LSU (-1) vs. Mississippi (Ole Miss)
These two squads meet for the second time this season, but now a little more is on the line with a chance to advance past the SEC Quarterfinals. LSU is averaging 85.2 points per game over their last five contests, ranking eighth in the country and grabbing the fourth-most rebounds per game at 43.2.
The Tigers have a significant scoring advantage against the Rebels and that was exposed in the first meeting. LSU won 75-61 and held Ole Miss to 8-of-26 from three (30.8%). Ole Miss never led in that game and were down by 23 with 5:50 remaining in the second-half.
Using NBC’s CBB Edge Finder, I was able to create and search my own trends for this matchup. What I found was interesting. Over the last two years, LSU is 8-1 SU (88.8%), when they are the favorite and playing against a team with a winning ML and ATS record. Against SEC opponents, LSU is 5-1 SU (83.3%).
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Ole Miss struggles with their three-point shooting (29.7%) and three-point defense (36.6%) in conference play. The Rebels’ offense plays at a slow tempo (66.1) and owns the SEC’s last-ranked average possession length (18.6 seconds). LSU ranks top 70th in both offensive and defensive average possession length and sixth in the nation with a 73.5 adjusted tempo. The Tigers scored 1.07 points per possession in the first meeting and held the Rebels to 0.87.
The Rebels allow SEC opponents to score 34.7% of their points from three, the second-most in conference play. LSU shoots the trey-ball at 33.2% in conference play (7th) and hits 52.4% of their two-point attempts (2nd).The Tigers also lead the SEC in adjusted offensive efficiency (109.7) and turnover percentage (16.1%).
The Tigers interestingly enough rank third in the SEC with a defensive three-point percentage (30.9%), but allows 34.0% of their opponents’ points to come from beyond the arc, which is a little high. Luckily for LSU, Ole Miss ranks 13th (2nd worst) in the SEC with 29.7% from deep and 319th in the nation (29.9%). [[ad:athena]]
Ole Miss is 2-5 ATS (28.5%) in their last seven neutral site games. The Rebels just handed it to South Carolina, but they were also without Jermaine Couisnard, Keyshawn Bryant and Seventh Woods.
LSU is fully loaded and ready to go. The Tigers have four players averaging at least 11.7 points per game, led by Cameron Thomas’ 23.1 points. Thomas’ 23.1 points per game is fourth in the country overall. Trendon Watford (16.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Ja’vonte Smart (15.8 PPG, 3.9 APG) and Darius Days (11.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG) make up the other three double-figure scorers for the Tigers.
LSU has beaten Ole Miss in five straight games, winning by 14, 4, 10, 14 and 16 points during that span.
Ole Miss has not beat LSU on the road or a neutral court game since March 9, 2013. Ole Miss has lost four straight versus LSU away from home.
Back the Tigers to advance and play the winner of Arkansas and Missouri in the SEC Semifinal.
Game Pick: LSU ML (1u)
