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Week 3 featured an exciting 13-game DFS main slate.
Of all the games on the slate, perhaps the most exciting was the one played between Kansas and Houston. Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels ($6,500) threw for 158 yards and three scores while rushing for 123 yards and another two touchdowns in Kansas’ 48-30 upset win over the Cougars. With 45.6 points, Daniels with the overall QB1 on the DraftKings main slate.
Oregon’s Bo Nix ($5,500) threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another three scores, and was the overall QB2 on the DK main slate.
On the whole, it was a solid day for some of my favorite Week 3 plays. The full breakdown is below.
My mispriced player of the week, Antwane Wells, fell flat on his face with a donut against Georgia. Funny enough, I mentioned the possibility of Georgia completely shutting him down, but didn’t think a total dud was possible from South Carolina’s WR1 in a negative game script.
Perhaps I will reconsider recommending plays against one of the nation’s best defense in future articles!
With Week 3 in the books, we’re officially on to Week 4. Here’s a look at the matchups on this weekend’s main slate.
With several conference matchups on the radar in this one, let’s have look at some of my favorite players on the week.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Play Rates
Team | Pass Rate | Rush Rate |
Auburn | 0.42 | 0.55 |
Baylor | 0.42 | 0.58 |
Central Michigan | 0.56 | 0.43 |
Cincinnati | 0.60 | 0.40 |
Clemson | 0.52 | 0.48 |
Duke | 0.46 | 0.54 |
Florida | 0.43 | 0.55 |
Indiana | 0.60 | 0.40 |
Iowa State | 0.53 | 0.45 |
Kansas | 0.41 | 0.58 |
Maryland | 0.49 | 0.50 |
Michigan | 0.42 | 0.58 |
Michigan State | 0.49 | 0.50 |
Minnesota | 0.31 | 0.69 |
Missouri | 0.41 | 0.54 |
North Carolina | 0.49 | 0.51 |
Notre Dame | 0.45 | 0.55 |
Oregon | 0.43 | 0.56 |
Penn State | 0.53 | 0.47 |
SMU | 0.54 | 0.44 |
TCU | 0.47 | 0.53 |
Tennessee | 0.46 | 0.54 |
Texas | 0.54 | 0.45 |
Texas Tech | 0.61 | 0.38 |
Wake Forest | 0.53 | 0.46 |
Washington State | 0.64 | 0.35 |
Quarterback Rush Attempts
Player | Team | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns |
Auburn | 15 | 176 | 0 | |
Baylor | 4 | 57 | 2 | |
Central Michigan | 2 | 30 | 0 | |
Cincinnati | 4 | 21 | 0 | |
Clemson | 19 | 145 | 1 | |
Duke | 13 | 164 | 2 | |
Florida | 16 | 139 | 3 | |
Indiana | 8 | 18 | 0 | |
Iowa State | 14 | 52 | 1 | |
Kansas | 25 | 232 | 3 | |
Maryland | 9 | 71 | 1 | |
Michigan State | 8 | 77 | 0 | |
Michigan | 6 | 75 | 1 | |
Minnesota | 7 | 32 | 3 | |
Missouri | 12 | 168 | 1 | |
North Carolina | 12 | 158 | 1 | |
Notre Dame | 2 | 30 | 0 | |
Oregon | 13 | 90 | 3 | |
Penn State | 8 | 60 | 3 | |
SMU | 3 | 39 | 0 | |
TCU | 6 | 50 | 0 | |
Tennessee | 12 | 101 | 2 | |
Texas | 1 | 70 | 0 | |
Texas Tech | 17 | 104 | 2 | |
Wake Forest | 8 | 40 | 0 | |
Washington State | 6 | 31 | 0 |
Mispriced Player of the Week
Donovan Ollie, WR (Washington State)
DraftKings Price: $3,500
Desperately in need of a rebound here, I’m shooting my shot on another receiver who:
- Is leading his team in receiving (19/183/2)
- Wildly mispriced on DraftKings -- because that’s the bit.
Through three weeks, Donovan Ollie has led the Cougars in receiving and is playing on a team that’s throwing at a 64% rate. Ollie also leads the team in routes run on the season (102) and is one of the more frequent route runners on this weekend’s slate.
Playing against an Oregon team that is allowing a 52% success rate on passing plays, Washington State should have plenty of opportunities to move the ball in this one. The Cougars are also aided by the fact they play this one at home.
Quarterback Cameron Ward is off to a hot start for the 3-0 Cougars, completing 64.7% of his passes for 722/8/3 on the year.
Ollie needs just 10.5 points to triple his Week 4 price against the Ducks. It seems like a small hill to climb for a top receiver on a pass-heavy team.
Cameron Ward, QB (Washington State)
DraftKings: $5,000
After hyping Ollie as my mispriced player of the week, stacking him with Ward feels like the obvious decision.
At $5,000, Ward is the 40th (!!!!!) most expensive quarterback on the slate. A truly free player.
Ward has been a relatively conservative passer through three weeks, posting a 6.8 ADOT on the season. He’s attempted just eight passes of 20+ yards, completing two for 60 yards while also throwing an interception.
A transfer from Incarnate Word, Ward may still have some adjusting to do at the FBS level. His matchup this week against Oregon is his biggest test to date, but it’s hard to pass on a Ward/Ollie stack that only costs you 17% of your cap space.
Ward is averaging 19.8 points per game on DraftKings.
Drew Pyne, QB (Notre Dame)
DraftKings: $5,400
I should know better than to do this, but Drew Pyne going up against a Tar Heels defense that’s allowing 37.7 points per game intrigues me.
Pyne got the start for the Irish last week against Cal after quarterback Tyler Buchner (shoulder) was lost for the season, and led the Irish to their first win of the season. Far from an elite performance, Pyne went 17-for-23 passing for 150 yards and two touchdowns -- good for 13.7 fantasy points.
He’ll need to do a little more than that to return value at his $5,400 price point, but the Tar Heels defense has been in shambles to start the season.
In addition to allowing 37.7 points per game, North Carolina ranks near the bottom of the nation in passing success rate allowed (48%) and is 119th in predicted points added (64.8) per College Football Data.
Notre Dame’s offense hasn’t been good. But on the other side of this argument is a North Carolina defense that’s allowing 310.0 passing yards per game and 3.7 touchdown passes per game. Correlating Pyne with UNC quarterback Drake Maye ($6,900) will be another one of my favorite moves on the week.
The Tar Heels’ defense has turned Maye into a fantasy god, as the freshman quarterback has thrown for 930/11/1 while also rushing for 12/158/1. Maye is averaging 34.9 points per game on DraftKings -- the most of any quarterback on this weekend’s slate. There’s a chance he’s a chalky play this weekend, but he’s still underpriced.
Blake Corum, RB (Michigan)
DraftKings Price: $7,900
I don’t love paying up for running backs, but this weekend is the exception.
College football is ripe with traditions, and Maryland looks to continue a growing tradition this weekend against Michigan.
That tradition you ask? Torpedoing a hot start by ushering in Big Ten play. Last year the Terps started 4-0 before a 51-14 home thrashing against Iowa brought their undefeated start to an end. Maryland only played five games in 2020 (COVID) and went 2-3 in Big Ten play, and in 2019 the Terps got off to a 2-1 start before losing 59-0 to Penn State in another Big Ten opener.
Maryland’s 3-0 start will likely come to an end this weekend at Michigan, and the run-heavy Wolverines could be in for a big day.
On the year, Michigan ranks fourth in the nation in rushing success rate (60%), with Blake Corum leading the way. Michigan’s RB1 has rushed 34 times for 235 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s averaging a solid 3.68 YCO/ATT, and has forced a missed tackle on 38% of his carries.
I can’t overlook the fact that Michigan has faced a wildly easy schedule, opening the season against Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn, but Corum averaged over 17 points per game last season while play in a timeshare with Hassan Haskins.
Corum is Michigan’s lead back. He’ll need a big game to payoff here, but this weekend’s slate is a tough one to navigate at the running back position with several high-priced backs drawing difficult matchups.
At the time this article is being written, Michigan is favored by 16.5 points. Count me in on #CorumSZN this week.
Nick Singleton, RB (Penn State)
DraftKings Price: $6,400
The No. 1 running back of the 2022 recruiting class, Nick Singleton has found himself in a timeshare to start the season.
Despite the split, Singleton is clearly the best back on Penn State’s roster, with back-to-back 100+ yard performances against Ohio and Auburn.
In those games, Singleton totaled 20 carries for 303 and four touchdowns, which included a 10-124-2 performance against Auburn last week. When you consider that running back Kaytron Allen ($3,900) is Penn State’s second-leading rusher on the year with 23-106-2, it’s tempting to pivot off of Singleton in this one. However, Singleton could run wild on Central Michigan in a game the Lions enter as 26-point favorites.
Allen could still be in play as a garbage-time back, but I’d hate to miss out on James Franklin cutting Singleton loose this week.
Xavier Hutchinson, WR (Iowa State)
DraftKings Price: $6,700
Through three games, Xavier Hutchinson has gone for 28-319-5 on a team-high 40 targets. The next closest receiver on the Cyclones has seen 17 targets (Jaylin Noel).
Facing a stout Iowa defense, Hutchinson went for 11-98-1 and is averaging 31 points per game on DraftKings.
One of the more pass-heavy teams on this week’s slate, Iowa State is throwing at a 53% rate. Ranking 48th in the nation in passing success rate (47.3%), it’s no surprise that the Cyclones want to continue airing it out whenever they get a chance.
They draw a tough matchup against a Baylor team that’s allowing just 290.3 yards per game to go with 14.3 points per game, but Baylor has benefitted from soft matchups against Albany and Texas State. In Week 2 against a more competitive BYU team, the Bears fell 26-20 in a game where they allowed 283 passing yards and two scores.
Hutchinson is averaging a solid 3.39 Y/RR and has seen snaps both out wide and in the slot. If you want to get in on a stack here, Iowa State quarterback Hunter Dekkers ($5,500) has gone for 745/8/3 on the young season and has 14 carries to his name.
Jalon Calhoun, WR (Duke)
DraftKings Price: $6,100
Last week against North Carolina A&T, Jalon Calhoun saw a zero catch day on one target in a game the Blue Devils won 49-20. It was a weird outing for Calhoun, who caught 12-of-17 targets for 198 yards through Duke’s first two games, but Duke led this one 28-6 at halftime and ran the ball 34 times on the afternoon.
He hasn’t appeared in any injury news over the last week, which leads me to believe Calhoun’s performance had everything to do with a blowout win over an inferior opponent.
Even with a one-target performance to his name, Calhoun is Duke’s No. 1 receiver through the first three weeks. In Week 2 he put forth an impressive 6/108 outing against Northwestern while drawing a team-high nine targets on the afternoon.
With a career ADOT of 6.7 and a career Y/RR of 1.76, Calhoun doesn’t exactly take the top off a defense. But he’s proven to be a reliable player with the ball in his hands, averaging a solid 13.4 YPR over the last two seasons to go with a 6.7 YAC/REC.
The undefeated Blue Devils draw a matchup with 3-0 Kansas this weekend in a game the Jayhawks are favored in by 7.5-points. Even with their undefeated start, Kansas ranks 111th in defensive success rate against the pass (48%). Perhaps even more encouraging is the fact that the over/under for this game currently sits at 66 -- suggesting we have a shootout on our hands.
A Kansas/Duke onslaught could be a fun way to get action on this game, with Duke quarterback Riley Leonard ($6,000) and Kansas’ Jalon Daniels ($7,900) both in line for big days in what could be a high-scoring affair.