Boilermakers are top three on the road in conference play at three-point offense (37.9%) and defense (32.8%).
Neither team forces turnovers and both are superb rebounding squads. The Hoosiers have enough rebounders, height and athleticism to hang with Zach Edey.
Every model I use has Indiana to win by more than three points and I agree. It’s a Saturday road game in conference play and Purdue looks for a double-digit win streak as the travel to Indiana who is coming off a road loss.
I like the Hoosiers. I played Indiana at +1.5 and sprinkled the ML. This flipped to Indiana as the favorite of -1.5, so we will risk 1u on the ML at -110 odds.
Pick: Indiana ML (Risk 1u)
North Carolina at Duke (-3.5): O/U 144.5
It’s no surprise that UNC lost outright by one point at home to Pitt because they got caught in a classic look-ahead spot to Duke.
Duke barely escaped Wake Forest at home, winning by two points, so the Blue Devils weren’t far off.
As always, I expect this game to be close and the rivalry to live up to the hype.
The Tar Heels are terrific at offensive turnover percentage (15th) and rebound at an elite rate on defense (4th). The Blue Devils struggle mightily with turnovers (161st) and offensive rebound at a rate to counter the Tar Heels (2nd).
Neither team shoots the ball well from deep and both teams 74% from the line in conference play, so if you ask me this is pretty even, but I like UNC for one big reason.
The Tar Heels play at a much quicker pace than the Blue Devils and have the same to matchup with Duke, so if you UNC plays at fast and at their tempo or slows it down and bangs at Duke’s pace, I believe UNC should be solid either way.
I grabbed UNC +3.5 for -115 odds and naturally sprinkled the ML. Duke is undefeated at home and UNC would be no better team than to break that streak.
Pick: North Carolina +3.5 (1u)
Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s (-3.5): O/U 136.5
Both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s both played on Thursday, so there is no rest advantage and these squads met three times last year, so expect this to be another great game.
Gonzaga won two out of three meetings with Saint Mary’s winning at home. This is a much different Gonzaga team but they still have plenty of quality wins and games under their belt. The Bulldogs have strung together three-straight wins by nine or more points together after a one-point loss to Loyola Marymount.
Gonzaga scored 88, 82 and 99 points in the last three games on terrific two-point shooting (76/119 for 63.8%). Saint Mary’s main strength is their two-point defense (10th in the nation), so this will be a challenge for both squads but the tempo could matter.
Saint Mary’s plays the fifth-slowest offensive tempo in the country but 128th in defensive average possession length, so I like the chances Gonzaga can score in this game with their top 75 offensive and defensive tempo.
The Gaels are on a 11-game winning streak, the second-longest current winning streak in the nation. Over the last two games, Saint Mary’s put up two very different efforts, which is dangerous to back as a favorite against Gonzaga, in my opinion.
Versus BYU, the Gaels attempted eight free-throws (7 makes) and shot 43% and 42% from the field and three-point line in a one-point road win. The following game against San Francisco, Saint Mary’s recorded 37 free-throw attempts (32 makes) and went 4-of-17 from three (23.5%) in a nine-point home win.
These teams are familiar with one another and I expect a close game and Gonzaga to make a run at the West Coast Conference regular-season title.
This is my favorite game to end the night on. Gonzaga as a two possession underdog to a conference opponent is just too good to pass up.
I grabbed the Bulldogs on the opening line of +4.5 at -115 odds and +3.5 at -115 too. I would play this down to +3. I sprinkled the ML as well.
Pick: Gonzaga +3.5 (1u)
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