Editor’s Note: Enjoy 15% off our NEW NBC Sports EDGE+ Subscription this holiday season and get every tool (Fantasy, DFS & Betting) for every game at a great low price. Use promo code HOLIDAY15 at checkout. Click here to Buy Now.
(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
Both of these teams want to run. Iowa’s offense was particularly bad this year, so star RB Tyler Goodson’s absence is being focused on in the lead-up to the game. But Iowa’s run defense is sensational, degrees better than Kentucky’s. The Hawkeyes are also better at penetrating behind the scrimmage and causing havoc plays in general. Do you trust UK QB Will Levis to make big plays through the air if Kentucky’s run game is shut down?
What: Citrus Bowl
Who: Kentucky (9-3, 5-3 SEC) vs. Iowa (10-3, 7-3 Big 10)
Where: Orlando, Florida
When: Saturday, January 1 at 1 p.m. EST
The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Opening line: Kentucky -2.5 (O/U 45)
Current line: Kentucky -3 (O/U 44)
Most recent bowl result: Kentucky beat NC State 23-21 in last year’s Gator Bowl as three-point favorites. Iowa beat USC 49-24 in the 2019 Holiday Bowl as two-point underdogs after its bowl game last year was canceled.
Kentucky at a glance: Kentucky’s offense has two gravitational players: RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (1,272 rushing yards and eight TD) and WR Wan’Dale Robinson (94 catches for 1,164 yards on 132 targets). The Wildcats imported Robinson from Nebraska and starting QB Will Levis from Penn State over the offseason, two driving forces behind the top-25 SP+ offensive finish during the regular season (No. 23). Kentucky’s defense regressed to No. 35, but remains a relative strength.
Iowa at a glance: Iowa will be without junior running back Tyler Goodson (1,151 rushing yards and six TD with a 31-247-1 receiving line). RB2 Gavin Williams will likely start in Goodson’s place. Iowa’s offense ranked No. 100 SP+ during the regular season and it isn’t going to be any better on Saturday -- QB Spencer Petras has a big arm but glaring accuracy and pocket-awareness issues. But even when Iowa was beating strong competition this fall, the offense was languishing. The Hawkeyes are led by their defense and special teams – both rank top-5 SP+ nationally – and those units typically travel.
Key to the matchup: My favorite play for this game is the under (44). Iowa’s offense will play down without Goodson, but the Hawkeyes’ defense and special teams were good enough to take games over in the regular season and I certainly prefer Iowa’s D to Kentucky’s offense. Kentucky’s running game isn’t explosive, but it ranks No. 4 in success rate and No. 7 in stuff rate. Iowa’s defense ranks No. 13 in rushing YPG allowed and No. 8 with a 3.21 YPC average against. It’ll be a three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust fest when the Wildcats are on offense. And vice-versa, leading to a physical, low-scoring chessmatch. That’s Ferentz’s kind of party, and Iowa has the huge special teams edge.
Ferentz is traditionally reliable in bowl season, so if I have to be on a side, it’s Iowa to grind out the win. Kentucky doesn’t profile as the sort of team that gives Iowa problems. The Hawkeyes are 8-2 ATS over its last 10 games against lower-ranked teams (Iowa is No. 17, Kentucky is No. 25), while Ferentz is 10-5 ATS in bowl games (including 3-0 SU and ATS over his last three). This will only be the fourth time since 1999 that Kentucky is a bowl favorite – they went 0-2-1 in the last three. Iowa is also more battle-tested than Kentucky. The Wildcats’s best win of the season was over Florida (ATL No. 34). Iowa beat four different teams my ATL system ranked higher: Iowa State (No. 15), Penn State (No. 17), Minnesota (No. 25) and Nebraska (No. 33). Kentucky only beat one other team ranked inside the ATL top-50, LSU (No. 46).
Best Bets: Iowa +3 | UNDER 44
