It’s March and the madness is upon us! Most of the Power 5 conference teams have their final game today before conference tournament season begins. Let’s take a look at my four favorite bets today in hopes of extending my 10-2 run in College Basketball to 14-2. Best of luck! Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
Houston (-13.5) at Oklahoma State: O/U 146.5
Houston goes to Oklahoma State today and I like the Cougars to score 40+ points in the first half. Against the top 10 offensive efficiency rated teams in the Big 12, here’s how many first-half points Oklahoma State allowed:
At Texas Tech: 46 1H Points
At Arizona: 40 1H Points
Vs BYU: 41 1H Points
At Iowa State: 42 1H Points
Vs Iowa State: 51 1H Points
Vs UCF: 32 1H Points
At UCF: 40 1H Points
Vs Kansas: 43 1H Points
At Cincinnati: 51 1H Points
Vs Baylor: 57 1H Points
At TCU: 37 1H Points
Vs TCU: 39 1H Points
In those 12 games, Oklahoma State has allowed an average of 43.2 1H PPG and 37 or more in 11 out of 12 and 40+ in 9 of 12. Oklahoma State plays the 9th-quickest tempo in the country, the 7th-fastest on defense, and 6th-most possessions per game. Houston ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency in the Big 12 and put up 55 and 35 1H Points in the L2 games. I’d go up to 39.5 for Houston today.
Pick: Houston 1H Team Total Over 38.5 (1 unit)
Arkansas at Missouri (-2.5): O/U 160.5
Missouri was a +2.5/+3 point home underdog and now has swung to a -2.5 point favorite since opening. Arkansas won the first meeting at home, 94-86, back on February 21st. Arkansas was a -9 to -10.5 point favorite, so the fact Missouri is favored now is an eye-opening swing in terms of odds.
In the first meeting, Missouri had 4 different players finish with four fouls and Arkansas went 22-of-25 from the free-throw line as a result, plus an impressive 8-of-18 from 3 (44.4%). Now, Arkansas is on the road where they rank seventh in the SEC for offensive efficiency compared to first at home in conference play.
Nationally, Arkansas goes from the fourth-best offense to 30th from home to road and their 3-point shooting drops to 32.6% (210th) from 40% (21st) as does their FT shooting from 77.6% (48th) to 72% (196th). Mark Mitchell gave Arkansas real problems in the first meeting (26 Points, 8 Assists, 4 Rebounds) and if Missouri stays out of foul trouble at home on Senior Day — I think Mizzou wins.
Pick: Missouri ML (1 unit)
Arizona State at Iowa State (-15.5): O/U 147.5
After losing to Texas Tech (82-73) and Arizona (73-57) over the last two games, I’m expecting Iowa State to demolish Arizona State. Iowa State is head over heels more talented than Arizona State and the Sun Devils tempo wont do them any favors.
When Iowa State has played the top-eight ranked tempo teams in the Big 12, here’s what’s happened:
At Kansas State: 95-61 win (50 1H Pts)
Vs Oklahoma State: 83-71 win (42 1H Pts)
At Oklahoma State: 84-71 win (51 1H Pts)
At BYU: 79-69 loss (30 1H Pts)
At Arizona: 73-57 loss (25 1H Pts)
Vs UCF: 87-57 win (44 1H Pts)
At TCU: 62-55 loss (30 1H Pts)
Vs Colorado: 97-67 win (52 1H Pts)
Outside of road games at BYU and Arizona, which came in two of the last four games, Iowa State has rolled the fast paced teams and at home against Oklahoma State, UCF, and Colorado, they scored 42, 44 and 52 1H Points and won by 11, 30, and 30. The Sun Devils are coming off a win over Kansas, so this is a good fade spot. Iowa State opened at -13.5 and I’d go out to -16. I like the First Half Team Total Over 38.5 too for the Cyclones.
Pick: Iowa State -15.5 (1 unit)
North Carolina at Duke (-17.5): O/U 146.5
The first meeting between Duke and North Carolina was epic, and not to be a Debbie Downer, but I don’t see the second matchup being nearly as exciting.
North Carolina’s largest lead in their buzzer-beater win was three points, which came from that game-winning shot, to cap off one of the best comebacks of the season, but I don’t expect UNC to have the same success this time around at Duke, as opposed to being at home in Chapel Hill. UNC had a 6.7% chance of winning with a little over two minutes remaining in the game and somehow pulled off the victory.
Since these teams met, Duke ranks first and second in defensive and offensive efficiency, while North Carolina is 68th and 41st. UNC also ranks 301st in turnovers forced during that span, so their defense isn’t doing itself any favors, whereas Duke is shutting down everyone since playing the Tar Heels.
Duke has held their last seven opponents to 64 or fewer points, and six out of seven shot 27% or worse from 3-point range, including Michigan, so I will be on North Carolina’s Team Total Under 64.5 down to 62.5.
Pick: North Carolina Team Total Under 64.5 (1 unit)
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!
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