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Earlier this week I was talking to a buddy who had questions about sports betting. He was considering jumping on the Chicago Bears at +6.5 against the Baltimore Ravens this week, saying that it feels like a pretty safe bet.
My response to him was that you don’t realize how un-safe a bet is until you start betting. I then proceeded to tell him a story about last week’s game between South Alabama (+22.5) and Appalachian State, where South Alabama looked like a lock to cover at +22.5.
Unfortunately, there was still enough time left for South Alabama backup QB Desmond Trotter to throw a pick-six with 3:08 remaining in the fourth quarter to put Appalachian up 31-7, which ended up being the final score.
The pick of South Alabama wasn’t made in my G5 article last week, but can be found in our weekly staff underdogs article if you want to find my take and rip it to shreds.
If you do decide to rip me apart for my South Alabama pick, make sure you come back and applaud me for my Western Kentucky (-18) pick against Rice last weekend, as the Hilltoppers clipped the Owls 42-21 behind quarterback extraordinaire Bailey Zappe and his five touchdown passes.
In hopes that Week 12 won’t feature any bad breaks, here are my Group of 5 picks for this weekend’s games!
Florida International (+10) vs. North Texas - O/U 57.5
Florida International announced earlier this week that head coach Butch Davis would not be returning to coach the team in 2022. It was a move decided by Davis, but it remains to be seen whether or not he would coach in the team’s remaining two games on the season, after he used some choice words to describe his opinions of the FIU football program.
What we do know is that FIU is not a great program, having lost nine straight games since opening its season with a 48-10 win over FCS Long Island University Post.
During their nine-game losing streak, FIU is 2-7 against the spread, and has only covered in one of its last six games. They have failed to cover in their last three games, having lost by a combined score of 135-34 during that span, while failing to cover by an average of 22 points per game.
Senior quarterback Max Bortenschlager has had an up-and-down season for the Panthers thus far, having thrown an interception in all but two games this season, while totaling nine interceptions on the season to go with 17 touchdowns. Last weekend against Middle Tennessee State, Bortenschlager struggled to the tune of 9-of-20 passing for 68 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions, as he and the Panthers lost 50-10 in what was unquestionably Bortenschlager’s worst game of the season.
On the season, Bortenschlager has been sacked 35 times, the fourth most of any quarterback in the nation but does rank 11th in the nation with an 11.7 average depth of target on the year.
He certainly isn’t afraid to air the ball out, but to do so against North Texas, Bortenschlager will have to stay upright against a North Texas pass rush that Pro Football Focus has graded at 90.4, which ranks as the fifth best in the nation.
North Texas is averaging 18.1 quarterback pressures per game along with 11.7 hurries and 3.1 sacks. EDGE rusher Grayson Murphy is one of the highest graded EDGE rushers in the nation on PFF.com at 90.2, as he leads the Mean Green with 41 pressures and six sacks. He has also forced a team high two fumbles.
North Texas looks like the kind of team that any grizzled football traditionalist would love. This is in fact your grandaddy’s football team.
In addition to an excellent pass rush and defensive line, the Mean Green love to grind it out on the ground.
Running back DeAndre Torrey has a rushing line of 204/972/8 on the season, while quarterback Austin Aune is second on the team in rushing with 333 yards and one score. North Texas actually has three players with over 300 rushing yards on the season, which isn’t all that surprising for a team that ranks fourth in rush attempts per game (48.8) and 14th in rushing yards per game (223.4).
North Texas got off to a painfully awful start this season, winning just one of its first seven games on the season, despite going 4-3 ATS over that span. Now, over the past four weeks, the Mean Green seem to have figured something out.
During that four-game span, North Texas is 4-0 ATS, and 3-1 straight up with wins over Rice, Southern Mississippi and the previously 6-3 UTEP Miners.
Quarterback Austin Aune hasn’t done much on the season, and likely won’t be going off for any kind of a big day in this one.
With that being said, North Texas has clearly found something out in recent weeks, as is reflected in their overall wins and victories against the spread.
Looking at the NBC Sports EDGE Edge Finder tool, we can see that FIU is just 5-11 ATS as underdogs since 2019.
Since 2020, FIU has a 1-3 record ATS in games that it is home underdogs, as is the case with this weekends game.
If North Texas is able to limit Bortenschlager through the air, and dominate on the ground, I think they will be in prime position to cover at -10 in this one.
PICK: North Texas (-10)
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UTEP (-9.5) vs. Rice - O/U 47
Twice this season I’ve bet against Rice to cover the spread. The end result? I’m 2-0 in those picks, and Rice has been walloped by a combined score of 87-21 in those two games.
To put it nicely, the case remains that Rice is simply not that great.
They rank near the bottom of the nation in rushing success rate (37.4%, 114th), passing down success rate (26.4%, 112th) and are 89th in overall success rate (40.6%).
Quarterback Jake Constantine has completed 61.9% of his passes on the season, but has thrown only six touchdowns on 181 passes, while also throwing seven interceptions. Last weekend against Western Kentucky, Constantine threw four interceptions in a 42-21 defeat.
Offensively, Rice ranks 117th in the nation in points per game at 19.5, and is 120th in points allowed per game at 36.5.
This weekend, Rice gets a matchup against a UTEP team that was 6-1 just three weeks ago, but has now lost three straight games. The Miners got blown out by UTSA 44-23 in Week 10, but lost to Florida Atlantic and North Texas by a field goal in Weeks 9 and 11.
UTEP is far from an offensive power house, as the team is averaging just 23.9 points per game and have an overall success rate of 35.9% (121st). The Miners are averaging 151.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks 74th in the nation, but the unit as a whole is the least efficient in the nation, ranking dead last in rushing success rate at 32.8%.
Things are slightly better for the Miners through the air, as they rank 89th in passing success rate (39.8%) and are fourth in air yards per pass attempt (11.8).
Quarterback Gavin Hardison, who has struggled with accuracy issues all season (54.0% completion), has been up-and-down in recent weeks. Hardison has thrown for 847 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions during the Miners’ three-game skid, with two of his three picks coming against Florida Atlantic. His completion percentage has taken a massive hit over that span, as he’s completed just 48.6% of his passes in those losses, but his 2.0 PassTD/gm in those losses is higher than his 1.4 PassTD/gm average on the season.
Prior to their three-game losing streak, UTEP was defeating it’s opponents by a mere 5.6 points per game, which is in some part skewed by a 41-point loss to Boise State in Week 3. While I’m not one to advocate for throwing out games, if you remove that blowout loss against Boise State, which was on the road against a far superior team, UTEP was outscoring its opponents by an average of 13.3 points per game in its six wins. It’s also worth noting that Rice is nowhere near the team that Boise State is.
What we’ve yet to touch on is UTEP’s defense, which is how I think this game ultimately gets covered.
We already know that Rice is far from an imposing offense. Conversely, UTEP is one of the more imposing defenses in the nation, ranking 12th in success rate allowed at 36.2%, and 31st in 3-and-out percentage (33.9%).
Pro Football Focus grades UTEP as the 15th best defense in the nation with an 87.1 grade, with a rush defense that is fifth in the nation with a 91.1 grade.
Overall, the Miners are 6-4 ATS, while Rice sits at 2-8 ATS. The 9.5 number in this one feels very generous and is one that I’m willing to take as I look to push my bets against the Owls to 3-0 on the year.
PICK: UTEP (-9.5)
2021 G5 Record: 10-8-1
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