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Favorites come in all shapes and sizes in college football. While double-digit spreads are a relative rarity at the pro level, those numbers can vary wildly on Saturdays as teams dip in and out of conference play or step up (or down) a level in competition.
And while it’s often easy to be tempted to take a handful of points and hope for the best with a significant underdog, sometimes the favorites are favored for a reason. Each week our College Football staff will share their picks for which “chalk” favorite of 10 points or more will both win and, more importantly, cover the spread. (Note: We look at underdogs as well.)
Here are our staff’s picks for Week 9, with some big numbers spread all across the country:
Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Oregon (-17) over Cal
Oregon got a wake-up call in their 49-3 destruction at the hands of Georgia in Week 1, but since then the Ducks have rattled off six straight victories while scoring at least 41 points in all of them. Former Auburn QB Bo Nix has been reborn in Eugene, raising his completion rate from 60% with the Tigers to 72% while boosting his NFL passer rating from 88.9 in 2021 to 116.1 this year. New Oregon HC Dan Lanning has allowed Nix to use his legs more strategically as well, as the former blue-chip recruit has accrued 382 rushing yards and 8.0 YPC on 48 carries at Oregon as opposed to his 168 rushing yards on 2.9 YPC for Auburn last year.
Nix also has a great feel in the pocket, taking just one sack through seven games with his incredible 2.3% pressure-to-sack rate checking in as the best mark in the nation. The Ducks have posted a sensational 60% success rate, which ranks tops in FBS, while checking in at second in overall EPA/Play. The Oregon offense has been both explosive and efficient, while their defense has been far less intimidating than expected while allowing 29 PPG.
On the other side, Cal is just 1-4 versus Power Five opponents and the Golden Bears have lost their last three decisions at Wazzu, at Colorado and home against Washington by a combined score of 76-42. Though HC Justin Wilcox is well-respected for his ability to call a defense, there isn’t anything that Cal does particularly well. They rank a troubling 120th in Net Success Rate (-7.8%) while rating 89th in overall offense and 72nd on defense. I think this line climbs over the 17 key number by game time, and I think Oregon scores too much for Cal to keep up.
(YTD Record: 3-4-1 ATS)
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Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas): Oregon (-17) over Cal
Generally I dislike taking double-digit favorites in college football, but I am all over the Ducks this week. I like the Oregon team total, spread and Bo Nix passing yards (over).
Let’s start with Nix, the one-time laughingstock of the SEC, has led this Oregon team to a 6-1 record and the seventh-best scoring offense in the country. This week he plays against a Cal team that is outmatched on both sides of the ball. The biggest advantage is the Oregon offense against the Golden Bear defense. Cal allows 280 passing yards per game and an astounding 374 passing yards last game against Michael Penix Jr. and Washington. They struggle to stop the run as well, but it will be Nix that they must stop.
Offensively with Jack Plummer, no relation to Jake Plummer, Cal stinks. From pass/rush success to pass/rush blocking, they are ranked toward the bottom fourth in college football. I was on Washington -7 against the Bears last week. Whether a lucky push or a bad break, Washington was the superior team. Outside of a few big drives in the second half, Cal struggled.
This week, Oregon comes to town knowing if they want any shot at a playoff berth, they must blow out everyone on their schedule. Good teams win, but great teams cover. That’s precisely what the Ducks (5-2 ATS) will do this weekend.
(YTD Record: 4-4 ATS)
Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB): Arizona State (-13.5) over Colorado
Despite a 2-5 record, Arizona State has played well enough in recent weeks to go 3-0, including a 45-38 win over Washington after entering the day as 13.5-point home dogs. In the previous week, the Sun Devils were 24.5-point road dogs to USC and covered by more than a touchdown in the 42-25 defeat.
Quarterback Emory Jones has thrown for 1374-5-4 on the season, but is completing 62.5% of his passes for a Sun Devils team that is throwing at a 53.2% rate. He’ll get a chance to torch a Colorado defense that’s been one of the worst in the nation against the pass, allowing a 48.8% success rate to opposing defenses through the air while allowing 219.6 passing yards per game. That number would be a bit higher had Colorado not faced two run-heavy teams in Minnesota and Air Force, to whom they gave up a combined 141 passing yards in games they lost by a combined score of 90-17.
Colorado is 1-6 ATS, has fired their head coach and was blown out 35-13 in this game last season. Arizona State is also being led by an interim head coach, but that interim coach (Shawn Aguano) has led them to three of their four wins ATS - which includes an active streak of three straight covers against Pac-12 competition. Colorado beat a struggling Cal team earlier this season, but the Sun Devils have been a tough out in recent weeks against some solid competition.
(YTD Record: 4-4 ATS)