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Last week felt like true college football with all of the teams back in action throughout the weekend. The NFL will return as king of the weekend later this week, but for one weekend college football reigned supreme with a buffet of games from Thursday through Monday.
The DFS slate featured a number of exciting games with none more exciting than North Carolina vs. Appalachian State. No longer off my draft radar, UNC’s Drake Maye threw for 352 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for another 76 yards and one score racking up 46.68 points on DraftKings in a stellar performance.
One of my favorite players on the slate, Arkansas’ K.J. Jefferson, managed a solid 32.12 points at $7,400 on the weekend -- a nice value at that price. While BYU’s Chris Brooks ($6,100) helped the Cougars wreck USF on his way to a 23.7-point day.
It was a wild first week, but things are just getting heated up. We’ve got another 14 games set for this weekend, all featuring FBS vs. FBS action.
Taking a look at a week’s worth of data, here are some things to know heading into the week and some players I’ll be targeting.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Play Rates
Team | Pass Rate | Rush Rate |
Air Force | 9.52% | 90.48% |
Alabama | 56.94% | 43.06% |
Appalachian State | 45.56% | 52.22% |
Arkansas | 40.00% | 60.00% |
Colorado | 60.56% | 38.03% |
Houston | 47.06% | 52.94% |
Illinois | 44.91% | 55.09% |
Iowa | 44.83% | 53.45% |
Iowa State | 44.78% | 52.24% |
Kansas State | 37.70% | 62.30% |
Marshall | 38.55% | 61.45% |
Miami | 37.10% | 62.90% |
Missouri | 37.97% | 62.03% |
Notre Dame | 43.75% | 56.25% |
Ohio | 54.29% | 45.71% |
Penn State | 57.53% | 42.47% |
Pittsburgh | 46.77% | 53.23% |
South Carolina | 55.88% | 42.65% |
Southern Mississippi | 17.91% | 76.12% |
Tennessee | 41.86% | 58.14% |
Texas | 52.63% | 45.61% |
Texas A&M | 51.52% | 48.48% |
Texas Tech | 55.56% | 42.86% |
Vanderbilt | 40.94% | 59.06% |
Virginia | 41.67% | 56.94% |
Wake Forest | 47.30% | 52.70% |
Washington State | 67.21% | 32.79% |
Wisconsin | 35.85% | 64.15% |
Quarterback Rush Attempts
Player | Team | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns |
Mike Wright | VANDERBILT | 16 | 253 | 4 |
ARKANSAS | 15 | 84 | 1 | |
AIR FORCE | 11 | 107 | 1 | |
OHIO | 10 | 27 | 1 | |
KANSAS ST | 8 | 53 | 1 | |
HOUSTON | 7 | 66 | 1 | |
ILLINOIS | 6 | 42 | 0 | |
NOTRE DAME | 6 | 37 | 0 | |
SO MISS | 6 | 36 | 0 | |
VIRGINIA | 4 | 105 | 1 | |
MISSOURI | 4 | 60 | 1 | |
COLORADO | 4 | 47 | 0 | |
TEXAS A&M | 4 | 35 | 0 | |
IOWA | 4 | -7 | 0 | |
APP STATE | 3 | 40 | 0 | |
TENNESSEE | 3 | 13 | 2 | |
PITTSBURGH | 2 | 17 | 0 | |
IOWA STATE | 2 | 10 | 0 | |
WAKE | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
WASH STATE | 1 | 24 | 0 | |
TEXAS TECH | 1 | 17 | 0 | |
PENN STATE | 1 | 8 | 1 | |
MIAMI FL | 1 | -3 | 0 | |
ALABAMA | 5 | 107 | 1 | |
MARSHALL | 0 | 15 | 0 | |
S CAROLINA | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
WISCONSIN | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Mispriced Player of the Week
Michael Mayer, TE (Notre Dame)
DraftKings Price: $3,900
Respectfully, I must ask, what are we doing DraftKings?
The fine folks over at DK roll wide receivers and tight ends into one generic “wide receiver” group and have subsequently made Michael Mayer one of the cheapest receivers/tight ends on the slate.
Arguably the best tight end in the nation, Mayer went for 71-840-7 last season -- averaging 16.9 points per game on DraftKings. In his Week 1 performance against Ohio State, Mayer caught a mere five passes for 32 yards but was the only player on Notre Dame to record more than one reception in the game.
Mayer is the top target in Notre Dame’s offense and returns home this weekend for what should be a bounce-back game against Marshall. Quarterback Tyler Buchner also struggled in his first start against Ohio State (177-0-0), which leads me to believe he will also be in line for a rebound performance.
Mayer needs 11.7 points to 3x his price this weekend. Easy game.
Players to Target
Tyler Buchner, QB (Notre Dame)
DraftKings Price: $6,000
As previously mentioned, Notre Dame and the offense struggled in their Week 1 road matchup against Ohio State. Now, they return home to the friendly confines of South Bend in a get-right game against Marshall.
A willing runner, Buchner has a little bit of rushing upside after rushing six times for 37 yards last week. In limited action last season, Buchner rushed for 50+ yards in five contests while also adding three scores on the ground.
It’s worth noting that Notre Dame is entering this game as 20.5-point favorites, meaning Buchner could take an early seat in this one. Even if he is pulled late, a mere 18 points out of Buchner would make him a viable play. Stacking him and Mayer will be one of my favorite plays on the weekend.
Mike Wright, QB (Vanderbilt)
DraftKings Price: $5,400
I can’t help but be intrigued by what Mike Wright has done this season.
Vandy is 2-0 on the season with wins over Hawaii and Elon, but face a legitimate test this weekend against Wake Forest.
Before we get to Wright, a few other things intrigue me about this game.
The first is that Wake Forest is one of the most pass-heavy teams in the nation, throwing at a 51.4% rate last season. And quarterback Sam Hartman is set to return from his brief absence. Hartman was one of the top quarterbacks in the nation last season, throwing for 4,228 yards, 39 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
We also saw several Wake Forest games turn into absolute shootouts, including a 70-56 game against Army, who went blow-for-blow with the Demon Deacons for 60 mins despite attempting just 13 passes on the day.
Wright and the Commodores get the benefit of hosting Wake Forest in this one and have outscored their opponents 105-41 through the first two games. In those games, Wright has thrown for 391 yards and six touchdowns while also rushing for 253 yards and another four scores per PFF.
Wake Forest enters this road game as 13-point favorites, but the total on this game currently sits at 66 -- the second-highest total of any game on the weekend.
Riding a 2-0 record into a big game against Wake Forest, Wright is a cheap way to get in on a potentially high-scoring game. He’s averaging 42.17 fantasy points per game through his first two weeks on DraftKings.
Chase Brown, RB (Illinois)
DraftKings Price: $6,400
With two games already under their belt, Illinois is 1-1 and plays host to Virginia in Week 2. Through those first two games, running back Chase Brown has rushed for 55-350-2 and is the only Illini running back with more than eight carries.
I could be wrong, but it appears the team views him as a bit of a bell cow back. Brown has averaged 32.6 points per game through his first two games and went for 24.5 last week at Indiana in a scoreless effort despite 205 yards from scrimmage.
Virginia is fresh off a 2021 season in which they went 6-6 and allowed 225.8 rushing yards per game to go with 1.8 touchdowns. In their Week 1 game against FCS Richmond they allowed 170 rushing yards and one touchdown in a game that Richmond lost 34-17.
If Illinois is able to keep this one close, Brown looks like a good favorite to lead the offense. He is the 13th-highest price back on the slate but has a legitimate shot to finish as the overall RB1 on the week.
Brad Roberts, RB (Air Force)
DraftKings Price: $6,500
The run-heavy Falcons welcome Colorado this weekend and opened as 14.5-point favorites. That number has since moved to 17.5, but the story of Air Force being a heavy favorite remains the same.
Air Force led the nation in rushing last season and ran it at a 90.48% rate in last week’s win over Northern Iowa.
Running back Brad Roberts led the Mountain West in rushing last season with a line of 297-1358-13, toting the ball 20+ times in nine of 13 games. In last week’s blowout win, he saw just eight carries for 114 yards and one touchdown, with his score coming on a 71-yard touchdown early in the third quarter.
This game should be close enough for Air Force to keep its starters on the field throughout, which should lead to a high-volume day for Roberts, who didn’t see another touch after last week’s long score.
A.T. Perry, WR (Wake Forest)
DraftKings Price: $6,900
Why not just go all in on Wake Forest’s No.1 receiver? A.T. Perry went for an impressive 71-1293-15 last season and has his quarterback returning this week against Vanderbilt.
At 6-foot-5, 206-pounds, it’s easy to figure out why Perry is such a threat with a strong-armed quarterback like Sam Hartman. As if the raw numbers aren’t enough of an indicator, Perry was a force to be reckoned with last season. He averaged a solid 2.66 yards per route run and boasted a 15.6 ADOT. His 33 deep targets tied for seventh-most in the nation while his 618 yards and 10 touchdowns on said deep targets ranked eighth and first, respectively.
We already touched on this game having the potential to be a shootout as the second-highest total on the slate. Vanderbilt, despite its 2-0 start, has faced underwhelming competition out the gate. We’re only months removed from the Commodores’ 2-10 season in which they ranked 119th in points allowed per game (35.8).
Assuming Hartman, Perry and the rest of the Demon Deacons come out firing in this one, there’s no reason to think that Perry won’t be in store for a big day.
Mitchell Tinsley, WR (Penn State)
DraftKings Price: $5,700
After a breakout season at Western Kentucky in which he amassed 87 receptions for 1,402 yards and 14 touchdowns, Mitchell Tinsley decided to test himself by transferring to Penn State to play in the Big Ten. In his Week 1 debut, Tinsley was the No. 1 target for quarterback Sean Clifford, going for 7-84-1 on 12 targets. Fellow wide receivers Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith combined for 6-88-1 on 12 targets.
TOUCHDOWN PENN STATE@PennStateFball scores their first TD of the season and takes the lead in the first half 🙌 pic.twitter.com/0TI7KY53Z0
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 2, 2022
In a competitive game against Purdue, Penn State threw the ball at a 57.53% rate -- one that will likely come down this weekend against Ohio. However, the Lions rolled out a three-man committee at running back, suggesting that little has been solved in their ground game while they appear more than comfortable with entrusting the offense in the hands of a sixth-year quarterback in Clifford.
The line on this game currently sits at Penn State -25.5. But Tinsley doesn’t need to have a crazy performance to pay off at this week’s price. Should the Lions stay somewhat aggressive through the air in this one, I like Tinsley as a pivot off of Parker Washington ($6,100).
Trey Knox, TE (Arkansas)
DraftKings Price: $4,100
Facing Cincinnati in Week 1, former wide receiver, now tight end Trey Knox led all Arkansas receivers with a receiving line of 6-75-2 on seven targets.
At 6-foot-5, 233-pounds, Knox has excellent size for a tight end and has the hands of a wide receiver -- which also seems good. Knox earned the highest PFF receiving grade (73.9) among any SEC tight end in Week 1, finding the end zone from five and 32-yards out.
HES A TIGHT END pic.twitter.com/RL7za0fS4t
— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) September 3, 2022
Making bets on DFS tight ends can be a risky proposition, but Knox led the team in all receiving numbers last week - including targets. Arkansas plays host to South Carolina this week in what should be another competitive game. Quarterback K.J. Jefferson is still in search of a new top target after Treylon Burks left for the NFL Draft. It’s unlikely that Knox is that top target throughout the season, but if he is, Knox’s $4,100 price tag feels more than palatable for a player with his background and pedigree.
Jalin Hyatt, WR (Tennessee)
DraftKings Price: $6,200
As this moves into the territory of being perhaps the longest DFS article I’ll write this season, I need to touch on Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt.
Playing in a road game against Pitt, the total in this one currently sits at 66.5. Pitt and West Virginia had an exciting Week 1 tilt that ended in a 38-31 shootout, but Tennessee and quarterback Hendon Hooker should offer a bit more of a challenge in Week 2, with the Vols coming in as 6.5-point road favorites.
In last week’s blowout win against Ball State, Jalin Hyatt saw all 21 of his snaps come in the slot. He caught two-of-four targets for 28 yards and one touchdown, but this came in a game that the Vols led 38-0 in halftime.
Rather than take Cedric Tillman at his $7,300 price, I’d prefer to take a shot on Hyatt in a potentially high-scoring affair. If you’re feeling wildly courageous, you can roster Bru McCoy for $5,300. McCoy went for 3-42-0 on five targets last week and should serve as Tennessee’s No. 2 outside receiver.