Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium College Football Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. Click here to learn more!
Buffalo (-2) at Bowling Green: O/U 54.5
This spread opened at Bowling Green -1.5 and has flipped to Buffalo -2 and rightfully so.
Bowling Green is coming off a 31-28 win versus Akron, who is not good either, and the Falcons were a -9.5 point road favorite.
Bowling Green never led by more than 10 points at Akron and the programs first win of the season was a 34-31 OT thriller versus Marshall, in which the Falcons needed a 21-point third quarter to get back into that game.
Looking at Buffalo briefly, the Bulls opened the season losing three-straight versus Maryland, Holy Cross and Coastal Carolina before sweeping the last two versus Eastern Michigan and Miami (OH), two MAC opponents.
Buffalo did not look good in non-conference play but after 51 points at Eastern Michigan and a touchdown pass with 31 seconds left to beat Miami (OH), things are looking up for the Bulls.
Buffalo has won four of the past five meetings in the series versus Bowling Green, but lost the previous meeting 56-44 as a -13.5 home favorite (-619 on ML) -- revenge time?
Per NBC’s Edge Finder, the spreads on the four wins for Buffalo were -31.5, -28.5, -16 and -7.5. Buffalo won those four games an average of 26.7 points per game.
Bowling Green has the second-worst ranked third-down defense in the country (54.4%) and 92nd-ranked rushing defense (161.4 yards per game). The Bowling Green defense also ranks 128th with 497.6 yards allowed per game, which is fourth-worst only better than Colorado, Charlotte and Ohio.
On top of that, the Falcons rank 107th in total offense (328.4 yards per game) and 102nd in yards per completion (10.84 yards per completion). There isn’t much to like about this team.
Buffalo is one of the fewest penalized teams in the country at 5.0 penalties per game (T-22nd), can move the ball down the field with 120 first downs on offense (T-28th) and since 2017, the Bulls are 9-3 on the ML (75%) and 7-5 ATS (58.3%) as a road favorite in conference play.
Buffalo was expected to be down this season, but not as down as Bowling Green. The Falcons have had the tougher strength of schedule, but most college football power rankings have Bowling Green as a bottom 10 team, while Buffalo is a top 100-unit along with almost every model making this at least Buffalo -3.
Give me the Bulls on the ML at -125 odds. I would play out to -150 on the ML or -3 on the spread.
I don’t play -1, -1.5 and -2 spreads.
Pick: Buffalo ML (Risk 1.5u)
Editor’s Note: Make NBC Sports Predictor a pregame ritual every week. Play Irish Pick ‘Em for free and have a chance to win $10,000 each week. From first downs to touchdowns you can win big! Click here to get started.
ML Parlay (+185)
Buffalo ML (-125) at Bowling Green
Illinois ML (-171) vs Iowa
We are one win away from cashing our Illinois Team Total Over 4.5 wins... in Week 6!
It’s coming here ladies and gents. Bret Bielema has lived up to the hype with a 4-1 start and upset win over Wisconsin in Madison last Saturday. The Illini defense forced Wisconsin’s Graham Mertz into two interceptions and sacked him a season-high five times -- Ohio State only sacked Mertz once.
The Illinois defense ranks second in scoring defense (8.4 points per game) only behind Alabama (7.2 ppg).
Iowa ranks fourth (10.0 ppg), while Illinois ranks fourth in rushing defense (70.2 yards per game) and Iowa is 13th (92.8 ypg). They both rank 11th and 12th in passing defense and top 40 in turnover margin, so defensively, we have very similar teams.
On offense, Illinois is the much better unit. Spencer Petras at quarterback for Iowa is fade almost every week and especially versus another capable defense. Tommy DeVito showed up versus Wisconsin for 167 yards and a 75% completion percentage with no turnovers -- shutting me up as I was on the Illini Team Total Under 18.5.
DeVito has nine touchdowns to two interceptions and 63.8 QBR (55th) compared to Petras’ two touchdowns and two interceptions, 17.8 QBR (128th) and 770 passing yards (104th).
Iowa doesn’t have many playmakers around Petras as no receiever has more than 200 yards through four games and both running backs are under 210 rushing yards apiece.
The difference, Chase Brown. The Illini running back went Over his 120.5 rushing yard prop with 129 versus Wisconsin and added a touchdown on 26 total touches. Brown has at least 108 rushing yards in every game this season and his 733 rushing yards leads the country.
Iowa has won eight-straight meetings versus Illinois and were the favorite every single time. The last time Illinois won? The Illini were a -130 home favorite in 2008. Coincidence? I think not!
Bielema is 7-3 on the ML (70%) and 8-2 ATS (80%) in his last 10 games, plus he’s 5-1 on the ML (83.3%) and 4-2 ATS (66.6%) as a favorite at Illinois. Bielema lost his very first start as a favorite and won five-straight.
Give me the Illinois ML (-171) and the Buffalo ML (-125) for +185 odds on PointsBet. It’s +170 to +180 elsewhere.
If Buffalo somehow loses, we will roll with Illinois -3 (-110) more than likely later on.
Pick: Buffalo and Illinois ML Parlay (1u)
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.