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College football DFS has quite the day last weekend. Per the CFB DFS tool that can be found over at NBC Sports EDGE, the perfect lineup would have netted 282.9 total points -- which is good for the second-highest scoring perfect team of the last four weeks.
What’s even more exciting was the fact that one of my favorite plays of the week had the distinct honor of being named to the perfect team.
**Drum Roll**
Florida State running back Lawrance Toafili, who was priced at $3,900 last week against Georgia Tech, churned out a 13-70-1 rushing line, while also catching five passes for 84 yards and another score. Toafili finished with 30.4 points on DraftKings, but could have had a much better day if not for two lost fumbles, but we won’t complain about the overall production.
Generally speaking, last week feature some solid performances for my favorite plays, with three players tripling their price tags. Undoubtedly the most disappointing play on the slate, Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader completed just five passes for 35 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the Oranges’ 41-24 loss to Notre Dame, with Shrader taking an early exit due to injury.
Now heading into Week 10, let’s dive back into some players I’m targeting this week on a slate that could feature some high-scoring matchups.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Play Rates
Team | Rush Rate | Pass Rate |
Baylor | 55.1% | 43.8% |
Colorado | 45.8% | 53.1% |
Florida | 52.9% | 46.0% |
Georgia | 46.4% | 53.6% |
Indiana | 34.6% | 64.4% |
Kansas | 55.0% | 44.4% |
Kentucky | 51.5% | 47.4% |
Memphis | 47.0% | 52.2% |
Minnesota | 60.4% | 37.9% |
Missouri | 52.5% | 45.6% |
Nebraska | 50.2% | 49.0% |
North Carolina | 46.4% | 53.4% |
Northwestern | 45.6% | 52.2% |
Ohio State | 49.4% | 50.4% |
Oklahoma | 53.8% | 46.0% |
Oklahoma State | 46.9% | 53.1% |
Oregon | 53.4% | 46.6% |
Penn State | 48.5% | 51.5% |
Pittsburgh | 54.1% | 44.9% |
Syracuse | 48.7% | 51.3% |
TCU | 50.1% | 49.7% |
Tennessee | 52.3% | 47.7% |
Texas A&M | 42.3% | 57.1% |
Texas Tech | 38.4% | 61.0% |
Tulane | 51.9% | 47.5% |
Tulsa | 44.9% | 54.1% |
UCF | 55.4% | 43.6% |
Virginia | 45.2% | 53.8% |
Quarterback Rush Attempts
Player | Team | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns |
Baylor | 17 | 140 | 2 | |
Colorado | 6 | 22 | 0 | |
Florida | 39 | 443 | 6 | |
Georgia | 20 | 169 | 5 | |
Indiana | 17 | 52 | 1 | |
Kansas | 20 | 128 | 2 | |
Kentucky | 22 | 78 | 2 | |
Memphis | 40 | 336 | 3 | |
Minnesota | 12 | 108 | 4 | |
Missouri | 45 | 281 | 3 | |
North Carolina | 42 | 536 | 3 | |
Nebraska | 14 | 128 | 5 | |
Northwestern | 18 | 10 | 2 | |
Ohio State | 12 | 21 | 0 | |
Oklahoma State | 57 | 381 | 8 | |
Oklahoma | 26 | 212 | 3 | |
Oregon | 43 | 435 | 11 | |
Penn State | 23 | 172 | 4 | |
Pittsburgh | 8 | 32 | 0 | |
Syracuse | 60 | 464 | 6 | |
TCU | 44 | 373 | 4 | |
Tennessee | 33 | 418 | 4 | |
Texas A&M | 18 | 117 | 1 | |
Texas Tech | 10 | 143 | 2 | |
Tulane | 38 | 300 | 5 | |
Tulsa | 8 | 93 | 2 | |
UCF | 75 | 589 | 7 | |
Virginia | 44 | 492 | 4 |
Mispriced Player of the Week
Jerand Bradley, WR (Texas Tech)
DraftKings Price: $4,800
Texas Tech leads all teams on the slate with a 61% pass rate. This week the Red Raiders get a TCU team that ranks 74th in points allowed per game (27.2) and is second in points scored per game (44.2). With a projected total of 69.5, this game has the chance to be the highest-scoring game in the slate, and one that DFSers will be dying to stack/correlate.
Wide receiver Jerand Bradley has caught 29 passes for 403 yards and three touchdowns this season and has averaged seven targets per game over the last three weeks. TCU is ranked 88th in PFF pass coverage grade at 70.5, and has allowed nine touchdown passes over the last four weeks.
Bradley ranks second among Texas Tech receivers in receiving yards, is first in targets (53) and is tied for 27th in the nation with 18 deep targets. Underwhelming quarterback play has limited Bradley’s production at times, but he’s posted two 100+ yard games on the season and has seen seven or more targets in five of eight games. AT $4,800, Bradley can triple his value with 14.4 fantasy points -- which feels well within reach a projected shootout. Good luck stacking Bradley with his quarterback, however. Head coach Joey McGuire has already suggested Behren Morton, Tyler Shough and DonoVan Smith could all see action.
Drake Maye, QB (North Carolina)
DraftKings Price: $8,200
If there’s one thing to be learned about college football DFS, it’s that paying up for quarterbacks can be a profitable venture. If you’re going to pay up for a quarterback, however, it’s best to find a versatile playmaker who can get things done with both his arm and his legs.
I just described North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye.
Maye has been a dominant force in DFS contests this season. The redshirt freshman is averaging 37.2 fantasy points per game -- the most of any quarterback on the slate -- but is just the sixth-highest-priced quarterback.
Through eight games, Maye has thrown for 2671-29-3 and has rushed for 536 yards and another three scores per PFF’s quarterback rushing stats. He’s thrown for 300+ yards in all but two games this season, which includes a 301/5 game against a stout Notre Dame defense.
Maye has been one of the most aggressive quarterbacks in the nation, ranking 11th in the nation with 51 deep ball attempts. His 971 yards and 12 touchdowns on deep attempts are both good for second in the nation. He can be paired with a number of receivers -- most notably Josh Downs ($7,800) and Antoine Green ($6,000), but correlating him with Virginia wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks ($5,900) is also very much in play.
Michael Pratt, QB (Tulane)
DraftKings Price: $6,300
The 7-1 Tulane Green Wave take on 3-4 Tulsa this weekend, as Michael Pratt (1718-12-3) looks to lead his team to their eighth win on the season.
Pratt, who is averaging 24.6 fantasy points per game this season is one of the lowest-priced quarterbacks on the slate but is also one of the more conservative. His 5.4 YPA and 8.1 aDOT won’t blow anybody away, but he’s done a good job at limiting turnovers while ranking 10th in the nation in adjusted completion percent (78.9%).
Through seven games, Pratt has thrown for 300+ yards on three occasions and is averaging just under two touchdown passes per game. Per PFF.com’s rushing numbers, Pratt has also taken off for 300 yards and another five scores.
Tulsa has allowed 34+ points in all but one game against FBS opponents this season and is surrendering 392.9 yards per game. To their credit, Tulsa has held opponents to 182.9 passing yards per game -- the 18th-fewest in the nation, but Tulane should be able to move the ball on the ground and find Pratt some scoring opportunities.
Noah Whittington, RB (Oregon)
DraftKings Price: $4,200
In last week’s 42-24 win over Cal, Oregon gave two running backs double digit carries, with Bucky Irving rushing for 10-31-0 and Noah Whittington rushing for 66 yards on 10 carries.
Both backs saw 32 total snaps on the afternoon, while Whittington also caught five-of-five targets for 67 yards and another score. Irving caught all three of his targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. Both backs are very much in play this weekend against a bad Colorado team, but with Irving coming in at $5,800, I prefer the $1,600 discount I can get with Whittington on my roster.
To date, Whittington has rushed for 74-475-2, and has added 10 receptions for 96 additional yards. He and Irving have seen a near 50/50 split of the backfield touches this season, with Irving holding the slight edge. However, in a game that Oregon is currently favored in by 31.5 points, both backs should see plenty of opportunities to turn in productive DFS days.
Devon Achane, RB (Texas A&M)
DraftKings Price: $5,500
This week’s SEC contest between Florida and Texas A&M features two teams that are ranked in the bottom 20 in rushing yards allowed per game. While the Aggies are surrendering 205.6 rushing yards per game, Florida is closely behind -- allowing 191.8 rushing yards per game.
Texas A&M boasts one of the more exciting running backs in the nation in Devon Achane, whose 763 rushing yards are good for 21st-most in the nation. Achane has 960 yards from scrimmage and six total touchdowns to his name, and is coming off back-to-back games in which he’s totaled 25+ touches and 150+ yards.
Priced at $5,500 this weekend, Achane is either going to be one of the best values on the slate, or the folks at DraftKings will have a laugh as everybody chases cheap production from an elite back. Achane is averaging 22.4 fantasy points per game on DraftKings and is one of the most explosive backs in the nation.
Rostering him also gives us the added advantage of a kick returner that’s ranked sixth in average kick return yards (28.4) and has one kick return touchdown on the season.
Julian Fleming, WR (Ohio State)
DraftKings Price: $4,900
The Buckeyes currently sit as 38.5-point favorites heading into Saturday’s game against Northwestern. Julian Fleming has gone for 19-354-6 on the season, with his most productive games coming in blowout wins for the Buckeyes.
With Ohio State projected to win by five or more touchdowns this weekend, I love Fleming at his $4,900 price. The junior receiver is averaging an explosive 18.6 YPR on the season and has proven capable of making big plays after the catch with a 9.1 YAC/REC.
There’s not much else that needs to be explained here. Fleming and the Buckeyes should crush Northwestern this weekend, giving him the chance to pull off a few good plays. Fleming is averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game this season, but that’s factoring in a 4.7-point performance in last week’s win over Penn State, which was one of Ohio State’s closer games of the season. In blowout wins, Fleming has been money.
