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If there’s one thing I learned from Week 2 of the college football season, it’s that the Mike Wright Hive is all but dispersed after last week’s performance.
One of my favorite DFS touts of the week, Wright ($5,400) and the 2-0 Commodores were unable to hang with Wake Forest -- falling 45-25 while Wright threw for 35 yards and one interception on 8-of-15 passing before being benched.
I’ll need the full week to recover from his one-point performance on DraftKings.
On the flip side, Air Force running back Brad Roberts ($6,500) turned in one of the best performances on the slate. Roberts exploded for 37.4 fantasy points on the day while rushing for 24-174-3 on a day that could have been much bigger if not for some Air Force fumbles.
My favorite value play of the week, Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer ($3,900) was another player who likely put you in the money. Despite an atrocious home loss to Marshall (or perhaps thanks to), Mayer was on the field throughout the day and posted a receiving line of 8-103-1 on a team-high 12 targets.
Here’s a full look at my picks from last week and how they played out.
With Week 3 of the college football season now upon us, let’s take a look at some of my favorite plays on the slate.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Play Rates
Team | Pass Rate | Rush Rate |
Auburn | 0.33 | 0.63 |
BYU | 0.53 | 0.47 |
California | 0.55 | 0.44 |
Cincinnati | 0.60 | 0.40 |
Colorado | 0.61 | 0.38 |
Georgia | 0.61 | 0.39 |
Georgia Tech | 0.46 | 0.54 |
Houston | 0.51 | 0.47 |
Indiana | 0.57 | 0.42 |
Kansas | 0.43 | 0.56 |
Miami (OH) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
Minnesota | 0.32 | 0.68 |
Nebraska | 0.47 | 0.53 |
Northern Illinois | 0.43 | 0.57 |
Notre Dame | 0.50 | 0.50 |
Oklahoma | 0.45 | 0.55 |
Ole Miss | 0.46 | 0.54 |
Oregon | 0.49 | 0.51 |
Penn State | 0.60 | 0.40 |
Purdue | 0.58 | 0.42 |
South Alabama | 0.49 | 0.50 |
South Carolina | 0.59 | 0.40 |
Syracuse | 0.39 | 0.61 |
UCLA | 0.48 | 0.49 |
Vanderbilt | 0.42 | 0.58 |
Western Kentucky | 0.51 | 0.47 |
Quarterback Rush Attempts
Player | Team | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns |
Auburn | 12 | 129 | 0 | |
T.J. Finley | Auburn | 3 | 19 | 1 |
BYU | 9 | 54 | 0 | |
CAL | 1 | 24 | 0 | |
CAL | 1 | -1 | 0 | |
Cincinnati | 2 | 13 | 0 | |
J.T. Shrout | Colorado | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Colorado | 4 | 47 | 0 | |
Georgia | 4 | 12 | 2 | |
Georgia Tech | 12 | 103 | 0 | |
Houston | 10 | 78 | 1 | |
Indiana | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
Kansas | 15 | 113 | 1 | |
Aveon Smith | Miami (OH) | 4 | 40 | 0 |
Henry Hesson | Miami (OH) | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Minnesota | 5 | 26 | 3 | |
Northern Illinois | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
Nebraska | 8 | 68 | 4 | |
Notre Dame | 15 | 89 | 2 | |
Notre Dame | 0 | 13 | 0 | |
Oklahoma | 4 | 30 | 1 | |
Ole Miss | 4 | 45 | 0 | |
Ole Miss | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
Oregon | 6 | 55 | 0 | |
Penn State | 3 | 44 | 2 | |
Purdue | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
South Alabama | 2 | 51 | 1 | |
South Carolina | 0 | 34 | 0 | |
Syracuse | 15 | 167 | 3 | |
Mike Wright | Vanderbilt | 20 | 272 | 4 |
Western Kentucky | 8 | 47 | 1 |
Mispriced Player of the Week
Antwane Wells Jr, WR (South Carolina)
DraftKings Price: $4,200
This week’s slate features either a lot of difficult matchups or a blow out -- making this week’s mispriced player a tough one to land on.
However, assuming Georgia doesn’t completely put the clamps on the Gamecocks this weekend, I think our mispriced guy could be Antwane Wells.
A transfer from James Madison University, Wells has reeled in 15 receptions for 244 yards and one touchdown on the year. Last week against Arkansas he went for 8-189-1, finishing with 35.9 points on DraftKings.
Wells has been the clearcut WR1 for South Carolina through two weeks. His 18 targets lead all players, with running back MarShawn Lloyd ranking second with 12 targets.
Of course, Georgia could find a way to completely lock down Wells in this one. But the Gamecocks enter this one as 24.5-point home dogs and should be throwing often in this one. They’re also one of the more pass-heavy teams on the slate, having thrown on 59% of plays this season.
At $4,200, Wells would need 12.6 points to return value at his price -- which feels within reach if Georgia doesn’t completely take him away.
Jalon Daniels, QB (Kansas)
DraftKings Price: $6,500
Through two games, the Kansas Jayhawks are 2-0 after winning just two games all of last season.
A big reason for their early-season success is Jalon Daniels. On the year, Daniels has completed 33-of-47 passes or 408 yards, four touchdowns and one interception while also rushing for 15-113-1. He went on the road last week to face a tough West Virginia team, and walked away with a 219-3-0 performance through the air while also rushing 12 time for 84 yards. His 29.26 DraftKings would have been more than 4x his $6,500 price on this weekend’s slate.
Daniels and the Jayhawks face no small task this Saturday when they travel to Houston to face Dana Holgorsen‘s stout Cougars defense, but with a projected total currently sitting at 59 points, this one could be fun.
If you’re looking to stack Daniels with one of his pass catchers, wide receivers Lawrence Arnold ($6,700, 7-86-0) and Luke Grimm ($5,100, 8-93-0) are the team leaders in targets, while tight end Mason Fairchild ($4,900) leads the team with two touchdowns. Fairchild’s production overall has been relatively unimpressive, as he’s caught just 3-of-6 targets for 16 yards to go with his two scores.
Bo Nix, QB (Oregon)
DraftKings Price: $5,500
In his Week 1 debut, Bo Nix and the rest of his crew took a 49-3 beating at the hands of Georgia. In Week 2, Nix and the Ducks bounced back with a 70-14 win over Eastern Washington, as Nix threw for 277 yards and five touchdowns while completing 28-of-33 pass.
Now Nix and the Ducks get a home matchup against BYU in a game that should be competitive throughout, with the Ducks opening as 3.5-point favorites.
It’s unlikely that Nix throws for another five scores in this one, but we don’t need that kind of performance for him to pay off at a $5,500 price.
Known at times for his erratic passes, Nix just needs to avoid big mistakes in this one while keep Oregon’s drives alive.
There are several interesting players to stack with Nix in this one as well with a sort of “pick your poison” approach. The two I’ll touch on here are wide receiver Chase Cota and tight end Terrance Ferguson.
Cota, who transferred over from UCLA after last season has caught 5-of-8 targets for 41 yards on the season and leads all receivers with 65 routes run. The folks at DraftKings don’t know this, as Cota is the $3,000 minimum on the weekend. Ferguson on the other hand is a mere $3,500 on the weekend but has caught 7-of-9 targets for 72 yards and two touchdowns. Both of Ferguson’s scores came against Eastern Washington last weekend, but he saw a solid six targets in the blowout loss to Georgia.
Treyson Potts, RB (Minnesota)
DraftKings Price: $6,400
If you want, you can pay the premium for Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim ($9,400). Ibrahim is the most expensive back on the slate -- leading Syracuse’s Sean Tucker by $500 ($8,900).
However, the Robin to Ibrahim’s Batman, Trey Potts, is coming in at a $6,400 price in a home game the Gophers enter as 27.5-point favorites.
Potts and Ibrahim have split touches through the first two weeks of the season, with Ibrahim rushing for 43-260-4, and Potts going for 27-168-3. Both Ibrahim and Potts -- who play on a team that’s boasting a 68% rush rate -- should see plenty of opportunities to run in a game that will feature a very positive game script.
Minnesota has blown out their first two opponents on the way to a 2-0 start, and should move to 3-0 after this week. After Potts, it’s running back Bryce Williams who ranks third on the team with 12 rush attempts -- more than half of what Potts has received.
A two-touchdown day for Potts against a Colorado team that allowed 6.2 yards per carry last week against Air Force, should be enough to make Potts worth the pick.
Quinshon Judkins, RB (Ole Miss)
DraftKings Price: $3,500
Put your galaxy brains on for a moment and hear me out.
Ole Miss travels to Georgia Tech this weekend and open as 16-point favorites. Through their first two games, the Rebels have outscored their opponents by a score of 87-13, with Quinshon Judkins getting a ton of run in these blowouts.
To date, Judkins has rushed for 24-191-1 on 29 snaps, averaging an impressive 5.5 yards after contact per attempt. Saturday’s matchup against Georgia Tech won’t be as easy as the games Ole Miss saw against Troy and Central Arkansas, but it should turn into a win regardless.
If this game stays close, Judkins could still be a factor. His 29 snaps are just six behind starting running back Zach Evans, and we know head coach Lane Kiffin likes to split his backfield touches. In 2021, Jerrion Ealy led all Ole Miss backs with 133 carries, while Snoop Conner toted the rock 130 times. In 2020 Ealy saw 54 more carries than Conner, but the 2019 Rebels saw their top two running backs tally 125 carries and 104 carries, respectively.
Judkins has the chance to smash as one of the cheapest backs on the slate. His production this far has been highly impressive.
D.J. Matthews Jr., WR (Indiana)
DraftKings Price: $5,900
Cam Camper, WR (Indiana)
DraftKings Price: $4,800
I’m doubling down on Indiana receivers this weekend in what could be a fun matchup against Western Kentucky.
Last season, Indiana struggled to the tune of a 2-10 record, throwing at a 52% rate. Now, the Hoosiers have jumped to a 57% pass rate through two games behind quarterback Connor Bazelak, who threw for 330-1-1 against a stout Illinois defense in Week 1. Heading into this weekend’s matchup, the Hoosiers are 2-0 despite a close call last week against Idaho.
At $6,200 on the weekend, Bazelak could be another interesting play, but I wanted to touch on D.J. Matthews Jr. and Cam Camper.
Playing in Indiana’s high-volume passing attack, Matthews and Camper have combined to see 43 targets while going for 25-359-2.
Both Camper and Matthews have clearly defined roles, with Matthews seeing 100% of his snaps come from the slot. Camper, on the other hand, has lined up out wide on 90.2% of his snaps.
Indiana and Western Kentucky are two of the heavier passing teams on the slate. Matthews is tied as the 18th highest-priced receiver on the slate, while Camper is the 27th highest-priced receiver.
Caullin Lacy, WR (South Alabama)
DraftKings: $4,100
South Alabama travels to UCLA this weekend and enters as 15.5-point underdogs. The Jaguars have established themselves as an aggressive passing team early on the year, having thrown at a 51% rate on their way to a 2-0 start.
Wide receiver Jalen Wayne ($5,500) leads the team with 12 receptions for 193 yards and three touchdowns on 20 targets, but slot receiver Caullin Lacy trails closely behind with a line of 11-169-0 on 13 targets.
South Alabama will likely face a negative game script in this one, but shouldn’t be down enough to pull their starters. I like Wayne as a value in this one but I think Lacy could also be a cheap play that allows you to get pricer at another position.
Troy Franklin, WR (Oregon)
DraftKings: $4,900
Troy Franklin gets his own tout separate from Oregon pass-catchers Chase Cota and Terrance Ferguson.
Through two games, Franklin ranks second on the team in routes run (54) but leas the team with 12 receptions for 118 yards and one touchdown on 12 targets. The 6-foot-3, 178-pound wide receiver was held to just three receptions for 34 yards in Week 1 against Georgia but went off for 10-84-1 against Eastern Washington.
Much like Bo Nix, the hope is that some of what we saw in Week 2 translates to Week 3 against BYU. Franklin didn’t make many big plays last week against Eastern Washington, posting just a 3.8 ADOT on the afternoon, but it’s hard to sleep on a 10-target performance.
Like every other Oregon pass-catcher, Franklin is a dirt-cheap player on this weekend’s slate.
