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The Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl features a Florida vs. Florida battle IN Florida, so both teams’ fans should be coming in full force. Florida is perhaps the most bipolar team in the nation, running Alabama close and beating a solid Tennessee while also getting smoked by South Carolina, losing to Missouri and needing a second half comeback against Samford. On the other side UCF managed to overcome the loss of star QB Dillon Gabriel and finish 5-1 in their last six.
What: Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Who: Florida (6-6, 2-6 SEC) vs. UCF (8-4, 5-3 AAC)
Where: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
When: December 23rd at 7:00 P.M. ET (ESPN)
Opening line: Florida -6.5 (O/U 56.5)
Current line: Florida -6.5 (O/U 55.5)
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Most recent bowl result: Florida lost to Oklahoma, 55-20, in the 2020 Cotton Bowl. UCF lost to BYU, 49-23, in the 2020 Boca Raton Bowl.
Florida at a glance: Florida, coming off a successful 2020 that saw them make the SEC championship game and a New Year’s Six Bowl, had high expectations for 2021. What followed was an absolute disaster that saw their coach fired and their starting QB Emory Jones transferring out. They made a bowl by the sole virtue of punching way below their weight in their non-conference schedule while getting ground up in the SEC.
UCF at a glance: The Golden Knights also had a somewhat disappointing season. Dillon Gabriel, coming off an incredible year where he threw 32 touchdowns to just four interceptions, was supposed to lead UCF to the top of the AAC. Instead, Gabriel suffered a season-ending collar injury in their third game, and now he’s on his way out. Thrust into a role he did not prepare for, Mikey Keene performed fairly admirably, as UCF needed to transition out of a pass first offense into something much more ground based. After a tough loss to Navy, UCF mostly righted the ship, winning five of their last six. While they couldn’t compete with the best teams in the AAC like Cincinnati and SMU, they fended off all other challengers like East Carolina and Memphis.
Key to the matchup: Florida QB Emory Jones is the wild card here. On his day he can be great, running and throwing effectively, but he’s thrown just 19 touchdowns to 13 interceptions, and six of those touchdowns were against Samford. Jones also has the added caveat that he’s leaving the Gators after this bowl, and one must wonder just how dedicated he’ll be to the cause. Jones was just benched in their last win against FSU, with Anthony Richardson filling in for the second half, and now Richardson can’t play with a knee injury.
On the other side, UCF has gone with a balanced attack, rushing for 188 yards per game and throwing for 211. Honestly, UCF is the definition of solid. They can run, pass and play good defense in pretty much equal measure. Mikey Keane isn’t great, but he’s fairly safe, and if they can just hold on until Florida inevitably implodes they can win this game.
Best Bet: UCF (+6.5): I really think Florida could care less about this game, and they have a weird situation at QB which further confuses things. Jones has no reason to try, and their leading receiver AND pass rusher have both opted out. Considering the expectations, Florida’s morale is probably at a pretty low point. UCF, on the other hand, have had a good end to the year, and are rallying around their future QB, who’s a true freshman that should still have the hunger to win.
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