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Jeff Sims O/U 28.5 Rushing Yards vs. Clemson
In College Football, sacks count as negative rushing yards for quarterbacks, so I have been waiting for these player props to drop since Week 0 for our first trifecta of the year.
You can attack quarterbacks like Bryce Young versus Georgia and make a killing on the Unders because of sacks.
I like fading Jeff Sims of Georgia Tech versus Clemson because of that. The Yellow Jackets offensive line returns two starters that combine for fewer than 20 career starts.
A few transfers without starting experience and bench players from last year and fighting for the other three spots.
That will be troublesome versus Clemson’s front seven and be a major concern when it comes to moving the ball and manufacturing points.
Sims had 34 or more rushing yards in six out of seven games last season, so it would be odd for a casual bettor to see his prop so low when scanning through his game log.
However, the Yellow Jackets O-Line was better last year and he was only sacked two or more times in four of seven games. I expect a career-high in sacks taken tonight for Sims, which is five.
Clemson almost had Sims’ career-high sack record in 2020, but they only sacked him four times. Sims finished with 13 rushing attempts for negative 23 yards and four sacks taken. That’s right -13 yards. Georgia Tech lost 73-7.
When Sims takes three or more sacks in his career, he is 4-2 to the Under 28.5 rushing yards. When Sims takes four or more sacks, he is 2-0 to the Under 28.5 rushing yards. I like the chances he takes four or more sacks again.
NBC’s player prop model projects Sims at 18.8 rushing yards, right up my alley. Versus teams like Pitt, Notre Dame, Miami and Clemson, Sims has rushed for 14 or fewer yards in his career, so give me the Under 28.5.
I played Under 28.5 rushing yards on FanDuel at -110 odds. DraftKings has the same line for -115 odds.
I would play this down to 20.5 rushing yards for 1.5 units. I honestly think he could have negative yards again.
Pick: Jeff Sims Under 28.5 Rushing Yards (1.5u)
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Jeff Sims O/U 180.5 Passing Yards vs. Clemson
We will conclude with Sims Under 180.5 passing yards too.
Sims hit the Over 180.5 in his last five starts and our model has him going Over, but I doubt it.
Sims was 6-4 to the Under 180.5 passing yards in 2020, including 5-1 to the Under in is final six games.
So, what changed in 2021 to make him hit the Over constantly? Yes, the O-Line was better, but he played terrible pass defenses like Pitt, UNC, Duke and Virginia, posting 297 or more passing yards in three of the four and 240 total yards in the other.
Clemson is nothing like those defenses and say what you want about how bad the Tigers offense was last year, the defense was more than fine.
The Tigers defense held the Yellow Jackets to eight points last season, one more point than they allowed against Tech in 2020. Jordan Yates quarterbacked for Georgia Tech last year, so it’s all Sims until he gets benched.
Like I mentioned previously, Sims met Clemson in 2020 and Georgia Tech lost 73-7. Sims went 6 for 13 passing with 81 yards, one touchdown and one interception. I expect around 150-160 passing yards in this contest as Georgia Tech should not have any luck running the ball.
I played Under 180.5 rushing yards. This is on FanDuel at -110 odds. Draftkings has Under 179.5 and -115 odds.
I would play this down to 170.5 rushing yards for 1 unit.
To check out my ATS play on Clemson vs Georgia Tech for the trifecta, click here.
Pick: Jeff Sims Under 180.5 Passing Yards (1u)
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