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Going into last Saturday’s game against Wisconsin, there were a lot of doubters. Las Vegas had them as a 6.5-point underdog and numerous experts (myself included) had Wisconsin winning rather easily. The Irish stepped up, down 13-10 in the fourth quarter, and ran off 31 points to win the game in decisive fashion. Drew Pyne came off the bench and led a touchdown drive to put the Irish up 11 and the defense took over with two interceptions for touchdowns. As they move forward, there are two major things that we can take from their performance at Soldier Field.
The defense has really started to gel together. Defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman has done an excellent job with this group having to replace multiple starters on every level. They held a prolific power-running team in the Badgers to under 100 yards and 100 less than their lowest total on the year thus far. In fact, it would have been their second-lowest total last season as well. After allowing an average of 194 yards on the ground over their first two games, Freeman’s defense allowed a total of 131 yards The unit’s ability to maintain their gaps and pursue the ball carrier has resulted in a massive improvement.
The second thing is the offensive line is a major problem. The Irish are tied for 122nd in the nation (8th-worst) in rushing with a paltry 80 yards per game. Pair that with being third-worst in the nation allowing 5.25 sacks/game and you have a recipe to be beaten. The Irish has four new starters on the offensive line and only C Jarrett Patterson and RG Cain Madden (grad transfer) had extensive starting experience. That inexperience is showing in all of the worst ways. The failure to establish a running game has prevented the Irish from putting away teams so far this season and could be the downfall against the Bearcats on Saturday.
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Cincinnati (-2.5) at Notre Dame
For the first time since 2010, Notre Dame is an underdog at home against a non-Power 5 team when they were a 5.5 point underdog to Utah. On that day, the Irish beat the Utes 28-3. This game sets up very interestingly for the Irish. Cincinnati is an intriguing team. After starting 2-0 against a couple of easy opponents, they found themselves down 14-0 early against Indiana. They rallied after a rough first half, outscoring Indiana 38-10 for the rest of the game. After struggling mightily in the first half, Desmond Ridder led the final two touchdown drives and scored both touchdowns. The biggest factor with the Bearcats: stop Ridder and this game is winnable.
Notre Dame is likely to have starting quarterback Jack Coan available for the game, while backup Tyler Buchner is still uncertain with a hamstring injury. Third-string quarterback Drew Pyne came in and led the Irish on a touchdown drive that sealed the game against the Badgers. With the success against Wisconsin, the Irish should have a functional offense at worst.
The line of Cincinnati -2.5 from PointsBet Sportsbook is a little deceiving. Last week, Notre Dame was a 6.5-point underdog at kickoff against Wisconsin and they blew the doors off of them in the fourth quarter. This game feels very similar. Cincinnati is only 16-9 against the spread in their last 25 games, but the Irish are 18-1 in their last 19 games on Saturday with their last loss coming in a rematch with Clemson last December. Look for the Irish to not only cover, but to win outright.
Pick: Notre Dame +2.5
Total: Over/Under 50.5
These teams know how to put points on the board. With Cincinnati averaging 43 points per game and Notre Dame 35.25 points per game, 50.5 seems like an easy bar to clear. Only one of the seven games these teams have played have resulted in less than 30 points, with the Irish only amassing 27 points in Week 3 against Purdue. With those types of outputs, the over feels like the easy play, especially with the teams combining for a 5-2 record to the over.
Pick: Over 50.5
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Irish Pick ‘Em Predictor Contest
This is going to be something very fun for Notre Dame fans moving forward. Each week, head to the NBC Sports Predictor app and submit picks for Irish Pick ‘Em, a free-to-play contest with weekly cash prizes including a $10,000 jackpot. Participants can download the NBC Sports Predictor app, then search the “Special Contests” section for each week’s contest featuring Notre Dame.The weekly contest will include seven different prop questions, each with multiple answer options.
Notre Dame Passing Yards
<145, 145-174, 175-203, 204-232, 233-261, 262-290, 291-310, 311+
After throwing the ball for a lot of yards the first two games, the Irish have amassed only 223 and 239 passing yards over the last two games. With the running game becoming increasingly less effective, the Irish are likely to beat both of those totals.
Pick: 262-290
Notre Dame Rushing Yards
<75, 75-115, 116-157, 158-199, 200-227, 228-252, 253-283, 284+
As I spoke about earlier, the Irish are a very poor rushing team. With Kyren Williams in the backfield, they are eventually going to figure out the rushing game. After starting out this midseason gauntlet with a win, look for the Irish to take a small step forward in the running game.
Pick: 116-157
Notre Dame First Downs
0-14, 15-19, 20-22, 23-24, 25-26, 27+
One of the easiest ways to get first downs is to establish ball control with the running game. With the Irish unable to do that, they only have 77 first downs on the season, an average of 19.25 per game. With a progression expected in the running game, their first downs are likely to go slightly up as well.
Pick: 20-22
Notre Dame Receptions
0-16, 17-18, 19-20, 21-22, 23-24, 25-26, 27-28, 29+
After posting totals in the first two games in the mid-20s, the Irish regressed to 15 against Purdue. With the running game having gone nearly completely stagnant against Wisconsin, that number went back up to 21. Expect that number to stay about the same game over game.
Pick: 21-22
Notre Dame Points Allowed
0-3, 4-7, 8-13, 14-19, 20-22, 23-26, 27-31, 32+
The last two weeks have been really good from Marcus Freeman‘s defense. After allowing 33.5 points per game over the first two weeks, they have only allowed 13 points in each of the last two games. This week, the Cincinnati offense is a much better unit than what they have faced thus far. Look for the defense to still be a solid unit, but the point total will rise by double digits at the least.
Pick: 27-31
Notre Dame Longest Play
<30,30-36, 37-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70*-79, 80+
The Irish are not what you call a big play offense. With that being said, they aren’t incapable of making a big play. They have multiple plays above 50 yards and even more above 40. The Cincinnati defense showed that they were vulnerable to a big play. The Irish are likely to strike with one or two here, but don’t expect them to be overly long.
Pick: 37-49
Notre Dame Points Scored
After posting their second game of 41 points this season, the Irish brought their average up to 35.25 points on the season. They are primed to meet that total against the Bearcats on Saturday. Watch the Irish put up points and get a big victory to improve their record to 5-0 and 2-0 in their current stretch of marquee games.
Pick: 34 points
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